Harness: 2023 handle is moving on up

In harness racing we often hear a cry of "The sky is falling" when it relates to handle. In 2022 it seemed like article after article kept pointing out that United States wagering on races had declined as I poked holes in the theory with alternate facts. Thankfully my services aren't needed this year, at least not yet.

In what has to boggle the mind a bit, total Standardbred wagering is up in the U.S. by $19 million as of March 1 (stats courtesy USTA). The strange part about the increase is the 12.69% decline in racing dates due to the closure of Pompano Park. So, for some reason, average handle per race is up 12.74%, and yes, this is amidst the continuing growth in sports wagering in New York, as well as the January 1 introduction into the Ohio market.

Harness racing isn't just "hot" on the south side of North America this winter. Wagering in Canada is up 9.24% (just over $8 million CAD) in 2023 according to Standardbred Canada, which is quite an accomplishment when you consider the number of dates that have been canceled north of the border due to weather issues, warm and cold.

In fairness, technically handle in the U.S. on harness racing was down 8.44% in 2022. Much of this was offset by a 39% increase in Canadian handle. The upward and downward movement was a direct result of greatly reduced racing in Canada during the early part of 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While it is impossible to predict the future, and we can only wonder whether the early indicators will become a trend that lasts throughout 2023, it is uplifting to the industry to see such strong gains across multiple outlets. The Meadowlands is leading the way while riding a 15-race streak of $3 million-plus handle cards (Fridays and Saturdays only) and posting an average per card of just over $3.1 million. Year-over-year wagering on the track is up 17% each live racing night.

For Meadowlands COO/General Manager Jason Settlemoir, the increase boils down to the product and ability to offer full competitive fields, something which has continued despite regional competitors Pocono Downs at Mohegan Pennsylvania and Saratoga Raceway and Casino opening in February.

"The race office has done an excellent job in putting together full, competitive fields for our customers to wager on. The number of entries is up year over year. As we have always spoke about, average field size means quite a bit, especially when you're the Meadowlands," said Settlemoir, who added that they were very thankful to the horsemen/women and the betting public for their continued support. "Our wagering format is part of the success story, too, along with our low takeout rates. Our customers love the carryovers and low takeout rates. We're on a roll right now and hopefully it will continue for the rest of 2023."

While they may be driving the car, the Meadowlands is far from the only track reaching new heights.

According to an article on ustrotting.com, The Meadows has seen a 70% handle bump YOY (35% per race) and Pocono reported a modest 15% gain through four cards contested in February. Dover Downs is tracking up just under 20%, Woodbine Mohawk Park is showing a per-race gain of 15% and Northfield has seen a 16.8% uptick in total handle.

Over three cards from February 25 to 28, Northfield averaged $1.53 million in handle per program, over $102,000 per race. Clearly Northfield is firmly entrenched as third in the North American Standardbred handle hierarchy behind just the Meadowlands and Woodbine Mohawk Park.

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Obviously some of the Northfield bump - as well as other tracks - has been residue of the closure of Pompano Park, which raced multiple nights per week from November through April. But Pompano, in theory, would have no effect on a track like Monticello, which races during the daytime hours. There have been many races in 2023 where Monticello, despite carding fields of no more than eight horses, has eclipsed $100,000 in handle, and even a few occasions where wagering topped $125,000!

Looking closer at the upstate New York oval, average daily handle is up 47% YOY and inching towards $700,000 per day. Per-race average handle checks in at just under 20%, lower because Monticello is averaging close to 10 races per day versus just eight in 2022.

Since Pompano and Monticello never occupied the same timeframe for live racing, clearly its closure had no impact, right? So, where is the money coming from? With temperatures being abnormally mild, especially on the East Coast, some executives tossed around the idea of weather being a factor. While perhaps people prefer to wager when track conditions are fast, there have been a number of cards this year contested over less than ideal situations which produced strong handle totals. Certainly more people will show up at the track when weather is warmer, but with maybe 5% of handle coming from live attendance, it is hard to attribute a 12.74% increase in nationwide handle to climate.

Going back to Jason Settlemoir, he may be on to something in terms of field size. During January and February, Pompano Park would host 350 to 400 horses a week. Now those horses are spread throughout the country. With only about 12 tracks currently in action, that's an extra 25-30 horses available per track, assuming they were equally dispersed, which they likely weren't.

The additional horses have a dual effect on the tracks currently racing. First, they lead to larger field size, which means more betting options in each race. So a $1 Trifecta ticket of 5 with 1/3 with ALL could go from a cost of $8 with a six-horse field to $12 with eight horses in the race. All of those $4 bumps in price add up!

A larger horse population also means more races. We already mentioned that Monticello is carding an average of two additional races a day. The Meadowlands averaged an extra race (14 vs. 13) for every 2023 card in February with the exception of one. The Meadows was able to go with 13 races per day in 2023 versus 11 in 2022. While a more modest increase, Dover Downs has also seen a handful of additional races contested in February.

The possibility also exists that more people are wagering this year, and that theory will certainly be tested as 2023 plays out. If U.S. handle is still up over 10% come September, that seems like a clear signal that there is some fresh money being sent in that wasn't being invested a year ago. Let's hope that is the case, because while less may be more in some realities, more is more when it comes to handle.