Hammersly: Gulfstream pick three for Sunday, Jan. 4

Incorporating a race full of firsters in your pick three play is risky business, but it helps considerably when such a race is the first leg. It gives you a chance to see wagering action and make a physical assessment, so a pick three involving races 8-10 seems quite playable here. (This play is only if these three races stay on the turf.)

Race 8

STRICT COMPLIANCE (#5) looks like a solid ‘A’ in this one-mile turf race for maidens. He was splendid in his debut on Belmont turf Oct. 19, finishing a game second (beaten just a neck) while well clear of the others (2 1/2 lengths). Trainer Chad Brown is a superb 25 percent the second time out.

MARCH ON (#8) flashed talent on turf in England, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been amazing with runners making their first start in the U.S. (won with his last four). SUSIE’S BABY (#14) showed turf talent at Churchill on Nov. 9, finishing a game third (beaten less than a length) and may be ready to break through. TAPITRY (#1) cost $240,000 at auction, is wonderfully bred, and boasts a full, strong work tab for Shug McGaughey to indicate that she’s ready to run first time out. GARDEN PRINCESS (#9) likely can benefit from her debut run and has worked well on turf since, while LOX (#10) improved smartly in start No. 2 to finish third on turf, and a recent bullet work indicates that there may be more improvement forthcoming.

A’s) 5
B’s) 8, 14
C’s) 1, 9, 10

Race 9

STORMY RUSH (#8) found Canadian Grade 2 foes too much to handle July 6 but then finished a sharp third in a very strong optional-claiming turf sprint at Saratoga on Aug. 28. He’s been freshened since, and note that he’s 2 for 3 on this course. BATTLEFRONT (#9) did some good work in France last year. He came to the U.S. and, after 11 months on the bench, was no factor in his first two starts here, both at Churchill. In his defense, his first U.S. try came vs. tougher, and in start No. 2, he was troubled. And maybe he’s wanted to sprint all along.

RUBLE (#2) looked super in whipping similar on Churchill dirt Nov. 30. He moves to turf, on which he has just one third-place finish in four tries, but it could be that the light has gone on for him. FLASHLIGHT (#6) blasted $32,000 rivals in a Woodbine turf sprint Oct. 31, and the multiple-level class hike for this is most encouraging. GREAT ATTACK (#10) was once a turf-stakes sprinter, and while he might not be that horse any longer, there’s still gas in the tank.

A’s) 8, 9
B’s) 2, 6
C’s) 10

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Race 10

UPBEAT MOOD (#10) did plenty of good work in Southern California. Her first local start was so-so (third but beaten 9 1/4 lengths), but that came on dirt. She has that run under her belt, moves back to what may be her best footing, and a strong four-furlong work here Dec. 31 (48 seconds, breezing) says she’s ready. SPECTACULAR ME (#4) continues to fire bullets, and while speed is her main asset, note that that strong second here last month in a spot like this came from well off the pace after a sluggish start, so she’s versatile. Note, too, that trainer Michael Petro saw fit to claim her.

HIKE (#12) fizzled badly on yielding turf at Indiana Grand on Oct. 29, but her prior turf start was strong, and she came back to be a game second in the slop at Churchill on Nov. 23. That hints that she’s back on track, and with a Grade 1 turf winner as her daddy (Stroll), she figures in the long run to want this ground. MY BELLA BEAUTY (#8) fizzled when last seen at Belmont Park, but she caught yielding turf that day. Her prior form shows that she’s capable of much better, and she might show it after they’ve given her a freshening. MORE THAN SPECIAL (#3) moves back to turf, likely her best surface, with a smart main-track race at Woodbine under her belt and a class drop.

A’s) 4, 10
B’s) 8, 12
C’s) 3