Hammersly: Belmont pick four for Saturday, April 30
A couple of difficult maiden races bookend this pick four, but there’s enough information there to still allow you to take a stand.
Race 6
VANDALIZE (#1) flashed talent in his only start when a smart third against straight maidens at Gulfstream, though that was almost 15 months ago. The good news is he’s worked well, and trainer Todd Pletcher is superb off the bench. It is a tad worrisome that they paid $240,000 for him and are now willing to part with him for $50,000. POLICY PORTFOLIO (#5) has worked smartly for his debut. Usually with trainer Rich Violette Jr., if his horses go fast in the morning, they go fast in the afternoon. Violette is a solid 15 percent with first-time starters, too. GLOVES OFF (#3) showed ability on dirt in Florida a couple of months ago. After a layoff, he tried routing on turf, to no avail. He drops and returns to sprinting and dirt, all of which may get him back on track. Prior to that turf try April 14 at Aqueduct, he posted a bullet dirt work April 6, so this may be the game he prefers. PURE EXCITEMENT (#7) loomed and fizzled in his debut March 17. That was just his debut, so you can be forgiving, and it came against straight maidens, and he was well backed at 4-1. He can benefit from that run as well as from this class drop and has a strong 47.80-second work here April 24 to encourage. He’s a well-bred son of Tapit who cost $350,000 at auction, so it’s a little disconcerting that, as with the top pick, they’re now willing to part with him for $50,000.
A’s) 1, 5
B’s) 3, 7
C’s) None
Race 7
BELLAMY WAY (#2) comes here in top form, with five straight top-two finishes. He was no match for a big winner at this level at Aqueduct a few weeks ago but finished clear of third and may move forward off that run. SARATOGA WILDCAT (#3) looks like a nice claim by Rudy Rodriguez. He took him for $40,000, and the horse came back with a smart win and a second on the inner track. RALLY CRY (#4) looked like potential Derby material for a while. Things haven’t worked out that way, but he’s got talent and is still figuring things out. Still, it’s no easy feat for a 3-year-old to face elders this early in the year.
A’s) 2
B’s) 3
C’s) 4
Race 8
GREEN MASK (#5) has shown top-class ability at times. He hasn’t run since facing some of the world’s best in Hong Kong in December, but the freshening, the drop, and a return to a course he’s handled, all off a bullet work, make him scary. KING KREESA (#2) found Grade 1 foes too much when last seen last fall. He’s been freshened, drops, and returns to a place he loves. A LOT (#3) didn’t fire at Tampa a couple of months ago, but he’s certainly capable of better, and maybe the freshening can get him back on track. MOSLER (#1) won this last year off a layoff, albeit a much shorter one, and trainer Bill Mott is, of course, superb off the bench.
A’s) 2, 5
B’s) 3
C’s) 1
Race 9
WYETH (#1) has worked well for his debut for trainer Chad Brown, who routinely has his first-time starters ready to go. He’s a son of Candy Ride, who not only was top-class on turf but whose progeny relish the sod. This guy also cost $300,000, so you know there are some expectations here. GREEN PEA ESS (#2) is the proven commodity coming off three straight good turf sprints at Gulfstream. He’s shown ample tactical speed to be involved from the start, and like the rail horse, he’s a son of Candy Ride. SILENT MISSION (#12) sizzled and fizzled in his turf-route debut at Fair Grounds on Feb. 27 and was then no factor at Keeneland on April 15 in a turf sprint when pressing the pace and fading to 10th. Remember, he was facing winners that day. He’s back in against maidens here for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, and that change of altitude may be critical.
A’s) 1, 2
B’s) 12
C’s) None
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