Harness: Digging into the Breeders Crown takeout reduction at Pocono
The Breeders Crown returns to The Downs at Mohegan Sun Pocono this year, but they come with a twist – an across the board takeout reduction. It is a twist of irony given that Pennsylvania has long been known to have some of the highest takeout rates in the country.
Without question, all parties involved should be commended for this venture. Additionally, all harness bettors who have been proclaiming for years that the bettors are being gouged by exorbitant takeout rates should support what is transpiring at the Breeders Crown. It is in the best interest of everyone that after the Breeders Crown is contested, an analysis of the handle reveals a positive impact from this takeout reduction.
Of course, the elephant in the room has to be addressed. After the Breeders Crown eliminations are contested on October 19 and October 20, racing will return on October 21. That racing program will include Win, Place and Show takeout rates of 19%, 20% for Exactas and Daily Doubles, 25% for Pick 3, Pick 4 and High-5 as well as 30% for Trifectas and Superfectas. There are wagers the following night that will be offered at double the price from the night before. The same scenario will transpire after the Breeders Crown Finals as well.
To put this into context, imagine it’s Memorial Day weekend and you are trying to put together plans with your friends for the weekend. After doing research, you learn that Joe’s Bar is offering $3.00 Beers on Friday and Saturday night, but on Sunday night there are no discounts offered. Beers return to their normal price for the night of $6.00. However, Mike’s Bar is offering $3.00 Beers again on Sunday and Monday night. Everything else offered by the two bars is the exact same experience. Who in their right might would go to Joe’s Bar after Saturday night and pay double for a beer?
The takeout argument is far more complex than the example I listed above. Reduced takeout cannot exist in a vacuum. The impact of reducing takeout on the industry is a long-term process that requires long-term commitment. There are parts of the impact that require time to take hold. If a Trifecta pool of $20,000 on Crown Elimination night has four winning tickets, each ticket will return $4,250 after the 15% takeout. The next night, in that same exact scenario, each ticket would return $3,500. Over time, the additional $750 that each bettor has in their pocket would be put back through the betting windows three times over, on average. Each of those bettors would increase their handle by $2,250 just by reducing the takeout rate. You combine the four bettors together and that makes $9,000 in increased handle. That is from one night, one track, one pool. Imagine the impact it would have across the board on all tracks.
Make no mistake, I applaud everyone connected with the Hambletonian Society, Breeders Crown and The Downs at Mohegan Sun at Pocono for taking the initiative and doing something great for the bettors. My concern is, because these initiatives are occurring over three nights at one racetrack, a post-event analysis will not yield the massive increases that some may be expecting and thus, lowering takeout will be viewed as a failure. As I said earlier, in order for a low-takeout experiment to receive a true and fair test, it has to be given some legs. It has to be given time for bettors to really take hold, get more back in their pockets race card after race card and watch their handle churn at a higher rate.
Personally, I will give this initiative every possible push I can. I will make sure that any horse player I know is aware of this low-takeout initiative. I will promote it through social media repeatedly as we get closer to the event. In my own job, I will take measures to help this initiative succeed. My only hope is that the results are strong enough that it makes racetracks want to try this on a larger and longer scale. For now, I say great job to all involved and I look forward to wagering on harness racing’s year-end championship event!