Gulfstream Park handicapping roundup: Week of March 1

3-year-old turfers and sprinters take their turn

Saturday’s card at Gulfstream doesn’t offer a race with the Kentucky Derby significance of last week’s Fountain of Youth, but, as usual, Florida racing fans will be treated to some of the best 3-year-old racing in the country.

The Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes drew most of the better 3-year-old turf horses from the region. It would not surprise to see two or three of these runners return next month in the Grade 1 Blue Grass on Keeneland’s Polytrack, a surface over which many horsemen like to test turf runners.
Given the large field in the Palm Beach, the edge belongs to Storming Inti, whose early speed and inside post should keep him out of trouble. Inevitably, that won’t prove the case for many others behind him.

Typically in large turf fields, horses running in the middle or rear of the pack will have to sit and hope for a hole to materialize, or run the risk of losing ground with a wide trip.

Mr Speaker is Storming Inti’s most likely challenger. He is returning to turf after a failed try on dirt in the Grade 2 Holy Bull. Mr Speaker won the Grade 3 Dania Beach in December in fast time with a favorable inside-rallying trip from eighth. Maybe he can get lucky Saturday from post 10 and get a similar ground-saving journey, but he seems more likely to race in the three or fourth path with his draw.

One race before the Palm Beach, two elite 3-year-old sprinters in Havana and No Nay Never return from layoffs in the Grade 2 Swale at seven furlongs. No Nay Never is the selection, having been in more serious training than Havana leading up to the race. Havana has been playing catch-up, working every five to six days since Feb. 1 just to make the race.

Those looking for value in a short field might give thought to Prudhoe Bay, whose stalking style and sprint form is solid, though against lesser competition.

Allowance matchup

Anchor Down and Danza highlight race 3, a first-level allowance for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs. Both are likely to be stakes competitors this spring.

Although Danza is the more battle-tested of the two, having run a fast-closing third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special last year, Anchor Down is the choice and likely the better long-term prospect. He looked uncomfortable taking dirt in his face after a tardy start in his debut Jan. 25, but once taken to the outside by Javier Castellano, he picked up horses quickly and won going away with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Although some horses regress off large first-out figures, he doesn’t appear to be such a type, given how he overcame early difficulty. With a clean break, expect Castellano to put him in the race early, keeping him clear of the kickback.
Fountain of Youth day bias?

Although the consensus among writers is that the Gulfstream track was heavily biased toward speed on Fountain of Youth Day last Saturday, let’s not be so quick to dismiss the possibility that Wildcat Red and General a Rod, the one-two finishers in the Fountain of Youth, might simply have been best – along with the other successful front-runners that afternoon.

Speed is consistently beneficial on dirt across the country, and the mere fact that the winner of the Fountain of Youth wasn’t the favored Top Billing, who is a late runner, or a horse trained by Todd Pletcher doesn’t necessarily mean the track was biased.

Wildcat Red and General a Rod were logical contenders with proven credentials, and the public didn’t dismiss them, backing them to 9-2 and 3-1 odds.

A greater surprise would have been if East Hall, a 72-1 outsider, had closed from 11th to finish better than his fourth-place finish. If we accept the widely held belief that the track was strongly biased toward speed, does that suddenly suggest that East Hall can become a factor on the Kentucky Derby trail? I think not.

My two cents: Wait for some of these front-runners and closers from the undercard to return, and see how they do before rushing to judgment in pronouncing a bias.