Hammersly: Belmont Day pick four (races 2-5)
The entrée may be coming a bit later on the card but that doesn’t mean there aren’t appetizers to be enjoyed with the potential for padding the bankroll as the day’s first pick four is ripe with opportunity.
Race 2
The day’s races are so contentious it may be nice to start this exotic with a potential single, or at least a horse you can key as your "A" to set up your other tickets. LEGEND continues to trend north. After a freshening came a good 2nd in a Gulfstream route and then a smashing maiden win here May 4. Not only did he win smartly, earning a big Beyer (97), but that run was flattered as runner-up Tiz Dark, who finished 5 3/4 lengths clear of 3rd, came right back to win as well. It’s first time vs. winners for LEGEND, so that’s a big hurdle, but the Beyer looks good and a bullet half-mile work in 47 breezing May 31 says he holds his edge.
He’s by no means a slam dunk, however. LIFE IN SHAMBLES looks like the real deal, and like the top pick his Beyers continue climb. A game win at Gulfstream was followed by a game win at Aqueduct. That earned him a shot at the Sir Barton at Pimlico on Preakness Day, and while he lost this was his best effort as he battled all the way to the line to come up just a head short.
MISCONNECT broke his maiden for Todd Pletcher here last Sept. 28 but wasn’t seen again until May 17. However, he came back ready as he gamely beat N1X foes here. He’ll need to improve to be sure but that’s by no means out of reach. KID CRUZ was being considered for the Belmont but his connections opted for this. He showed talent this spring with two big wins in Maryland, and while his Preakness wasn’t pretty he doesn’t face that kind of opposition here. NO SURRENDER has come back a new horse, as after a long layoff he’s returned with 2 big wins. Another step forward makes him scary.
A’s: Legend
B’s: Life in Shambles, Misconnect, Kid Cruz
C’s: No Surrender
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Race 3
EVER RIDER is a distance specialist and that’s the game he gets here. He did so well going long in Argentina that he was made the tepid 9-2 favorite in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Marathon. That turned out to be a disaster (he was pulled up) but his recent form shows he’s back on his game. He was a nice 2nd in the Grade 3 Tokyo City at Santa Anita March 29 at this trip (winner Majestic Harbor came back to be 3rd in the Grade 2 Californian there last week). He shipped here for the 10-furlong Drosselmeyer and did everything right. Trouble is, GROUND TRANSPORT was just a head better. Today’s extra 2 furlongs play right into this guy’s wheelhouse.
CAT BURGLAR, though, is developing very nicely for Bob Baffert. After two smart wins at Santa Anita he shipped to Pimlico and was a fine 3rd in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special. That validated his quality. The question today is how he’ll respond to uncharted waters in terms of distance. That Pimlico Special was his longest race (1 3/16 miles) so he’s got to handle another 2 1/2 furlongs here. He has the speed to keep GROUND TRANSPORT honest up front.
MICROMANAGE is solid. His Grade 3 Skip Away win at Gulfstream March 29 was a beaut, and he kept to his task well to be 3rd (as the 9-10 favorite) in the Drosselmeyer not far behind GROUND TRANSPORT and EVER RIDER. The way he plugged along hints he can handle this longer trip. NORUMBEGA is interesting. He gave way badly in the Grade 3 Ben Ali on Keeneland’s Polytrack but has been freshened and moves back to his best game: dirt. He’s been working splendidly for Shug McGaughey, who isn’t in the Hall of Fame because he puts his horses in the wrong spots. ERIUGENA looks like a new horse since moving to dirt as he romped in his last 2 starts on Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs dirt. It’s a new trip but he’s by Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Shirocco with a Kentucky Derby winner as his damsire, so he’s bred for this.
A’s: Ever Rider, Cat Burglar
B’s: Micromanage, Norumbega
C’s: Eriugena
Race 4
UNDRAFTED has upset potential. The gelding hasn’t won in over a year but he hinted at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks Day that he may be ready to peak. He was no factor in the Grade 3 Commonwealth on Keeneland’s Polytrack April 12 but returned to turf in the Grade 3 Turf Sprint at Churchill May 2. He got knocked around at the start and had to bide his time, swung out very wide into the lane, and finished very well for 2nd. A better start can have him in a stalking position, which he probably prefers.
And, he’ll probably need every break to handle veteran BEN’S CAT and the tough MARCHMAN. BEN’S CAT is an absolute warrior. The 8-year-old gelding has won 26 of 39 starts. Of course, the bulk of that has come in the Maryland/Pennsylvania region so he’s dealing with new surroundings. But three straight wins show there’s still plenty of gas in the tank, and the footing doesn’t matter to him.
MARCHMAN was the guy who defeated UNDRAFTED in the Grade 3 Turf Sprint. Prior to that he also won the Grade 3 Shakertown on the Keeneland turf, so he comes here sharp as a tack with proven class. A bullet half-mile work in 46.80 breezing May 29 says he holds his edge. His speed should have him prominent from the start – and likely all the way around.
Some potential price-boosters include UPGRADE who looked super winning a strong optional claimer here last month. This guy has a touch of back-class, so if he’s ready to get back to his best he can be a danger. SALTO has been freshened by Pletcher – one of his power moves – and returns sprinting, something he hasn’t done in a long time. But this guy is versatile and he’s a proven graded stakes performer. POSITIVE SIDE deserves respect as he was 2nd by only a neck behind MARCHMAN in the Shakertown and 3rd only 1 3/4 lengths behind that guy in the Turf Sprint. And he figures to be ignored at the windows.
A’s: Undrafted, Ben’s Cat
B’s: Marchman, Salto, Upgrade
C’s: Positive Side
Race 5
EMBELLISHING BOB looked as though he was going to go by BAYERN when those two hooked up in the lane in the Grade 3 Derby Trial. Well, BAYERN wouldn’t let it happen. Trouble is, he bumped and floated out EMBELLISHING BOB and thus got disqualified. It was a second straight super effort by EMBELLISHING BOB, who has the makings of a Grade 1 King’s Bishop-type of horse. His maiden win, at six furlongs, was smashing, and accomplished on the lead. In the Derby Trial, at a mile, he showed he could press the pace and keep coming. That versatility figures to put him in good stead here as there are more than a couple speed merchants to establish a strong pace. He may fall into a great trip.
The main question is whether he or anyone else has the raw talent to match SOCIAL INCLUSION. That guy’s 3rd in the Grade 1 Preakness was very nice. After all, here was a horse short on seasoning who made a strong midrace move to try and match eventual winner California Chrome. Well, he couldn’t do it, but no shame in that. Remember, too, he had missed some training prior to the Preakness.
That isn’t the case today and there’s no question about the distance. His debut sprint win at Gulfstream was a beaut, and of course his romp over then-hot Derby horse Honor Code by 10 lengths for a 110 Beyer made jaws drop. There was talk he might go in the Belmont but cooler heads prevailed; this is a much better spot. No sense is cooking him in the Belmont and maybe losing a chance at the big summer prizes. This trip suits, he’s working lights-out and you know his quality. If they want to go from here to the Haskell/Travers path, so be it. But a big run here could also mean a race like the King’s Bishop and later this year the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Grade 1 Cigar Mile.
There are two concerns: he’s still a bit antsy in the starting gate, though at least in this race he’ll be far from the clamoring crowd. Also, if they opt to use his speed it’s not as if some others in here are just going to lie down and hand him the lead. He may have to work for it – hard. And that could make furlong No. 7 a big dodgy.
HAVANA was darn near last year’s 2-year-old champion, and while his Triple Crown dreams went down the drain after some issues this winter he came back with a decent run here May 4. That type of run may set him up for a forward move, and he showed last summer/fall he’s got some oomph. KOBE’S BACK failed as the chalk in his last two but has worked well since, and maybe being reunited with Joel Rosario can get him back on track. After all, Rosario was up for his best outing (95 Beyer when romping in the Grade 2 San Vicente).
BAYERN had a miserable early portion of the Preakness and was never involved. You might be worried about any lingering effects, but he’s worked well since, and the fact Baffert entered him here speaks of optimism. After all, he knew who he’d be running against. He could just as easily returned him to Santa Anita for the Grade 3 Affirmed. But he didn’t. His issue is speed. Not that he lacks it; just the opposite. His best work has come on the lead but things may be hot and heavy up there with SOCIAL INCLUSION and a couple others also gunning for the lead.
COUP DE GRACE was considered potential Derby timber until his disastrous sizzle-and-fizzle in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan. 25. He was given plenty of time to regroup, and trainer Chad Brown may have found something when he brought him back in a sprint, the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct April 5, as this guy got bumped at the start to be toward the back early, but bided his time, steadily advanced to reach contention and gamely persevered to get the win. Could be this is trip he really wants, at least at this stage of the game. And that patience and the ability to stalk and finish could be critical here.
A’s: Embellishing Bob, Social Inclusion
B’s: Havana, Kobe’s Back, Bayern
C’s: Coup de Grace