Harness: Case of the missing Pick 4 carryovers

If only tracks could bottle the most powerful tool they have in convincing people to wager on their races. We are of course writing about the carryover.

Add the word “carryover” to any wager and watch as the typical pool triples or quadruples, and in some cases can reach more than 10 times the norm.

In most jurisdictions, a carryover occurs when all players fail to correctly select the winning combination in a race or multiple races. For instance, if there are no tickets with the winners of all legs of the Pick 4, the pool (minus takeout or track rake) is transferred to either the next available Pick 4 wager on the card or to the next racing program. This creates a situation where players have a rare edge since the pool on the next Pick 4 is seeded. Let’s look at a quick example:

A track’s typical Pick 4 pool is $5,000 and they have a 25% takeout. When no players hit the wager $3,750 is carried over to the next Pick 4 where $15,000 in new money is wagered. If there was no carryover, of that $15,000 pool, $11,250 would be distributed to the winning tickets. With the carryover $15,000 is returned to winning handicappers. So if there were 100 winning tickets, every winner would get $150 instead of $112.50 because of the carryover.

The practice of a Pick 4 carryover exists in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Indiana, Florida, Kentucky . . . you get the picture . . . basically everywhere – except New York. The Empire State, with its seven harness tracks, has a policy of paying out to players who correctly selected the most winners, which means 3 out of 4 in almost all cases. Strangely enough, if you play the Pick 5 and there are no winning tickets, the state allows for a carryover. Yeah, it’s a headscratcher.

You can view the official Pick 4 rules from the New York Gaming Commission in section 4122.46, along with all of the rules governing harness racing in the state. The industry standard for wagering rules is the Model Rules of Racing put forth by the Association of Racing Commissioners International. The linked document covers all possibilities for wagers.

Why does it matter whether New York offers Pick 4 carryovers?

Just with a conservative estimate, it is costing New York harness tracks hundreds of thousands of dollars in handle each year. It’s simple math. Every time there is a one-day carryover the pool triples or quadrupoles. So a $5,000 pool could become $15,000 or $20,000. If there is a two-day carryover the resulting pool grows five or six times at a minimum. That $15,000 pool will likely reach $75,000. Instead of two days with $5,000 handle on the Pick 4 each day, now we have the same two days producing $90,000 worth of handle.

For those that prefer facts, Yonkers offered a Pick 5 on Friday February 14 that created a pool of $5,198. There were no winners and $3,899 carried over to the Saturday Pick 5 which had a final pool of $16,326 (new money only), more than triple the Friday total. At Northfield on February 10 the late Pick 4 had a pool of $4,907 which went un-hit and created a $3,163 carryover. The following day that carryover convinced bettors to pour $31,656 into the Pick 4, more than six times the previous card.

Through the first week of March this year, there have been seven Pick 4 pools which went unsolved in New York. It might not seem like a large number, but for most of January Yonkers Raceway was the only track racing. Buffalo started on January 29 and Saratoga didn’t start until February 16. Monticello doesn’t offer a Pick 4. About 10 percent of racing dates so far produced a potential carryover.

If a carryover existed in New York, the seven pools would’ve produced total carryovers of $20,561 for an average of $2,937. Assuming an average pool of $4,000 for each of the tracks (some would be less, some more), it would be reasonable to expect a pool of at least $13,000 with the carryover. That $9,000 increase per pool would result in $63,000 of additional handle for New York harness tracks. Considering only about 10 percent of racing dates have been contested to date in 2020, a rough guesstimate of $630,000 ($63,000 x 10) in lost handle is appropriate. It’s arguably a low estimate since we aren’t considering the possibilities of multiple-day carryovers.

We don’t mean to single out the Pick 4 as tracks in most of the other states also allow for Superfecta carryovers and some even have Pick 3 carryovers.

It’s not like tracks don’t want the ability to offer a Pick 4 carryover. We’ve heard from multiple track officials hoping to one day see the New York Racing Commission consider and approve the rule. Alex Dadoyan, Director of Racing at Yonkers, went on the record in January about his desire to see the changes.

“There were some immediate changes I wanted to make, like allowing for carryovers in the pick 4s and superfectas and lowering the takeout on several wagers since that’s something Yonkers had never done,” said Dadoyan. “However, I hadn’t fully appreciated the regulations in New York that sort of limit the flexibility in these areas, so these will take some time.”

We often hear about the sport becoming self-sufficient and being able to stand on its own two feet. How is that supposed to happen when the state handcuffs tracks with archaic rules and when they do agree to change it gets delayed for months?

Back in September the Gaming Commission in New York approved language that would allow for Jackpot Hi-5 and Jackpot Pick 6 wagers. After a 60-day public comment period, the new rules were expected to be implemented by the start of the New Year. Some six months later, we are still waiting for action.

Will the Jackpot wagers ever appear on a track’s wagering menu in New York?

Will the Gaming Commission ever take action on the Pick 4?

In this age where information is at our fingerprints and meetings take place with participants that are miles apart, you would think the processes above would be so much easier to implement. At least they gave initial approval to the Jackpot bets – baby steps!