Harness: Blame the public, not the horse

Past performances are printed in black and white. Make no mistake, when it comes to analyzing the backgrounds of harness horses nothing is as easy as black and white. There is a ton of gray between these lines and quite often time and age change the actual meaning of a horse's perceived ability and actual ability.

It was fascinating to listen to post-race analysis following 2021 Horse of the Year Test Of Faith's first go-round on Saturday night (May 7) at The Meadowlands. Far from the high crimes and misdemeanor category some had suggested, Test Of Faith to my eyes and mind raced pretty much as expected while up against older rivals for the first time in her career.

If you were among those who backed Test Of Faith at 6-5 and expected the defending Horse of the Year to come back a winner despite starting from an outside post in her first pari-mutuel race after only one (hard to count the Harrah's Philadelphia mile) decent qualifying mile, you might see it otherwise.

From my perspective bettors go with what they see on paper and quite often they accept morning lines or race-time odds as something they clearly are not. The odds board, whether advanced by a single individual (oddsmaker) or the sum of all wagers (final odds) should not sway a person from a deep look at actual past performances. I often believe players are swayed by public opinion with an emphasis put on the favorite.

What made Test Of Faith the 6-5 favorite was her historic past performances and not her current form. This is something that requires a deeper look into an individual horse-type as opposed to simply a horse that dominated her class as a 2 and 3-year-old. To anyone that wished to look back on Test Of Faith's past performances that made her last year's champion, there were enough hints that landing post nine in the field of 10 for her 2022 debut, there were no guarantees she would leave the gate. Some have argued that the new "no tuck" rules that have been implemented at The Meadowlands this year was a major deterrent to driver David Miller, who perhaps only took back because there wouldn't likely be a place for him to tuck without being forced to drive up for the lead. For argument's sake, the implication that Test Of Faith should have been more forwardly placed is in my mind the fixation that as the public choice the horse belongs on the front end. While some horses may do their best racing on the front, Test Of Faith seems to relish passing horses in the stretch with an explosive burst few horses can match. Miller's understanding of the horse he was steering last Saturday is precisely why he drove her from off the pace to the chagrin of chalk players.

Ironically when a favorite loses in its first start of the season there will always be finger pointing and some have suggested bigger paydays down the road as the cause of Test Of Faith's fourth-place finish in her season's debut. What this analysis suggests is that it's a given that Test Of Faith will prove to be the best in a division of horses that she hasn't had to race against in previous years. While this week's first round of the Graduate will pit her against fellow 4-year-olds, last week's Open Mares event had her matched against some proven horses from North America and Down Under.

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In last week's field was Blue Chip Matchmaker final runner-up Racine Bell, a horse that was among the leaders in the Open Pacing Mare division last year and was expected to dominate when she returned to racing this season as a 5-year-old. Concerned about how good she would return, Jason Bartlett raced her from behind in her season's debut on February 12 at The Meadowlands and the So Surreal-sired mare was a strong winner in 1:50 3/5 as a 4-1 offering. The price was likely the result of a qualifier raced at Saratoga that was nearly seven seconds slower than her pari-mutuel victory.

Two races later for Racine Bell found Bartlett putting her on the front end at Yonkers as the 1-5 favorite with the results a disappointing second-place finish.

Two weeks later Bartlett would guide Racine Bell in the first leg of the Blue Chip Matchmaker and despite going off as the favorite he elected to sit in from third and wait for an opportunity to arrive in the stretch. Fortunately, without a passing lane, room still developed on the inside but only enough for her to finish second, a nose behind the winner Dragon Roll.

To me the decision Bartlett made that night and likely the one Dave Miller made with Test Of Faith were similar. Bartlett had admitted to me that he wasn't sure how Racine Bell would react if he sent her to the front a second straight time after a first defeat. In Miller's case you have a horse coming off two qualifiers that were good efforts but hardly up to the racing speed she would need to go. While a 26 second final quarter is something Test Of Faith is familiar with, having to pass all nine horses in the process was too tall an order, even for her.

There are likely to be many who follow up on Test of Faith this Saturday at The Meadowlands where she starts from post two and faces just 4-year-old rivals. Win or lose it is not likely to reveal that much about how Test of Faith will handle older foes the entire year. As many horsemen have suggested, it's a major transition for both pacers and trotters when put up against older foes for the first time.

Perhaps more important to those looking to bet on or against Test of Faith in the weeks and months to come is the question of whether she's going to need to rely on a "trip" to win each week or whether she can go to the front and consistently cut out a mile against this group of horses. This is an analysis that will require watching the mare closely and observing how she reacts when put to the test.

We all wish it was as easy as black and white, but when it comes to a formal review of a champion's ability often it's more important to look for the weaknesses and find situations to bet against them, as opposed to assuming that just because they were the best at 2 and 3 that they will naturally be the best against older foes. Either way, those looking to point fingers at Test Of Faith's first race of the year need look no further than the odds board as the culprit and not the horse.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Sent off as the 3-5 choice on May 14, Test Of Faith made an early brush to the front after getting away fourth from an inside post and bravely held off Oakwoodanabella Ir by a neck in 1:49 4/5 over a sloppy Meadowlands surface.]