Harness: Consignors weigh in on 2026 Lexington Selected Sale changes and market factors

From global and economic conditions to the general health of the industry, there are any number of factors that may play into the final results of any yearling sale. The 2026 Lexington Selected Yearling Sale at the Fasig-Tipton Sales Pavilion in Kentucky not only has some outside variables in terms of high gas prices and the war in Iran in the background, but also a number of internal changes that will certainly alter the gross and average totals after the last horse goes through the ring.

The two most relevant influences on the sale are sure to be the number of days and horses. For more than 20 years the Lexington Selected Yearling Sale has been conducted over the course of five days and nights. That won't be the case in 2026 as the sessions will be October 5 and 8 at 7:00 P.M. (EDT) and October 6 and 7 at 11:00 A.M. In addition, only 756 horses (after outs) are scheduled to sell, 134 less than 2025 and 193 less than 2023 when the highest number (949) in the sale's history went through the ring.

"That was by design. We thought that the market has changed and we responded to that," said co-Sales Manager Bruce Binkerhoff on the reduction of the number of horses. "We tried to eliminate [yearlings] we thought were towards the bottom end of the spectrum, and we thought that was what the market was telling us after the last couple years, but especially last year, that there wasn't a market for that type of horse at our venue.

"We're hoping for a good response, and we think it'll be a positive thing. Hopefully the adjustments that we've made will have the intended consequences."

Both average and gross sales for 2025 were down year-over-year, with the former taking a 5.15% hit while the latter fell 7.34%. Both numbers were the lowest since 2021. Logic would state that the gross has to fall and the average will rise this year given the reduction of available yearlings.

"I think the market will be as strong as it has been," said Deo Volente Farms' Mike Gulotta. "The bottom line is that there are fewer horses being offered. So less supply. And even if the demand wanes a bit, the law of supply and demand should operate."

A somewhat subtle change that has the attention of many breeders and consignors is the move of the Kentucky Futurity to the Saturday prior to the sale rather than the Saturday after. While the shift makes complete sense in terms of scheduling with the Breeders Crown eliminations for 3-year-olds on October 17 at Scioto Downs, it has also brought about some concern from breeders.

"I don't know how traffic is going to be because that is a day when there are usually a lot of people here. Sunday is what I'm thinking is going to be a madhouse," said Tim Hayes from Armitage Farm.

"I'm unsure of the schedule change with the Futurity and show day, and there's a lot jammed into a very short period of time now. I think if you blink, you're going to miss it," said Michelle Panebianco from Crawford Farms. "Saturday morning is going to be crazy because I think you're still going to get a lot of people that haven't been able to see your yearlings that are going to try to get day one in at least. And then Sunday is just going to be insane. I think that's going to be a full day of showing horses."

Crawford Farms is selling three fewer horses in 2026 than the previous year due to the decision to reduce the total numbers in the sale, and Panebianco feels that perhaps it is a good thing.

"I think that we were forced to find alternate methods [of selling some yearlings], but shipping a horse for day four or five that's not as strong, is it worth shipping them and having a $25,000 horse? Or do you throw them online and cut bait early? And then you don't have the expense of the fees and the shipping, which it's a lot when you're coming from New York," said Panebianco.

Hunterton Farm is down from 121 yearlings in 2025 to 110 this year. According to co-owner Steve Stewart, it is 100% due to the reduction in horses accepted by the sales company.

"I would think everybody would be down a little bit," said Stewart. "I think they did the right thing. We'll see if they picked out the ones that should not have been in the sale, if you're trying to cut out the bottom, which I'm sure they are."

Stewart added that most of his extra horses went to the annual Standardbred Sale in early November at Harrisburg. If they weren't accepted there, they would likely be placed on an online auction site.

Despite all of the changes, one commonality of breeders and consignors is that they are expecting a strong sale. Certainly that the Ohio Selected Jug Yearling Sale was up 5.4% in average is a powerful indicator. Also at play is the recent announcement of the new $1 million Meadowlands Trot and $500,000 Meadowlands Oaks for 3-year-olds, as well as enhanced purses for other stakes at the Meadowlands.

"We went from potential darkness to light, because I think that if [Meadowlands CEO Jeff Gural] had folded his tent and just waited for a casino and really didn't do anything or whatever, we would've been in trouble, but thank goodness he stepped up," said Stewart.

Panebianco said that the Meadowlands' announcement "couldn't have come at a better time," and she reflected on the Crawford Farms journey from a small-time seller in New York to one of the top consignors at Lexington.

"I just keep thinking about where we started and I laugh. [Heather Reese-Marshall and I] were saying, 'remember when we were high-fiving at Morrisville over like a $9,000 colt selling, and what little we knew about breedings, matings and matching the right stallion with the right mare?' I think we've come a long way," said Panebianco.

It is difficult for any breeder to choose between their babies, but HIP 111 Ubeautiful was the first name that came into Panebianco's head when asked about the Crawford Farms consignment standouts. A Captaintreacherous-sired filly out of two-time Dan Patch Award winner Warrawee Ubeaut, Ubeautiful is a half-sister to recent 1:49 3/5 Kentucky Sire Stakes 2-year-old filly pace winner Seaside Ubeaut.

A nice compact horse that looks put together properly, Panebianco said that "Everybody that's seen her absolutely loves her."

Much later in the sale, Panebianco is hoping that HIP 414 Franklin Blu could be the one that puts Androvette on the map as a broodmare. The colt has a nice bounce to his step in the video and could provide some value being by Tall Dark Stranger.

"I know it's a kiss of death that he's a Tall Dark Stranger colt. However, he's a different level of colt and may be the magic ticket. There's something about him that, I don't know, I love him," said Panebianco.

HIP 581 Sawyer Blu is another who moved nicely in her video and perhaps could be an interesting pick for those looking to take advantage of the big money and short fields in the New York Sire Stakes market. By Crazy Wow, Panebianco said that given what they've bred to him this year, his crops in the next few years will determine his place in the sport as a stallion.

If you are looking for a sleeper, Panebianco is very high on HIP 624 Taconic. The Pennsylvania and Kentucky yearling is the fourth foal from stakes winner Stonebridge Soul, but the first time she has been bred to a horse outside of Tall Dark Stranger. Taconic is by Sweet Lou.

"This is the nicest individual she's had," said Panebianco.

Deo Volente is selling 15 yearlings under the Preferred Equine consignment, and owner Mike Gulotta is excited about the turnout he's had to see them at his New Jersey-based farm.

"I've got some great people coming and looking at our horses. Great, high-priced buyers. And they like a lot of them," said Gulotta.

Topping the list are a pair from the first crop of Confederate. HIP 85 Stonewall Deo is a half-brother to both Dan Patch Award winner Rocknificent ($1.1 million) and Rocket Deo ($856K), and HIP 187 Rebel Deo is a half-brother to millionaire Rodeo Drive Deo. Both foals are Pennsylvania eligible, but Rebel Deo has dual-eligibility in Kentucky.

Another pacer worth a look is HIP 291 Windjammer Deo. Cited as "unbelievably gorgeous" according to Gulotta, the son of Sweet Lou is just the second foal from the mare, who was bred to Tall Dark Stranger in her first mating.

Bloodline aficionados will want to check out HIP 142 Maneater Deo. The first foal from the mare and from the first crop of Cannibal, this filly has New York and Kentucky eligibility.

"She is four by four bred to Delinquent Account and an incredible-looking horse. That's one of my favorite horses," said Gulotta.

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While any consignor is going to put a positive spin on their yearlings, Hunterton's Stewart hardly has to do that with his elite group. Of them is 20 by Walner, who led all stallions in average (with more than one yearling) by almost $20,000 at $131,188 in 2025 at Lexington.

"There's never been a better time to sell a top stallion as Walner," said Stewart, who commented on the fact that this is the second year with 80 by Walner in the sale. "I didn't feel like very many people left Lexington last year saying, 'oh my gosh, there were too many Walners.' I think that everybody wished they had more Walners."

Although opening night is where the sale-toppers typically reside, Stewart said buyers shouldn't sleep on the power in the sale on the second day.

"We have quite a few yearlings in my estimation that are selling on the second day that easily could have been sold on the first day," said Stewart. "I don't have a problem in them selling on the second day just because I know that in the past we've done very well with second-day horses."

Interestingly, the one horse that Stewart was eager to highlight is selling on the fourth night of the sale. HIP 728 Zoetry is a filly by Volstead and the first foal out of $801K winner Walner Payton.

"I don't know who will top the first session, but I'm very confident that I know who will top the last session," said Stewart about Zoetry. "If she's not the highest price on the last day, somebody got a very, very good buy. And the reason why I say that is because she's just a very, very special filly. She's 100% just like Walner Payton."

Cane Run Farm's Elizabeth Caldwell was a bit more cautious in her comments when it came to the topic of Walner. She has two by that top sire, including HIP 328 Ascend from the mare Princessa, who gets a stallion change from Gimpanzee to Walner with her second foal.

"There's so many of [Walners] in the sale. I hope they don't get lost in the shuffle, but she's a nice filly," said Caldwell.

Cane Run has 16 set to sell in Lexington, all trotters. None of them landed on opening night, but that doesn't bother Caldwell in the least.

"Day one is just tough. It's very intense. So, I think a few of them could have maybe been on a different day, but I think they're going to hopefully stand out on the day they're selling," said Caldwell. "I'm looking at my list, and I don't see a horse that I wouldn't want."

A couple that videoed very well are fillies, HIP 566 Without Lou and HIP 636 Tigress Tactics. The former is a first foal from the family of multiple Dan Patch Award winner Peaceful Way while the latter is a product of an interesting stallion change from Father Patrick to Tactical Approach.

"She's a nice filly. She's got a good head on her shoulders; smart filly. Nothing seems to faze her," said Caldwell about Without Lou. "She just goes. She was easy to video and prep.

"She's got speed, she's athletic. Hopefully she fills out some more. She's not a very big horse, but the entire family we've owned all the way back to Bar Slide on the page, none of them are very big," remarked Caldwell about Tigress Tactics. "I've had several people say that she's a really nice-looking filly by [Tactical Approach] and they really like her."

Colts which Caldwell felt that deserved extra attention are HIP 480 Abebe - "He's a very striking horse" - and HIP 162 Jungle Law - "He's very athletic".

One of the farms bringing the smallest numbers to Lexington also has one of the best consignments in terms of bloodlines and conformation. Kountry Lane Standardbreds came to this sale for the first time in 2025 with just seven yearlings and led in average price by over $40,000 at $155,286. They have another magnificent seven in the catalog this year.

"The Lexington crop is really nice, and it was specifically hand-picked for Lexington. My idea is I like to sell first or second night. And if they don't make the first or second night, they're better off in Harrisburg," said Duane Miller from Kountry Lane. "You get batted around pretty good in Lexington. You think you have a pretty nice individual and you get down to Lexington, look around, and guess what? So does everybody else. It's tough. It seems to me like you get overshadowed in Lexington pretty quick because of the depth."

Because Kountry Lane is new to the breeding game, they have the distinct advantage of a young broodmare band. The operation also benefits from their decision to buy accomplished racetrack mares of the highest quality.

"Our broodmare band is so young and so new. Obviously, in the next few years as time goes on we won't have as many young ones," said Miller. "I won't keep a lot of old mares around unless they're great producers or something. Because it seems to me people like the young and the new."

Many of the top stallions are represented in the Kountry Lane consignment, including Walner, Captaintreacherous, Sweet Lou, and newcomer Confederate, among others. While the group includes first foals from Dan Patch winner Lyons Sentinel (HIP 90 Kountry Lynn), $633K winner Captain Cowgirl (HIP 24 Kountry Cassandra) and $567K winner Flawless Country (HIP 230 Kountry Faith), Miller is highest on the half-brother to recent New York Sire Stakes champion Kountry Plunge that sells as HIP 79.

"[Kountry Prince] is pretty correct, but so are all of ours. He's also tall and athletic, he's really athletic. Kountry Plunge, the filly last year, was a lot shorter, a lot of stubbier legs and stuff. This guy is just way more horse. He's the real deal for sure," said Miller about Kountry Prince, who looked in his video like he could carry a cup of coffee on his back and not spill a drop.

It is tricky to determine the ultimate results of any yearling sale and even more difficult to get people in the harness racing industry to agree on much, but there is unanimous consent that the Lexington Selected Sale will produce a positive outcome.

"There are a lot of horses in there that should bring a lot of money, but you just don't know until it happens," said Binkerhoff, who pointed out that all indicators within the industry are strong. "People come to a yearling sale mostly to buy horses to race in stakes races and those purses, in almost every jurisdiction, are very good. So I would think that would bode well for the sale."

Ultimately, the buyers will decide.