Hard to look beyond Tepin in Jenny Wiley

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Tepin will be heavily favored when going for a fifth straight victory in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes, one of four straight stakes on an 11-race Saturday card at Keeneland.

Trainer Mark Casse said this week he “could not be happier” with how Tepin is coming into the $350,000 Jenny Wiley, a 1 1/16-mile turf race in which eight other fillies and mares are expected to start.

Casse initially contemplated running Tepin against males in the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile on Friday but said “there really wasn’t a whole lot of upside to it” when opting for the Jenny Wiley.

Not only has Tepin won her last four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile against boys here last fall and a pair of turf stakes at Tampa Bay Downs over the winter, but if not for a pair of very narrow defeats last summer at Saratoga, she would be undefeated in her last nine starts.

“The good thing is she’s training like she has no intention of letting up,” said Casse.

Tepin will have Julien Leparoux aboard again when breaking from post 7 and carrying saddle cloth No. 8. In all, 10 are entered, but Miss Temple City is expected to scratch in favor of the Maker’s 46.

Tepin will be the fourth winner of a 2015 Breeders’ Cup race to start at this meet, following Stopchargingmaria, Wavell Avenue, and Catch a Glimpse.

The Jenny Wiley, carded as the 10th race, is the last leg in an all-stakes pick four that also includes the Ben Ali (race 7), the Giant’s Causeway (race 8), and the Lexington (race 9).

Swipe, the runner-up to Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist in the BC Juvenile here last fall, will make a belated 2016 debut among 10 3-year-olds in the Grade 3, $150,000 Lexington, a 1 1/16-mile race that offers 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner.

Swipe underwent minor ankle surgery following the Breeders’ Cup, explaining his delay. He currently has 12 Derby points and might well need to win Saturday to make the 20-horse cutoff.

Keith Desormeaux, the trainer of Swipe, named Flavien Prat to ride the late-running colt after teaming with his brother, jockey Kent Desormeaux, to win the Santa Anita Derby last weekend with Exaggerator. If Exaggerator had run poorly, the Desormeaux brothers could have been expected to reunite in this race, but that’s moot with Kent now having his Derby mount.

The other Lexington starters who have earned Derby points are Collected (11), Riker (10), and Synchrony (2). Collected, with Javier Castellano to ride for trainer Bob Baffert, won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 9 at Santa Anita and probably will challenge Swipe for favoritism in the Lexington.

Casse has all but ruled out Riker for the Derby, even in the case of a Lexington upset, saying the Pat Day Mile on the May 7 Derby undercard is his likely next start.

First post Saturday is 12:35 p.m. Eastern, or 30 minutes earlier than usual. The Lexington goes at 4:59 and the Jenny Wiley at 5:32.

The pick six runs from races 6-11, the pick five from races 7-11, and back-to-back pick fours run from races 7-10 and 8-11.