Handicapping the generous-paying late pick four

VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Going into this weekend the all-sources live mutuel handle at Hastings is up 16.7 percent compared to last year. Part of the reason for the upswing is the average number of starters per race is up from 6.90 last year to 7.13.

“Field size is king,” said Hastings general manager Darren MacDonald. “I am looking forward to Sunday, especially the late pick four ,which has full fields in all the races that make up the sequence.”

There are 69 horses entered for the eight races, 42 in the late pick four, which begins on race 5.

Hastings advertises a $10,000-guaranteed pool for the late pick four, but that’s like insuring the sun is going to come up. Last Sunday over $25,000 was wagered, and the 20-cent wager paid a typically generous $175.09.

There was a clear single on Sunday in the last race, Absolutely Stylish, and you didn’t need to go more than two deep in the $50,000 John Longden 6000 won by the 5-2 favorite Apalachee Bay. The only real stretch in the sequence was Stratacumulus, who paid $19.70 for her win in a bottom-level maiden-claiming race. She was the fifth choice in the wagering in an 11-horse field, but it was the kind of race you needed to go deep in. The other winner in the pick four, Sunburst, paid $11.90 and was the third choice behind heavily favored Dat Day and Ring of Kerry.

With that in mind here is a look at the sequence for this Sunday.

Race 5: Santa Fe Trail (3) should be favored in the $4,000 conditioned claimer for 3-year-olds and up. Trained by Dave Forster, he is coming off a third-place finish going 6 1/2 furlongs on June 8 and he is a much better horse going around three turns. He should be able to stalk a moderate pace, and adding to his appeal is that the past five years Forster has a 29 percent strike rate and $2.46 ROI with horses going from a sprint to a route.

El Alteno (4) also looks live. He is coming off an easy win in a $4,000 claimer for nonwinners-of-three sprinting and he has won going a middle distance on turf and Tapeta. Flemings Beach (7) is a five-time winner at the distance and will appreciate the class relief after facing much tougher in his last two starts, both in $6,250 conditioned claimers.

Race 6: Bad Girl (1) and Miss You Mother (2) should be part of any ticket. However, there are a myriad of possibilities in this bottom-level maiden claimer, including Playgirl Pixie (3), Rugged Beauty (4), Pajamas (5), Philly Force (8), Bombay (10), and Seagrove Bay (11).

Race 7: Totality (1) is the single. He is taking a significant drop into an $8,000 claimer for nonwinners-of-three after finishing third in an open $16,000 claiming race June 8. He is trained by Steve Henson, who the past five years has won with 29 percent of his starters that were dropping in value by half or more.

Race 8: Honky Tonk Woman (3) is a clear favorite, but her connections seem to be giving up on her early and the drop into a maiden claimer is a concern. Consider Dawns Morning (2), Hilariouslynaughty (4), Simply Golden (5), and Speedy Miss (9).

The cost of a 20-cent ticket using Totality as a single with all of the above horses mentioned is $24. Considering the recent payoffs in pick four at Hastings, if just one of the medium-priced horses wins, the payoff will be generous.