Happy Valley selections and analysis for Wednesday, March 6, 2019

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS
(Wednesday, March 06, 2019)

by Declan Schuster

RACE 1: #3 Amazing Gold, #2 Enjoyable Success, #1 Money Winner, #5 Sweet Bean
RACE 2: #9 Dollar Reward, #4 Very Rich Man, #10 Lunar Zephyr, #11 Super Euro Star
RACE 3: #6 Shinealot, #12 Very Sweet Orange, #1 Jolly Bountiful, #9 Gift Of Lifeline
RACE 4: #4 Naboo Star, #5 Happy Warrior, #3 Fortunate Runner, #1 Charity Wings
RACE 5: #3 Har Har Heart, #5 Racing Luck, #9 Flying Quest, #4 Top Laurels
RACE 6: #12 You Have My Word, #4 Helene Charisma, #6 Famous Warrior, #2 Namjong Plus
RACE 7: #4 Special Stars, #10 Coby Oppa, #3 Dream Come True, #9 Gallant Return
RACE 8: #1 Country Star, #4 Music Addition, #7 Storm Signal, #6 Hinchinlove

RACE 1: LOCKART HANDICAP

#3 Amazing Gold got off the mark four starts ago and although he has only won once from 26, he should get the run of the race as he aims to double his win tally. Matthew Poon takes 3lb off his back and from the inside draw (4) he is shaping up to be the likely leader of the race. #2 Enjoyable Success has never shown any urgency out of the gates, but he does manage to close off his races in a very strong manner and last start was no exception, as he flashed home for third behind Gentry. He'll be finishing fast under Zac Purton. #1 Money Winner won well three starts back at Sha Tin over 1600m. He’s shown that he is ready to step up to 1800m and with Dylan Mo’s claim (-5lb) he gets in very well at the weights. #5 Sweet Bean commands respect off the back of his 1800m win on the dirt at Sha Tin just two starts ago. He’ll be thereabouts for trainer Caspar Fownes.

RACE 2: JOHNSTON HANDICAP

#9 Dollar Reward has placed in eight races from 25 without recording a win, but he appears to have found a suitable race to finally breakthrough in. Trained by Danny Shum, he’s placed in three of his last four starts, and he missed narrowly two starts ago by a nose. He’s drawn to get the run of the race, in what isn’t an overly strong Class 4 affair. #4 Very Rich Man is a winner of two from 24 starts. He’ll make his own luck in the lead under Dylan Mo. #10 Lunar Zephyr needs a lot to go his way for him to be winning, but he did return a narrow second at Sha Tin last start which reads well for this. #11 Super Euro Star is the other likely speed runner in the race. He was poor last start, but his best form is much better than that and he deserves forgiveness, especially under the hands of Derek Leung.

RACE 3: JOHNSTON HANDICAP

#6 Shinealot put in two strong performances before fading to finish last in The Griffin Trophy at Sha Tin behind Perfect Match. He’ll relish the drop back in distance to 1200m and he could be the value runner of the race, especially from the inside draw (4). #12 Very Sweet Orange will make his own luck from the inside draw (1) and with Victor Wong’s claim (-7lb) he gets an excellent chance to dictate the race to suit himself. He’ll be in the right spot on the rail and if he set a slow enough tempo to suit himself, he could prove tough to catch. #1 Jolly Bountiful is yet to run a poor race this season and he gets an excellent chance to score a well-deserved win. #9 Gift Of Lifeline turned his form around last start to finish third at Happy Valley (1000m). He’ll improve if he can handle the step up to 1200m, especially with Silvestre de Sousa on his back.

RACE 4: JAFFE HANDICAP

#4 Naboo Star was stepped up to 1650m from 1200m last start and he clearly relished it as he went on to miss by only half a length. He’s drawn to get the run of the race from barrier 4 and in his second at attempt at 1650m, he should be able to get off the mark in Hong Kong. #5 Happy Warrior led and won well last start over this course and distance. He’ll have to overcome the wide barrier (9), but his new front-running style of racing could prove fruitful once again. #3 Fortunate Runner hasn’t been far away in each of his starts and he’s one who should benefit from the step up in distance to 1650m from 1400m. #1 Charity Wings is a three-time winner from 22 starts in Hong Kong. He commands respect off the back of his win two starts ago.

RACE 5: GLOUCESTER HANDICAP

#3 Har Har Heart has finished runner-up in his last three starts. He’s a winner of four races from 23 starts and all his wins have come at Happy Valley over 1650m. He’ll be finishing fast under Zac Purton. #5 Racing Luck got off the mark two starts ago over this course and distance. He settled at the rear of the field last start, where he left himself with far too much work to do. He should push forward to settle midfield. #9 Flying Quest is a two-time winner already this season and although he’s mixed his form across his 24-start career, his best is up to this and he’s drawn (3) to get a very good run. #4 Top Laurels was far from disgraced on the dirt in his last two starts and he’s one who will improve with a return to racing on the turf, as the only win of his career came on the grass at Happy Valley (1650m).

RACE 6: THE POLICE CUP (HANDICAP)

#12 You Have My Word comes out of a very strong form race behind Happy Dragon, which has since seen both place getters in Brave Legend and Harmony Hero run the quinella at Happy Valley. You Have My Word should sit closer to the speed in this and get his chance. #4 Helene Charisma was blocked for a run at crucial stages last start, but when he got out he managed to flash home for a narrow third. He’ll get his chance to atone for that performance with a clean run. #6 Famous Warrior has placed in seven from 13 without registering a win. He’s been consistent enough to warrant respect. #2 Namjong Plus is a winner of five from 14 for trainer Me Tsui and although he’ll need luck coming from the rear of the field, he still commands plenty of respect.

RACE 7: FENWICK HANDICAP

Very competitive Class 3 sprint with a stack of speed. #4 Special Stars faded to finish eighth last start at Sha Tin (1000m) up the straight, but his form prior at Happy Valley was excellent, as he managed to record two wins from four starts. Silvestre de Sousa might need to take a sit on him, as this race is likely to be run at a fast pace, but he has the class to return to form. #10 Coby Oppa rose 11 points up the ratings scale following an all-the-way win on the dirt at Sha Tin. Admittedly he’ll need to transfer that form to the turf, but his front-running style of racing should ensure that he is versatile enough to be competitive. #3 Dream Come True returned a career-best second place at the tale-end of last season. His trial form has been solid, and he should be thereabouts for trainer Benno Yung. #9 Gallant Return is a winner already over this course and distance this season. Caspar Fownes has this horse in career-best form and he’s one who will benefit from a fast run race.

RACE 8: ARSENAL HANDICAP

#1 Country Star began his career with a rating of 52 and in a matter of eight starts, he has skyrocketed up to 92 and is now chasing the hat-trick of wins in Class 2. Trained by John Size, he’s one of Hong Kong’s brightest prospects who has displayed an electrifying turn of foot across his short career. #4 Music Addition is a former Australian galloper who since arriving in Hong Kong, has managed to win his last two races in a row. He’s a legitimate threat to Country Star’s chances and these two should have a stranglehold over the market. #7 Storm Signal has crafted an imposing record (7: 1-2-3) this season and he’s the leading chance outside of the top two. #6 Hinchinlove comes out of the same race as Storm Signal. He’s yet to win in Hong Kong for trainer Chris So, but his last-start performance was full of merit, as he travelled three wide for the entire race but still managed to only finish half a length off the winner.