Harness: Few can buck the trend of the third-year stallion blues

There are some businesses you question why anyone would want to go into. First on my list of those enterprises would be standardbred breeding farms. In an age when everyone is looking to make a buck quickly, breeding horses is a business that requires a large investment in money, property and most definitely time. If you don't have all three there's no point getting started.

Over the years we've seen countless owners look to increase their own personal fortunes by turning a yearling into a champion and then reaping the rewards once a horse becomes a stallion. The formula for each is quite different, but for many having a top sire that prospers for years can be rewarding both on and off the track. That said, no stallion career can be made without the accompaniment of quality mares, and while some racehorse owners like the prospect of eventually coming up with a stallion, many just look to get paid stud fees and leave the breeding business to those with more time and perhaps money.

What's been fascinating to me over the course of time is how treacherous the path to stallion success can be and how faith in a particular horse can vary depending on many variables, with luck perhaps the most important of them all.

The first year at stud for any retired champion tends to attract the highest caliber of mares the horse will likely see in its new career. Those who breed are hopeful there is strong interest at the yearling sale in order to recoup an investment that includes a stud fee and nearly three years of expenses, with roughly two of those spent on the resulting foal. Through the passage of that time frame, the breeder needs to make decisions on who to mate his mare with the next year. Some involved in stallion syndication will remain loyal to their own horse in the second year while others may look for the new kid on the block, essentially the next first-year stallion to come along.

The decisions add up as does the expense, and years pass with just mares being bred to a stallion and no horses to watch on the racetrack. Sure, you'll hear glowing reports of just how great the first crop looks perhaps moments after the first foal drops, but none of those will guarantee success on the racetrack two years later.

Then comes year three. Essentially, it's the one that everyone is betting totally blind and taking more risk than in years one and two. The reason is because any mare bred in the third year of a stallion's career may find the resulting foal's potential yearling price at the mercy of the success of the first crop on the racetrack. This is no small detail, and it pales in comparison from a risk perspective to years one and two. There are few black marks a stallion can have in years one and two, but year three's offspring can run into strong headwinds should a viable top stakes performer not emerge from a first-crop pedigree. That's essentially how the business has been run for years and that third-year hole could be a make or break for some stallions while others that see first-year success are likely to see business pick up once again in years four and five.

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What's interesting to me while looking up and down the list of the sport's best and most proven stallions on both the trotting and pacing sides, is how many have outstanding first years only to be followed by a reduction in the second year and a third year where the numbers practically fall off a cliff. No matter how far you go back in any successful pacing stallion you'll find the downward progression in year three. Those who have substantial first-year prowess will find the numbers rapidly pick up in years four and five while those that don't hit in the first two years lose traction, move to different states or may even return to a racetrack. It's a tough business and the degree of difficulty is mind boggling. For those with breeding farms the number of correct decisions that need to be made over time is numbing, but more important is the level of patience as prosperity can be fleeting.

In looking over the numbers, arguably Somebeachsomewhere stands out as the best stallion of the last 20 years, but even he stumbled in his third year. Career earnings for Somebeachsomewhere's first and second crop are both in excess of $24 million. His third crop earned just $10 million, but to be fair was nearly half the size of his first two. Somebeachsomewhere rebounded nicely in years four and five, once again breeding full books and siring numerous champions.

Captaintreacherous put his sire Somebeachsomewhere on the map as a first-year success story and followed the same game plan as a stallion with superb results from his first two crops, with cumulative earnings of $35 million. Captaintreacherous' third year showed a distinct drop in earnings, with current numbers hovering at $11 million.

On the trotting side is where we found a quite different story and one that suggests there's a good reason why most in the business put Muscle Hill on a pedestal few will reach. Unlike the elite pacing sires, Muscle Hill's third year proved even better than his outstanding first and second crop. That's in large part due to the outstanding year Triple Crown champion Marion Marauder would have, and of note the presence of future stallion Southwind Frank. Stallions Trixton and E L Titan were part of Muscle Hill's solid first crop and world champion Mission Brief came along from the second crop.

Then there is the phenomenon that is Windsongs Legacy, a Triple Crown winner that had a brilliant if short-lived stallion career due to his untimely passing. His numbers were incredibly consistent over his first three years, with a third crop of just 56 registered foals earning more than his second crop. A major reason for that came in the brilliant Chapter Seven who earned $1.9 million during his career. Chapter Seven himself followed the path of his sire with solid results in year's one and two, where Walner and Atlanta showed his star quality on the racetrack in consecutive crops. In year three it was Gimpanzee, the three-time Breeders Crown champion, that would emerge. Chapter Seven's third year was even better than some of the others, specifically because he only had 49 registered foals that year when compared with 81 and 74 in the first two.

This year we're likely to find out whether the third year is a charm as well for Walner, who had a brilliant debut in 2021 and followed it up with a strong second crop that will be sophomores this year.

Given the likely quality drop in mares in year three for any stallion, those who defy the odds are surely destined for greatness.