Harness: Great game when underdogs prove best

We live in a world where popular opinion polls decide for many what is right and what is wrong. That polls are amassed on a minute-by-minute basis and decisions are made based on what people believe at the moment, it was more than refreshing to find that the June 29 Sun Stakes program’s results as a lesson for all that popular opinion is not always the best indicator of predicting the future. Sometimes there are forces at work that the populous can only imagine they actually know what will happen.

As we know, there have been voices of disapproval about pretty much everything that goes on in our lives. In racing, specifically the Sun Stakes, there has been criticism that it is not fair that elimination race winners don’t get to choose post positions. There have been some who complained about the proximity of the Max Hempt Memorial in that it is positioned between the North America Cup and Meadowlands Pace and therefore not the perfect vehicle to derive the best horses possible. Left from that perspective, the obvious factors that many Ontario horses nominate to the North America Cup and never come to the States, as well as the restrictions put on nomination and sustaining payments at The Meadowlands that seemingly kept the actual sponsor of The Meadowlands Pace and co-owner of the Hempt winner from participating this year.

Needless to say some of those opinions may actually be the majority but none of them have an absolute power to be right based on numbers alone. This past Saturday may have been upsetting to many. Certainly by popular opinion when four favorites go down the theoretical majority of people (betting dollars are not necessarily divided equally among players) are wrong. And that’s a good thing.

What stood out in my perspective on Sun Stakes night was not the upsets but the factors that led to those upsets taking place. It is my belief that those four races proved without a doubt that post positions alone do not guarantee victory. They proved that having multiple horses in a race was not a significant indicator that teaming up would prove successful. They proved that entering a race with a winning record, or winning at all in 2019, was not in fact necessary in order to capture a major stakes event.

Saturday’s Sun Stakes proved that no matter how a race shapes up on paper, the printer’s ink does not define what eight-or-nine drivers will choose to do once the gate unfolds.

The biggest upset of the night was earth-shaking to those who didn’t back race-winner Marseille in the $500,000 Earl Beal Jr. Memorial, and that was a large majority with Greenshoe the 1-10 betting favorite and the Ake Svanstedt trained and driven Marseille at 55-1. That Ake left the gate really should have come as no surprise to anyone in that he’s never shied away from the gate in big or small races. It actually seems to be something Svanstedt specializes in, and that is getting his horses to rapidly accelerate at the outset of a race. Marseille had the explosiveness at the start and it seemed to shock some of the other drivers and paralyze one behind the heavy favorite.

Svanstedt’s boldness at the start would not have been enough to guarantee victory. What happened after the first quarter in the Beal is what gave the race leader and his driver all the advantage they would need. In a word, nothing happened.

That’s right, despite a very long straight available to any driver that wished to make up ground without sacrificing speed on a turn, only Yannick Gingras behind Osterc pulled to the outside and that came as the field entered the second turn and neared the halfway point. By that time, Svanstedt’s charge had already trotted a second quarter above 30 seconds that led some of my colleagues to suggest the judges hit him with a fine. I have to believe Brian Sears’ decision to sacrifice so much early position with Greenshoe and then wait idly through the second quarter, was worthy of more judges’ attention.

As the saying goes, hindsight is 20-20, and the purpose of this analysis is just to point out that despite the percentages indicating that the three best horses on paper with the three best drivers on paper would be more likely to succeed in this venture, Svanstedt turned the tables on them and in this particular case found a path to victory with a horse that may not prove to be the best over time.

While the Beal will likely be remembered for it’s lack of second-quarter movement, all three other stakes events at The Downs at Mohegan Sun Pocono derived incredible action in the first three-eighths of the mile and significant action from the half going forward. While it can be conceded to some degree that Pocono favors speed, or at least those quite near the lead, the five-eighths oval also gives ample straightaways for high-end excitement to unfold. Neither Warrawee Ubeaut nor Treacherous Reign captured the $300,000 James Lynch Memorial yet each played a pivotal roll in making it one heck of a horse race. It took driver Dexter Dunn and the Fan Hanover winner three-eighths to clear the front from eventual race winner Stonebridge Soul and that certainly figured to take some of the starch out of the Captaintreacherous-sired filly. That’s why when Yannick Gingras came charging at her at the halfway mark it appeared destined that world champion Warrawee Ubeaut would just blow past the leader on to victory. That Dunn and Treacherous Reign were able to keep her parked was astonishing, but the two were effective and thus paved the way for Tim Tetrick to overtake them late with Stonebridge Soul.

It was only poetic justice to me that Gingras was rewarded later in the evening for the early speed he showed with This Is The Plan in the $500,000 Ben Franklin. In my mind this was a tactical race where trainer Rene Allard had two with chances of winning with the speedster Western Fame and the noted closer Springsteen. Caught in the middle of the action, Gingras put This Is The Plan on the point and then was covered by Western Fame and driver Dan Dube. Also caught was Brian Sears behind McWicked, as he knew any strong first over move by him and his charge would provide ample cover to Springsteen. Sears slow-played it up the backstretch and Dube accelerated with Western Fame hoping to gain separation. The strategy didn’t hold up for Dube or Sears as Gingras made the most and was able to coax enough out of the previous winless-in-2019 This Is The Plan to score at 12-1.

To me the Sun Stakes provided a glimpse into the sport that paves the way for those to dream big no matter what the odds. That Brassy Hanover, a $23,000 yearling, would fly home to be second at 45-1 in the Hempt despite entering the race with just one overnight win in 10 career starts, proves the point perfectly.

Many of the Sun Stakes horses are racing Saturday at The Meadowlands. Hopefully the results are equally interesting.