Hammersly: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, Dec. 13

We had some good fortune last week using a simple key-horse method with trifectas here last week. The theory is that if you have a horse you like quite a bit, then for a meager investment, you may have a nice hit. A $1 trifecta keying that horse on top of five others costs a mere $20. Three races are candidates for such a play Sunday.

Race 5

YOLO KITTEN’s sluggish start left him with far too much to do in his debut on the Churchill Downs sod Nov. 26, but to his credit, he kept to his task nicely to finish third. It’s no surprise that, being a son of Kitten’s Joy, he relishes the turf. The fairly quick turnaround is most encouraging, too. That race under his belt and a better start can add up to victory.

The five underneath candidates: HAY OATS AND WATER likewise was slow into stride in his turf debut at Aqueduct on Nov. 13, then had more trouble going into the backstretch. He’s bred to love turf and surely can move forward. HOON may well go favored as the gelding showed talent in England, came here and ran second on the Churchill turf Sept. 27 and third on the Aqueduct sod Nov. 13. UPDRAFT tries turf for the first time after a couple of sluggish dirt outings this spring/summer. He’s bred for it, has been working steadily on it, and while this is his first start in 4 1/2 months, he’s from a barn (Kiaran McLaughlin) who does very well off this type of layoff. HY QUALITY PRINCE ran on nicely to be second in the slop here Nov. 21, his second start. He tries turf for the first time but is bred for it. TACO GEM is a proven commodity on turf and figures in the mix.

Race 6

ARARAT was on a real nice roll here earlier in the fall. That good form (two wins and a second in four starts) was enough to earn a stakes shot here Dec. 6. That didn’t go well at all, as he dueled and ran up the white flag going to the far turn. He’s back in a much better situation class-wise, and so long as that Dec. 6 run didn’t knock him for a loop, he can get back on track and handle these.

The five supporting players: BEANTOWN SKIPPER won for this price here July 26 and has been knocking on the door since. He was only fourth in the slop here Nov. 9 but is capable of better. Trainer Tamara Levy is surely relying on that after claiming him last time. RANGEY comes off a strong turf second vs. tougher, and while his only two dirt starts weren’t pretty, they came vs. tougher, so trying dirt at this level could be a different start. He’s certainly bred to dirt. ASFATEWOULDHAVEIT ran fourth, about three lengths behind Arafat, here Nov. 15. That was an improved run after two dull outings, so maybe he’s getting back on track. DREAMING OF ANDY A comes off a decent second in a spot like this here Nov. 26, so he’s a proven good fit. His tactical speed can have him in a good spot from the bell. ARTEMUS COALMINE came here from Kentucky on Nov. 30, and after two months off, with blinkers added and a drop off the claim, gamely beat N2L foes for this price sprinting here. He’s handled this longer trip well before.

Race 8

HOWE GREAT appeared on his way to being a top-class miler a couple of seasons ago. Things haven’t quite worked out that way, though the multiple graded stakes-placed runner still has done lots of good work. This marks his first start in more than 11 months, but the drop helps, and trainer Tom Bush does very nicely off a long layoff like this (3 for his last 15, 20 percent). This 5-year-old also has done some of his best work on this course (3 for 5).

The underneath five: EXCAPER ran into some real toughies in Canada and handled himself well. His speed on the rail adds up to him as a big danger. ASSET INFLATION may be the quickest in here, but he’s also shown that he doesn’t need the lead should someone prove faster in the early going. He continues his sharp form. BAD DEBT is a rugged old pro who keeps on keepin’ on – hey, you don’t win 15 times by accident. He’s done lots of good work here and comes off a game tally last month to show there’s still plenty of gas in the tank. MSHAWISH was regarded highly enough earlier this year that after winning a Group 2 in Dubai, he faced some of the world’s best in the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free there and was a very nice fourth. He then failed to be a factor in the Group 1 Champions Mile in Hong Kong but may be getting his legs under him, if that solid third in the Grade 3 Knickerbocker at Aqueduct on Oct. 11 is any indication. FREDERICKSBURG was a solid second to Za Approval, a proven Grade 1 miler, in an ungraded stakes at Belmont on Sept. 7. He’s been freshened since and has the speed and versatility to handle this far-outside post.

I am going to tack on another wager in this race. I’d hate to key Howe Great on top, see him run big at say 8-1 or so (he’s 20-1 on the morning line, but I can’t believe he’ll be let go at so high a number) only to finish second. So, using the same key strategy, I’ll key him in the second slot, putting the five others on top of him and below him in the show spot for the $1 trifecta wager, which adds on another $20. If he runs worse than second, I lose.