Hammersly: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, Dec. 6

One of my favorite wagering axioms, emphasized by friend and colleague Dave Litfin in his fine book “Dave Litfin’s Expert Handicapping”, is that you try to set up your wagers so that when you lose, you lose a little; when you win, you win a little…but sometimes you win big.

The application of that, in my mind, comes often in the form of a simple trifecta key. Say you have one horse you like. You can key him on top of five in a $1 trifecta and the cost is a mere $20. As noted above, sometimes the payoff may be only 4-1 or so but other times, with the right combination, well, you catch my drift.

Saturday’s Gulfstream card has some big, competitive fields which may be ripe for such a play.

Of course, you’re by no means limited to that type of wager. It’s just the example I’m using for this card. Three races appear to be candidates for such a play.

Race 1

COSTENIA may well go favored after a decent second at this level at Keeneland last month, a run that looks better when you note the horse she easily beat back into third came right back to win. But the big field and some decent competition likely means she won’t be overbacked. She can be your key here.

The five underneath candidates are COMME CHEZ SOI (improved on turf at Delaware at this level and may be ready to improve further), MOBILIZE (smart maiden winner at Laurel on Sept. 12, indicating she may have turned the corner for Shug McGaughey; worked well since), WORKERBEE (rallied smartly for second in a race like this here Nov. 11, a fourth straight good effort), CASH FOR EVER (dropping after running fifth in the Pebbles at Belmont, whose winner Lady Lara came back to be second in a graded stakes) and MARKET MAGIC (making her first start since Feb. 8 when she rallied for third on this course at this trip, not far behind Sea Queen, now a graded stakes winner, and returning for Bill Mott, who’s superb off the bench).

Race 4

RIBO BOBO found the Grade 1 Vosburgh waters far too deep Sept. 27, but a long string of strong stakes sprints show his quality. The freshening, drop, and return to this track (he’s a seven-time winner here) can do the trick.

The five underneath are QUIZ WHIZ (has considerable speed and loves it here, winning six times here), BLINGS EXPRESS (continues his good form and has the speed to be within reach from the start but is by no means a need-the-lead type), LOVERBIL (may be peaking as he was a nice second to Blings Express here Oct. 27 and then rallied to win here Nov. 14 and can go past some of the tiring speed), FRONTIER WARRIOR (comes here razor-sharp from Laurel, where he won four straight while moving up the ladder and steps up off the claim by Peter Walder, who is 26 percent off a claim) and DISARM (comes here sharp from Parx having won three of his last four, with ample tactical speed and some jazzy Beyers that indicate he is, if anything, getting better).

Race 9

LONGHUNTER was Grade 1 placed in a turf sprint at Woodbine 14 months ago and when he came here this winter he posted two roping wins and looked destined to make noise in graded turf stakes. Alas, then came two months off, a troubled and disappointing run in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Commonwealth on Polytrack and he hasn’t been seen since. The good news is trainer Mike Maker is quite capable off the bench, the work pattern is encouraging, and of course returning to turf, specifically this course, with the drop can do the trick. Oh, and he has run well before off the bench.

The five supporting players are SAYLER’S CREEK (keeps firing bullets with 10 straight top-three finishes, six of them victories; he has won the two prior times he ran on this course), NORTH STAR BOY (was not disgraced when sixth the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga on Aug. 30, beaten slightly more than two lengths by Horse of the Year Wise Dan and capable of bouncing back after fading in a strong optional claimer at Aqueduct last month), HARD ENOUGH (continues his strong form and has proven class as he won the Grade 3 Red Bank at Monmouth earlier this year), DREAMS CUT SHORT (darn near won the Vid on this course Sept. 13, then won a nice allowance race here Oct. 12 and drops after finding the Grade 3 Tropical Park Turf here Nov. 22 too tough) and SAFFRON HALL (continues sharp having won four of his last five; the lone loss came when he was likely in too tough when he faded to ninth in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Turf).