Harness: Avoiding the fear factor of losing to the favorite

The sport of horse racing is one that is quite challenging for gamblers. It requires advanced analytical thinking and some understanding of mathematics. From a mathematical standpoint, being able to decipher true value through mathematical probability is an advantageous quality of any horse player.

Like other gambling options, many of the customers that are partaking in wagering on horse racing don’t even realize the mathematics they are using every time they open a program. Much like a basic craps player doesn’t really understand the advantages and disadvantages of certain bets on the table, or a basic blackjack player may not employ the correct strategy when dealt a nine against a face-up four.

The horseplayer however seems to have a characteristic that I am not certain is as evident in other gamblers . . . fear. Not many blackjack players stay on 15 against a King because they are afraid of busting. Not many crap players wager on the “don’t pass” line out of fear of the roller throwing craps. But the horseplayer, for some reason, lets fear creep into their logic when formulating tickets. The worst part about that fear is it has little to do with their opinion and much more to do with the opinion of everyone else.

The fear I am speaking about is a player being afraid that a favorite will beat him/her, even if that favorite is a horse that the player doesn’t necessarily like. The player is literally putting the opinion of the general public above their own, often at the expense of their own expected value.

This fear is most prevalent in multi-race exotic wagers. Players just can’t stomach the idea of being right in one or two races with horses that pay a decent amount to win, but then get knocked out by the favorite. How often I hear someone say, “I had the $46 horse in the pick four, but didn’t have a penny on him to win.” That’s insane. You shouldn’t have to be right four times to collect on one great opinion. Often, a player expands their ticket when they come up with a big-price horse in one of the legs, because they are afraid to have a big winner in a sequence and get knocked out by a favorite. Often, the resulting ticket, while including that big-priced horse, also includes combinations that would result in breaking even, or even losing money on that ticket.

An example of this incorrect strategy:

The player likes the #1 horse that is 15-1 on the morning line in race 10 at The Meadowlands. But when the player puts in his ticket for the bet which starts in race 8, it looks like this:

2,3,4 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,6,7 / 4,5,8 – a cost of $54 for a $.50 cent wager.

In all four races, including the race with the 15-1 shot, he has the first and second choice favorites. The player has 16 combinations of the first or second choice winning all four races. That is $8 the player wasted. Those combinations and several others should be removed from the ticket and the money saved by removing those combinations should be placed on the 15-1 shot to win.

There was a time when I was guilty of this as well. Thankfully, I learned from past mistakes and you will never see me play a ticket that includes chalks in all legs. If I believe a sequence has the potential to be that chalky, I simply won’t play it.

Here is the really odd part. Often enough the biggest offenders are those who make their tickets public and those that are being paid to do so. I spent hundreds of nights on television and I would feel embarrassed if I promoted my $48 pick-four ticket that paid $53. I’ll be the first to say that on-air talent are often restricted by certain guidelines. Nobody gets that more than me. But I honestly feel that a person should not publicly promote a ticket that they are not betting themselves. I also feel that public handicappers are doing bettors a disservice by simply saying, “here is my pick four ticket,” and it’s one 3x2x4x4 ticket.

I can’t speak for other public handicappers, but that is not how I play multi-race exotic tickets. I always have multiple tickets, where I repeat certain combinations that reflect my best opinion and remove combinations that drag down my expected value. The worst example of this is when a public handicapper presents a ticket where one leg not only includes the favorite, but five, six or seven other horses as well. Simply put, if you think a race is that competitive, the favorite should not be on your ticket. Spreading that deep in a race and having the favorite win is one of the most deflating feelings a bettor can experience.

Just this weekend, a prominent person in the racing industry gave out a pick-five ticket on a radio station. The sequence included a horse that would be less than even-money. The handicapper said, “you either single this horse, or spread deep, because it’s hard to pinpoint any one horse that can beat him.” He proceeded to not only spread, but he spread while including that short-priced favorite. He even said, “if the favorite wins, it’s going to be really bad for me, because spreading here has me so thin in other spots.” This left me shaking my head. Naturally, the favorite won and the handicapper was not able to connect on the ticket, because he was so thin elsewhere.

It would be really helpful if a public handicapper, especially one with a television audience, explained the concept of removing the chalky combinations, showing where that saved money should be invested and then show the resulting tickets with the chalky combinations removed. Handicapping is not just about being right, it’s about being smart. Handicappers, especially those that have a major platform to share their tickets, should understand that just because a ticket wins, doesn’t mean it was a good ticket. If the public handicappers don’t understand this point and give into the fear of not being able to say “my ticket won,” how can we expect the everyday players to not make that same mistake?