Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park handicapping roundup: Week of Feb. 8

Byron King|Feb 06, 2014

Thoughts on Saturday

A few thoughts and statistics on Saturday’s card:

◗ The impeccably bred Miss Besilu, who goes in the sixth race, a first-level allowance on turf at 1 1/16 miles, is sure to be heavily played. Nevertheless, she bears watching for down the road when she heads into tough company, where her price could become more palatable.

After winning a maiden turf race smartly Dec. 7, she was unlucky to draw the outside post in a field of 10 in the Ginger Brew Stakes on Jan. 5 and did well to finish second to a ground-saving Candy Dandy. A naturally speedy horse who should be the type to not regularly lose ground, she ended up with the widest trip, covering 40 more feet than the winner, per Trakus data.

◗ Riposte comes to America from Europe, where she was a Group 2 winner at Ascot last year at 3. In case you are wondering when handicapping the Grade 3 Suwannee River, in which she races, how her new trainer, Hall of Famer Bill Mott, does with first-time imports: According to Formulator, of 12 foreign shippers racing on turf over the past three years, he has 1 win, 1 second, and 4 thirds. They tend to do much better once they have gained U.S. experience.

That is not to say that Riposte can’t win the Suwannee River. She rates a narrow edge over Abaco based on what she has done, but don’t expect her to hit her peak before later in the spring or even the summer.

◗ Advice for the Gulfstream Park Sprint: Forget connections, and bet the race based on form. From that perspective, the Calder-based Singanothersong is the most deserving play. He has an affinity for the Gulfstream surface and a clear edge in terms of last-race Beyer Speed Figures, having just run a 99 in winning the Mr. Prospector over Fort Loudon.

Looking ahead to Sunday

Even with a couple of graded stakes Saturday, Sunday’s card figures to be even better, with the two Grade 1 races, the Donn and the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, as well as the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie, a race featuring champion Groupie Doll.

I’m most intrigued by the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and the Donn.

In the turf race, Summer Front is likely going to be tough to beat. Aside from a flat showing on a rain-soaked Polytrack surface in the Shadwell “Moved Off Turf” Mile, he has been in top form since the summer.

He might also have a fitness edge over Imagining and Amira’s Prince, neither of whom has raced this year.

In the Donn, obviously Will Take Charge is the most likely winner, but with him shipping to Gulfstream for his first start of the winter, now looks like a time to try to beat him.

The ones I like are Lea and, to a lesser degree, River Seven. Both are stakes winners at Gulfstream this winter, and the former won the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope in his first start for Mott with a strong finish. Lea is a horse with natural speed but one who settles kindly, suggesting he ought to be well positioned and manageable for his rider in the 1 1/8-mile Donn.

Recent wide turf trips

Echoing my past columns, I believe ground loss to be an overplayed and overrated angle on dirt. Many forget that some horses have a regular style that takes them wide, and others forget the disadvantage that comes when a horse is in traffic behind rivals on the main track, getting kickback in their face.

Still, I don’t dispute the negativity of a wide trip on turf when it is related to an unlucky outside draw. So, here is a list of turf horses from last week at Gulfstream who performed well despite outside posts that led to them losing ground. Data on extra feet traveled is from Trakus, measured relative to the average ground traveled of all the race competitors.