Gun Runner most competitive of four juvenile stakes
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEA colt coming out of the Kentucky Jockey Club card last month at Churchill Downs stands a strong chance of winning the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes on Monday at Fair Grounds – though it’s not necessarily the colt coming out of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.
Hayes Strike finished third in the KJC, but Determinedly, a maiden winner earlier on that Nov. 26 program, is the better bet in the Gun Runner, a 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 2-year-olds that’s a prep for the prep for the prep for the $1 million Louisiana Derby, a March 26 prep for the Kentucky Derby.
The form from the inaugural edition of the Gun Runner a year ago worked out very well, with victorious Epicenter going on to become the leading dirt-route 3-year-old of 2022. Even runner-up Tejano Twist won a $250,000 sprint race last month in Ohio.
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Rocket Dawg was bet down to an illogical 4-5 before checking in sixth in the Gun Runner, a price that had much to do with his trainer, two-time Eclipse Award winner Brad Cox. For this Gun Runner Cox has Jace’s Road, listed as the 3-1 favorite on the track’s morning line, and if Jace’s Road is anywhere near that low Monday, it creates real value on horses with a better chance.
Jace’s Road delivered a sharp debut sprint win Aug. 6 at Ellis Park but was a humdrum third six weeks later in the Iroquois and eighth by 36 lengths over a sloppy track Oct. 30 in the Street Sense at Churchill.
“He had a meltdown before he went to the gate, maybe didn’t like the track,” Cox said, regarding Jace’s Road’s performance in the Street Sense. “I’m going to give him one more chance.”
Bettors need find no excuse for Determinedly, who looks like a better version of Enforceable, fourth in the 2019 KJC before taking an 11-point Beyer Speed Figure jump winning the Lecomte at Fair Grounds for trainer Mark Casse. Determinedly needed six starts to clear the maiden ranks for Casse, two more than Enforceable, but circumstances must be considered. He ran in a dirt sprint debut short of his best; three grass races; and was second at Keeneland behind the Bob Baffert-trained monster Arabian Knight.
Determinedly’s breakout Churchill score came over seven furlongs. His Beyer, 83, was tamped down by a slow early tempo. Determinedly showed the best pace of his career, won easily, and galloped out like a colt ready for two turns on dirt.
“He’s a horse we always liked a lot – it just took him a while,” Casse said.
Casse added that Luis Saez, who rides Determinedly on Monday, “never really asked him to run last time.”
“It was impressive,” Casse said.
Hayes Strike raced in tight quarters along the rail during the early stages of the KJC. Out in the clear for the stretch run, he came home evenly, part of a four-horse blanket finish for second behind victorious Instant Coffee in a race of questionable quality where three lengths separated the first seven across the wire.
Old Alliance, Raise Cain, and Mazing Mark have shown talent, but Andthewinneris is the other major player. A graded stakes winner on turf, Andthewinneris has galloped and worked better on dirt than his lone main-track start suggests, according to trainer Wayne Catalano. We’ll see Saturday if the morning exercise translates to an afternoon race.
◗ Debut Churchill winners are likely to give trainer Brad Cox a sweep of two $100,000 sprints for 2-year-olds going six furlongs on Monday.
Dazzling Blue probably won’t offer a shred of value in the Letellier for fillies, not considering the way she won Nov. 16 as an odds-on favorite in her only start. Dazzling Blue’s 75 Beyer hardly tells the whole tale of her performance in the six-furlong race. She raced on cruise control, setting a strong pace and drawing powerfully away from her pursuers with a 12.37-second fifth furlong. She won in a jog and galloped out far in front. Owned by Juddmonte Farms, Dazzling Blue has Florent Geroux back in the irons Monday. She’d be appealing at the morning-line price of 5-2, but, sadly, likely will be a far lower price.
Twice Is Sweet is the only filly among the eight entrants with a stakes win, having captured the $100,000 Smart Halo last month at Laurel Park by more than six lengths. The start before, she was second at Keeneland to the Cox-trained Key of Life, who lacks the raw talent of Dazzling Blue. Twice Is Sweet, however, should be the Letellier’s second choice, though the morning line pegs her at 4-1 behind 7-2 Promise of Hope.
◗ While Dazzling Blue has a stretch-out pedigree, Cox doesn’t want to run her long right away, and he’s taking the same approach with Corona Bolt, a sharp sprint winner Nov. 19 at Churchill in his only start and the presumptive odds-on favorite in the $100,000 Sugar Bowl for 2-year-olds. Corona Bolt’s bloodlines also suggest two turns, but Cox said a couple weeks ago he wants another sprint start for the son of Bolt d’Oro.
Corona Bolt had push-button acceleration winning by one length over Communication Memo in the 6 1/2-furlong maiden race. Communication Memo returned Dec. 16 to capture an Oaklawn Park maiden mile by four lengths.
Corona Bolt already is faster than his five Sugar Bowl rivals, a talent gap likely to be reflected in his win price.
◗ Trainer Brendan Walsh won the first running of the $100,000 Untapable Stakes a year ago with North County and has the morning-line favorite in Pretty Mischievous for Monday’s second renewal. The Untapable is for 2-year-old fillies going a mile and 70 yards.
North County ran her record to three wins from three starts in the Untapable, but since then has two fourth-place finishes and a seventh. Pretty Mischievous, a winner in her first two starts before a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Golden Rod last month, looks more substantive, but this 10-runner Untapable also looks stronger than the six-starter 2021 affair.
Pretty Mischievous, a Godolphin homebred by Into Mischief, won two Churchill sprints in fall before trying two turns Nov. 26 in the Golden Rod. She raced from mid-pack after an awkward, slightly stumbling start, but thereafter got a decent trip, finishing evenly while no match for odds-on favorite and winner Hoosier Philly.
Vahva looked impressive winning a seven-furlong maiden race on the same Nov. 26 Churchill card and also returns in the Untapable. By Gun Runner, Vahva was beaten more than 14 lengths debuting during the early part of the Saratoga meet, when the track surface was radically deep and laboring. She ran considerably better there second time out before her eye-catching, pace-pressing win going seven furlongs last month.
“She always looked the part, and when she got into training she acted the part,” said trainer Cherie DeVaux. “We were quite disappointed in how she debuted, but in hindsight that track was very deep and unlike Keeneland, where she’d been training. I’m looking forward to seeing how she stretches out. I’m pretty confident she will.”
The Alys Look rode an inside speed bias to a maiden win over a soft Fair Grounds field. She isn’t getting loose Monday and is a bet-against at relatively short odds.
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