Harness: Anxiously awaiting a 2024 pacing showdown

Back in 2020 the promise of a major confrontation in the 3-year-old male pacing ranks was dashed early in the year when Papi Rob Hanover's racing career came to an end. The year would finish out as expected, as his rival Tall Dark Stranger dominated the rest of the sophomore class on his way to year-end honors.

In 2019 Papi Rob Hanover and Tall Dark Stranger met four times, all at Woodbine Mohawk Park, and the results were mixed, to say the least. In the rich Metro Pace, Tall Dark Stranger captured both elimination and final races with Papi Rob Hanover close behind in second.

At season's end the pair renewed their rivalry in the Breeders Crown where Papi Rob Hanover got the better of Tall Dark Stranger in both the elimination and finals of the event. The victory in the Crown final would be short-lived as a minor contact issue between the sulkies of Papi Rob Hanover and Tall Dark Stranger in the stretch would be deemed sufficient evidence to disqualify Papi Rob Hanover and give Tall Dark Stranger the title.

As 3-year-olds the pair met just twice, both at the Meadowlands, where Tall Dark Stranger won on each occasion, with the Meadowlands Pace final proving an epic struggle. The pair matched strides and Tall Dark Stranger came back on towards the wire in a 1:47 2/5 mile. Perhaps lost in history-telling, if not for the benefit of the USTA's vast past performance charts, was the fact that Tall Dark Stranger drew post three in his elimination and five in the final while Papi Rob Hanover was saddled with post 10 in the same elimination race and post nine in the lucrative final.

Papi Rob Hanover did do something special in his abbreviated sophomore campaign when he went to The Meadows for the Adios trials a week after the Meadowlands Pace. With his only good post draw of the year, driver David Miller took no chances racing from behind and instead sent Papi Rob on a mission down the road, shattering the track mark with a 1:47 1/5 world record performance. That would be the final race of Papi Rob Hanover's racing career but enough to send the son of Somebeachsomewhere to Hanover Shoe Farms for the beginning of a new occupation as a stallion.

Tall Dark Stranger completed his two-year racing career with incredible numbers, winning 19 of his 22 starts and finishing second on two occasions. The Nancy Takter-trained son of Bettor's Delight continuously fought back when tested in the homestretch and earned the "heart of a champion" title with performance after performance.

Tall Dark Stranger also earned a spot at Hanover Shoe Farms as a stallion, and like his adversary on the track, bred a full book of mares during his first season at stud in 2021.

The battle between these two generational stars left many in the sport, including this scribe, wondering what the final totals would have been had the two been given more chances to go eye-to-eye following the 2020 Meadowlands Pace.

As unfulfilled as their racing wars would prove to be, the battle lines will once again be drawn for Tall Dark Stranger and Papi Rob Hanover in 2023 as the pair have an ample supply of well-bred colts and fillies from their first crops, many that will show up in the fall in major yearling auctions. Some, of course, may not as those who bred to these standouts in 2021 may wish to retain the offspring for 2-year-old stakes events in 2024.

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What's interesting about this battle is that it comes with very few past performances to work on. Racing careers and pedigrees don't always align to produce the same outcome. While Tall Dark Stranger indeed was the winner on the racetrack, it's hard to say if that will make the difference in the breeding shed. What the two offer is a stark difference when analyzing pedigree. Tall Dark Stranger is a son of the legendary stallion Bettor's Delight. As such, one might think he's got an excellent chance for success. Yet thus far in Bettors Delight's career, he has not sired a stallion that resembles him in any capacity. Papi Rob Hanover is a son of Somebeachsomewhere, a great racehorse, perhaps better sire, and most definitely sire of sires. Captaintreacherous, Somebeachsomewhere's early racing sensation, has followed in his father's footsteps. Yet it's horses like So Surreal, Downbytheseaside, Huntsville and Stay Hungry that have solidified Somebeachsomewhere's claim to being a stallion maker. Now, Papi Rob Hanover appears destined to be the next in the powerful line.

Like every breeding equation, one would be wise not to forget that broodmares play a role that's at least 50 percent of the equation, if not higher. That said, it's perhaps where Tall Dark Stranger may indeed have an incalculable edge over his contemporary. Of the 99 registered foals from Tall Dark Stranger's first crop, 45 are offspring of mares sired by either Somebeachsomewhere or his son Captaintreacherous.

Given his higher profile on the racetrack and his accessibility to cross with some impressive mares, Tall Dark Stranger's first crop appears to have a better chance of success, at least on paper and some 18 months before their first races. The first crop includes the first foal (a filly) from one of the greatest pacing fillies of the last decade in Party Girl Hill. The yearling has an interesting racing background in that her dam and sire captured separate Tattersalls Stakes divisions at The Red Mile in October of 2020 in the exact same clocking of 1:47 2/5.

Tall Dark Stranger has a colt from the phenomenal broodmare Great Memories. Though her 13th foal, Great Memories has connected with all kinds of sires through her career, notably in recent times with world champion Warrawee Ubeaut and the top invitational performer Warrawee Vital. That duo was sired by Sweet Lou and Captaintreacherous, respectively. The mare was bred to Cam Fella-line stallions early in her career and produced the extremely fast and talented Warrawee Needy from her third foal. Tall Dark Stranger brings the Cam Fella line back some 13 years later.

From 95 registered foals Papi Rob Hanover will have his chances as well, with one filly popping out immediately on the paper. The dam is Road Bet, and she has already connected with the Somebeachsomewhere line with her first foal, the world champion Cattlewash. Her third and fourth foals were no slouches as well, with the fillies Niki Hill, a standout in 2021, and Earthwindfire, a Grand Circuit winner as a 2-year-old in 2022.

On the colt side, perhaps the young Papi Rob Hanover can give a boost to a veteran mare named Shot Togo Bluechip. The dam has already produced millionaires Heston Blue Chip and Sunshine Blue Chip from her first two foals. Now with her 13th foal named Screenshot, she's bred to a Somebeachsomewhere-line stallion for just the third time. The first cross produced the late-developing 1:47 4/5 performer Carbine, who rose through the classes as a 4-year-old in 2022.

Over the last few years, the focus during many of the yearling sales has been keen among first-year trotting stallions. It appears just judging from the offspring from Tall Dark Stranger and Papi Rob Hanover that pacers will rule this fall. While buyers will be competing, the prospect of their sons and daughters racing in 2024 is something we can hardly wait to occur.