Handicappers must decipher turf stretch-out maidens

Maidens are the focus Friday at Del Mar, where four of the eight races are for non-winners. Four other races are starter allowances and claiming.

Del Mar leans heavily on turf and maiden races. Through Sunday, 48 percent of races were on turf and 38 percent were for maidens. Turf and maiden races combine Friday, with California-bred 2-year-olds going one mile on turf in races 3 and 5.

Race 3 is for fillies and race 5 is for either gender but features only males. Handicapping elements that require consideration include performance, pedigree, and trainer stats. Bettors also require a leap of faith, as both fields feature a lack of turf-route experience.

Race 3 includes second-time starters Grazen Gator, Renatus, and Orange Thunder. All three fillies ran well sprinting first out and have a license to improve. Based on her debut runner-up at five furlongs on turf, Grazen Gator should relish two turns.

:: Get Del Mar Clocker Reports straight from the morning workouts at the track. Available every race day.

Peter Miller trains Grazen Gator, who was not quick early, settled next to last, and uncorked an inside rally on the turn. Upon hitting the lane, Grazen Gator split horses, finished well, and galloped out willingly.

Although Grazen Gator’s dam was a sprinter, and progeny of Grazen often prefer one turn, Grazen Gator looked as if she will handle a mile. Miller’s record with second-start maidens commands attention. The past five years, Miller’s debut runners have won at a 10 percent clip, while his second-start maidens have won 25 percent (40 of 157) of the time, according to DRF Formulator.

Renatus, a full sibling to two-turn turf winner Curlin’s Kaos, finished a better-than-looked sixth in her debut and should improve second out. Antonio Garcia trains Renatus, whose pedigree and even-paced debut suggests two turns is up her alley.

Orange Thunder, a closing third in her turf-sprint debut, is a sibling to multiple graded turf-route stakes winner Closing Remarks.

Race 5 includes Cali Cat, a John Sadler-trained ridgling sired by American Pharoah and produced by a mare who won a Woodbine stakes at a mile on turf. Cali Cat finished sixth in his debut on dirt, but it was a creditable effort.

Cali Cat broke slowly, rushed forward to chase a fast pace from fifth, and tired in the lane. Not good, not bad, just okay.

With that race under his belt and a turf-route pedigree, Cali Cat should improve second out. Sadler’s second-start maidens moving from dirt to turf have won at a 27 percent clip (7 of 27) the past five years, according to Formulator.

Two main rivals for Cali Cat are also-eligibles Johnson’s Magic and Speedy Wilson. Johnson’s Magic finished a close second in his turf-sprint debut, beaten less than a length. Speedy Wilson ran well for third in his dirt-sprint debut. Call Me Sir, who is in the body of the race, finished fourth in his turf-sprint debut.

If the California-bred maiden turf routes are too tough, bettors may gravitate toward a potential layup in race 6. Seismic Beauty, runner-up by a neck in her promising debut, figures to be heavily favored in the six-furlong dirt sprint for maiden fillies and mares.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.