Handicappers in for a Thursday challenge
?q=100)
DEL MAR, Calif. – In sprints and routes, turf and dirt, handicapping challenges abound Thursday at Del Mar.
They begin in the first two races – a turf raffle for maiden 2-year-old fillies, followed by a claiming dirt mile in which a top contender faces a speed-friendly track profile.
Things simplify in the featured seventh race, a dirt mile for California-bred allowance fillies and mares, although the key entrant is a 3-year-old filly facing older for the first time after she scratched last week from a stakes race. It’s not an easy game.
The first race of the day might be significant, based on long-term potential of the 2-year-old fillies racing five furlongs on turf, including three well-regarded first-time starters. The distance might be too short for Supa Speed and Madonna of Loreto; the distance might be just right for Naples Gal.
:: DRF's Del Mar Handicapping Packages: Get everything you need to play the races with confidence.
John Sadler trains Supa Speed, sired by American Pharoah. “I think she’s a nice filly, but I don’t necessarily see her as a jackrabbit,” Sadler said. “I think she’ll probably like two turns better eventually.”
The same applies to Madonna of Loreto, by Caravaggio. “She’s a big, long, lanky filly,” trainer Phil D’Amato said. “She acts like she wants to go farther, but she’s shown talent. We’re expecting a good effort, and then probably stretch her out after this.”
Naples Gal is a first-time starter by War Front. “She trains pretty sharp,” trainer Richard Mandella said. Asked if she has speed, Mandella replied “mhmm.” Translation: yes.
Forwardly placed runners have won most of the turf sprints the first two weeks of summer, and if Naples Gal is quick, she could be gone. But she is no cinch in a field that includes firster My Perfect Wave, debut runner-up Sophistry, and also-eligible Twirling Light, a $600,000 juvenile purchase by Twirling Candy.
Speed has been effective this summer in dirt routes too. Eight of 13 winners were in the top two early. The profile benefits stretch-out Leyas Candy and front-runner It’s My House in the second race, a $32,000 claiming mile. The profile compromises Bright Leaf, a closer dropping from a fast starter allowance won by subsequent Grade 3 winner Midnight Mammoth.
On a fair racetrack, Bright Leaf would be a likely winner of race 2. He might still be. The knock is that backing deep closers in summer dirt routes has been a recipe for bankroll destruction. The challenge applies to off-the-pace Northern California shippers American Farmer and Mobou.
It gets easier in the featured seventh race, an allowance dirt mile for California-bred fillies and mares. Front-runners Smiling Lady, Nanci Griffith, and Illhaveanotherkiss will benefit most if the track continues to favor speed. But the most probable winner will be forwardly placed, just off the pace.
Lightly raced Loretta Lynn, trained by D’Amato, entered the $150,000 Fleet Treat Stakes last week. But after Loretta Lynn drew the rail in the sprint, D’Amato scratched Loretta Lynn to run in the allowance route Thursday.
“I’d like to continue to develop her, and I think the two-turn distance helps her,” D’Amato said. “She’s a big, scopy kind of filly with a high cruising speed. She’s had a chance to breeze twice over this main track, and done well.”
Loretta Lynn, 1 for 4 lifetime, makes her first start since late May and ranks among the most probable winners on the card. Kyle Frey rides Loretta Lynn.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.

