Halo Dolly a vulnerable favorite in Luther Burbank

SANTA ROSA, Calif. – Picking the winner of Sunday’s $50,000-added Luther Burbank Handicap at the Sonoma County Fair seems like a no-brainer.

What’s not to like about Halo Dolly in the 1 1/16-mile race for fillies and mares on turf?

She’s a millionaire, a multiple graded stakes winner (Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap and Grade 3 Wilshire Handicap) on turf, and a winner of eight stakes races on turf, including the Diamond Jubilee here as a 3-year-old. In addition, she has hit the board in all four of her starts this year, including a victory in the $100,000 Dream of Summer Stakes at Santa Anita.

Pretty impressive credentials. But there’s a rub.

Since 2012, when she won all four Northern California starts, including the Alameda County Fillies and Mares Stakes at Pleasanton and the Miss America Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, Halo Dolly has won only 1 of 6 Northern California starts and is 0 for 3 in Northern California stakes, including last year’s Luther Burbank, in which she was third in a photo at 3-5 after taking the lead in the stretch.

She’s been favored in all six of those races. Caveat emptor!

Key contenders

Halo Dolly (Last 3 Beyers: 87-77-96)

* A classy runner, but she’ll be over-bet again and is not a good bet. Still, she’s hard to ignore, despite her expected low price. Working in her favor is that she may be able to sit back a bit early, as Need You Now could provide pace pressure on Sing and Tell.

Sing and Tell (Last 3 Beyers: 89-85-75)

* It took her 11 tries to break her maiden, but Sing and Tell is 5 for 11 against winners and brings a two-race winning streak – including a win over Halo Dolly last time – into her stakes debut. She led Halo Dolly every step of the way in that race and was easing away late while spotting her rival two pounds. There’s a six-pound weight switch in her favor in this race, and she should get a great trip from the rail. She’s not a needs-the-lead type, so if Need You Now really pushes things early, she simply may stalk.

Freedom Reigns (Last 3 Beyers: 89-89-83)

* She’s looking for her first stakes win but has twice been the runner-up in turf stakes. Freedom Reigns may be last early, but she can finish. She hasn’t won in more than two years, and this may be a prep as she runs for the first time in three months.