Harness: Guessing game could be in play if the baby-racing season is delayed

It's mid-April, foals are dropping, and mares are being re-bred. At this point, competitive racing has ceased, with only the sketchiest timetables set for restoration. Racing will resume at some point, though damned if anyone can pinpoint just when.

This year's yearling crop has long been segregated by sex and they are growing rapidly, literally before our very eyes. Grass is noticeable and in some northern areas, greening and growing. Trees are showing color and undoubtedly, dandelions are visible along with crocus and early daffodil.

Last year's yearling crop, now fully-fledged 2-year-olds, are going through their early "paces" and "trots" with many in the 2:20-ish range or faster in the southern training areas. It's been a good season thus far in South Florida with little time lost to inclement weather.

Given the uncharacteristically mild winter, especially in the Northeast, those colts and fillies up there can’t be too far behind at least at this point.

Many of the Southern-based 3-year-olds are at or close to qualifying time and I’d imagine their Northern counterparts can’t be far behind, either.

Many of the Southern-based 3-year-olds-and-up theoretically are within a couple of weeks of being ready to "ship out" with May just around the corner.

The question quickly becomes, then what?

Without a reasonable timetable of when racing can resume, the following things become problematic. Shipping North will be delayed considerably. Horses will be trained but many may be backed off. If this drags on for months, some 2-year-olds will likely be turned out, though the most promising will be kept at it as long as possible.

Then again, it's hard to determine precisely which are the most promising until one gets closer to qualifying time, though most trainers can make a reasonably accurate educated guess. Of course, if soundness is an issue, that’s a different story.

Meanwhile the yearlings are growing and more foals will have dropped.

Whereas yearling preparation won’t start until mid-summer, the longer the cessation of racing continues, the increasing likelihood is that some, if not many of last year’s yearling crop, now 2-year-olds, will be considered unknown quantities regardless of last year’s price tags.

That said, how many buyers will enthusiastically return to the yearling market this fall not fully knowing just what it is they purchased last year?

As for the 3-year-olds, those that raced at age 2 last year, at least provide some measure of comfort in terms of they showed previously. However, not all brilliant 2-year-olds display equal brilliance at age 3.

Those 3-year-olds unraced at 2 are in a similar boat as this year’s 2-year-olds, but at least they’ve been further along to provide a better semblance of their inherent ability. Of course, training in near racetrack-time and racing in racetrack-time is not nearly the same, though at least you see what they can do to a reasonable degree.

If this catastrophe continues indefinitely, some mare owners, especially with late-foaling mares, may elect simply not to rebreed this year.

As far as providing a year off for a broodmare, that in itself is not such a bad thing, although it will negatively influence the yearling crop of 2022.

The yearlings, meanwhile, have no choice but to continue to grow and there may not be sufficient room to warehouse those unable to be sold should this scenario linger into summer and some of them are less viable than expected.

Whereas the fall sales seem likely to happen at this point, considering the above scenarios, one wonders how many yearlings will bring satisfactory prices. Certainly, there is likelihood buyers will be reticent to spend without fully knowing the results of what they purchased the year before.

Some yearlings might not be sold; simple as that. However, by June, the bulk of last year’s breeding choices will now be weanlings needing weaning come fall. Thus, they’ll need those pastures and paddocks currently occupied by this year’s yearling crop.

Egads!

Of course, the possibility exists that everything will be back to "normal" by mid-June when the babies typically start qualifying and the above points will be moot. But it is no doubt a scary thought to think about the prospect of selling a yearling with owners a bit light in the pocket due to lack of stakes racing and newer stallions having no on-track proof from their progeny.