Harness: Choice is clear for Horse of the Year
If you are top-ranked or #1 and you keep winning, you should remain #1. Unless of course you are an NCAA Bowl Division football team. The powers that be in college football leapfrogged #1 not once, but twice in a short period. At least in the NCAA, the second-ranked team still has a chance to prove its merit on the field. We don’t do it that way in harness racing.
Every major Horse of the Year contender (save a couple of freshmen who are longshots at best) lost his or her last race this year. This year, it did not all come down to the Breeders Crown. We can’t even Wait and See at the TVG.
I have been quite surprised lately to hear several horses put forth as potential horses of the year. I have read it should be Greenshoe. I have read it should be Bettor’s Wish. I have seen social media posts (and they are always credible) that it should be Manchego. Even Gimpanzee and Forbidden Trade’s names have been tossed around. There is only one plausible answer, though. The 2019 Horse of the Year is Shartin. Now, this would be a more obvious call if not for Caviart Ally, who beat Shartin three times in her last five starts. But it is still an easy call.
So what do we do? We use statistics. Other than her second start of the year -- a 4th place finish where she had the eight-hole at Yonkers and was three-wide most of the mile, Shartin was first or second 18 of 19 starts, with 15 wins. Greenshoe was first or second in all 13 starts (10 wins), but that means he had fewer races than Shartin had wins. Bettor’s Wish was 19 of 19 first or second, with 13 wins. Shartin has the highest win percentage of the group, at just below 79%, slightly better than Greenshoe, who is right around 77%. She made less money than Bettor’s Wish, but earned more of the purse money available to her.
The richest race for Shartin this year was the $402,600 Blue Chip Matchmaker Final, which she won at Yonkers. Greenshoe raced for larger purses four times, winning just once (the Kentucky Futurity) and finishing second in the other three. His second-place Breeders Crown finish was worth over $40,000 more than Shartin’s similar effort. Meanwhile, Bettor’s Wish earned nearly twice as much as Shartin but raced in six events with purses greater than the Matchmaker Final (and one with an equal purse). He won four of the six.
I realize we are talking about 3-year-olds for the most part, as we compare them to what may be the greatest mare ever to race. But the award is Horse of the Year. The campaign of Bettor’s Wish lasted five-and-a-half months. Greenshoe’s a week longer. Shartin had won six races before either sophomore competed for a purse. Compare her to other top older horses? Shartin raced for nine months. McWicked for about seven months. Manchego’s season was six months long and Atlanta competed for a couple weeks longer.
A quick note, much as I joked about Continentalvictory and Moni Maker years ago – that Continentalvictory should be the Sophomore Trotting Colt of the Year and Moni Maker 3-year-old Filly Trotter of the Year, an argument can be made that either Manchego or Atlanta (Manchego got my divisional vote, by the way, by the slimmest of margins) should be Aged Trotting Horse of the Year and the other should be named Aged Trotting Mare.
As I said, the award is for Horse of the Year. Not horse of the month, or horse of the half-year, or Horse of the third Thursday after Labor Day or the first Saturday in August. We can’t give Shartin credit for last year’s remarkable numbers, nor can we penalize her because this year’s numbers are “down” from that record-setting season. Simply put, Shartin was the best horse for the longest period of time this year, just as she was last year, in my opinion (and that is not a knock at McWicked at all).
The USTA’s Ken Weingartner administers the sport’s Top Ten Poll. It runs for 28 weeks. Thirty-five pundits, prognosticators and powers-that-be within the sport vote. Shartin led the poll. Not just in week 28. But in week one. And in every week in between. Atlanta got within five points of her (scoring is done on a 10-9-8 etc. basis) in week seven, which means she not just led the poll, but she dominated it.
Weingartner commented, “I don’t know if this is the first time a horse has led the poll from start to finish. But I cannot recall it ever happening since I’ve been around.”
Neither can I and I have been voting in this poll since the mid-nineties. This is a pretty strong endorsement. If she was the best horse every week of the season, she should be the best horse of the entire year.
The votes are due December 20 and the announcement comes next year. Statistically, Shartin was robbed last year, although McWicked was also clearly deserving. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen again. Now go cash. Maybe find a sports book to cover a wager on Shartin as Horse of the Year. See you next month.