Harness: Anticipating the rematch between Highland Kismet and Karl

Much of the harness racing talk over the winter centered on how the 2024 Hambletonian match-up between Karl and T C I would work out. The thought, and rightfully so, was that last year's two outstanding male trotters would renew their rivalry on the sport's biggest stage. Though the $1 million Hambletonian on August 3 did have those two in the lineup, it is clear as September approaches that the next big race for sophomore trotters will have a different heavyweight vying for Karl's potential crown.

For over seven-eighths of a mile in the Hambletonian, Highland Kismet appeared to have the race won. That Karl inevitably rallied past him in the late stretch, or for that matter that third-place finisher Amazing Catch almost did as well, leads me to believe that perhaps the final 100 yards of the Hambo was more about Highland Kismet coming to a crawl near the wire as opposed to horses making a furious rally. The 28 4/5 final quarter, that likely had a much slower second eighth, is the giveaway.

Karl and Yannick Gingras got the job done. There's no question that he is the Hambletonian champion. What is at question is whether future battles with Highland Kismet and he will end the same way or not.

Trainer Mark Etsell rode the roller coaster of emotion on Hambletonian Day and some four weeks later appears to be more excited than ever about his sophomore colt, who returns to action for Saturday's Simcoe at Woodbine Mohawk Park.

"There was a moment there where I thought we were going to win the Hambletonian," said Etsell. "Then he didn't."

Etsell's colt was making just his ninth career start, having not raced at age 2, and perhaps the inexperience could have played a role in the Hambletonian outcome.

"He'd been out in front before," said Etsell, "But that was against non-winners horses and even if he slowed down, they weren't going to catch him."

Etsell was torn between whether Highland Kismet was just acting like a green horse that thought he had done enough to put away the leaders and was coasting the rest of the way, or that the son of Father Patrick was understandably tired having done most of the heavy lifting through the tenacious first seven-eighths of a mile.

"He went a big trip just going first-over and putting away a very good horse in T C I," said Etsell. "For a moment it looked like Karl was struggling to stay with him."

Etsell knows that Karl is a great horse but he's starting to get the idea that he too may have a champion in his stable and is more than looking forward to the second half of the season. While Karl is now camped out in Kentucky, enjoying the benefits of his eligibility and dominating at The Red Mile, Highland Kismet will embark on a pair of major stakes races in the next few weeks in Ontario before what could be consecutive weeks of action versus Karl in Kentucky.

"I didn't make him eligible to the Beal," said Etsell of the gap in Highland Kismet's schedule. "The way that race is split up by earnings it didn't make much sense nominating him. Instead, we gave him a few weeks off and he looked sharp qualifying the other day."

The 1:53 victory on August 23 at Woodbine Mohawk showed a new side of the gelding as it was the first time he raced without trotting hopples.

"I had trained him a mile in 1:53 with a back-half in 55 without hopples, so I wasn't surprised," said Etsell of the transformation.

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Hopples were a bit of a safety net for Etsell with Highland Kismet. Early in the year he didn't want the horse to make a mistake as he'd been prone to as a younger horse. Hopples became a problem when Highland Kismet showed up for the Dancer at the Meadowlands in July.

"We had them too tight in the Dancer and he just never got in gear," said Etsell.

The hopples were extended for the Hambletonian eliminations, but McClure took a very conservative approach to reach the final.

"I told Bob before the race to be careful and just get him into the final," Etsell remarked. "You only get one chance at this, and though I knew winning would give him a guaranteed post, I was more concerned with qualifying."

Highland Kismet was lucky enough to draw post three for the final.

Looking forward, Highland Kismet has been on the sidelines while Karl has already raced and won twice since the Hambletonian. Highland Kismet is scheduled to race Saturday (August 31). He drew post three in the C$164,000 Simcoe (race six). Two weeks from then (September 14) eliminations are scheduled for the Canadian Trotting Classic, a race that Karl is ineligible to.

If all works as expected, Highland Kismet's first opportunity to race against Karl will come in the Bluegrass at The Red Mile on September 29, a week before the Kentucky Futurity. It is Etsell's plan to race both weeks in Kentucky, with the October 6 Kentucky Futurity, the final leg of the Triple Crown, on his radar.

There are many big races still to be contested across the entire Standardbred spectrum, but for me the inevitable rematch between Karl and Highland Kismet is the one I'd pay money to see. When they crossed paths the first two times at the Meadowlands, Karl came out on top. In the first meeting it was hardly an even matchup as Karl dominated and Highland Kismet raced from off-the-pace. The Hambo final proved to be a much more entertaining spectacle as Highland Kismet and McClure were the aggressors in a major way. Not only did McClure get Highland Kismet out faster than the rail-spotted Karl in a brisk opening quarter, but he was out taking air well before the half and made a prolonged bid to the lead with the favorite Karl not tightly on his back from the three-quarters to seven-eighths pole. Of course, the race was also contested during a driving rainstorm and perhaps it impacted one more than the other.

Etsell's enthusiasm aside, Highland Kismet's talent was defined in the Hambletonian, not by a victory, but by the outstanding effort he put in while being used at max speed for most of the mile. It's that experience that he did not get coming out of his first eight encounters. It's that experience that will benefit both horse and driver going forward since Highland Kismet was battle tested against the best and proved himself worthy to challenge for divisional honors.

Clearly the connections of Highland Kismet now have complete confidence that the horse can get the job done the natural way without hopples. If that change shaves a fifth or two off his potential top speed, he will arrive in Kentucky this fall as a horse to be reckoned with.