Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park handicapping roundup: Week of Feb. 15

Byron King|Feb 13, 2014

Thoughts for Saturday

Some thoughts and statistics on the Saturday card at Gulfstream:

◗ It has been a while since Anjaz and Preferential competed, with the former most recently running Aug. 5 at Saratoga when second in the Waya Stakes and the latter unraced since winning the Dowager at Keeneland on Oct. 20.

But they have stayed busy on the work tab, with Anjaz breezing 18 times since her last race and Preferential 12 times as they prepared for their first meeting in Saturday’s The Very One Stakes.

The two mares are limited by being turf-marathon specialists, which makes races for them scarce, particularly at this time of year. And in the case of Anjaz, she missed a race in September when it was moved off the grass and onto the main track.

Both mares also were supposed to run in the La Prevoyante in December, only to see Calder scrap that race on entry day due to it attracting a short cast.

As for Preferential, her last race won’t rate well on Trakus or performance figures that take into account ground loss, but her inside-trip win in the Dowager was visually striking, with her accelerating to victory after being boxed in.

She has been a steady worker at Gulfstream this winter, breezing every seven days since recording her first work over the local strip Dec. 10.

◗ With the Gulfstream turf playing quickly this meet, and with firm conditions expected Saturday, the Mac Diarmida Stakes is Twilight Eclipse’s race for the taking. He is at his best under such conditions.

Slumber is his greatest adversary, having run quickly on occasion, but he seems less inclined to like the three turns of the 1 3/8-mile Mac Diarmida than the staying Twilight Eclipse.

Suntracer and Amen Kitten are the most logical contenders outside of the top pair, with Alpha, a multiple Grade 1 winner on dirt who is trying turf for the first time, being the wild card.

◗ Notably entered in Saturday’s sixth race, a one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds, is Charge Now, a son of Tiznow out of Supercharger – meaning he is a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

Such a flashy pedigree won’t be lost on horseplayers, who are sure to bet him down. And precisely for that reason, he is a horse to play against.
He has a better chance than most to become a good horse, being by a top sire and out of a proven mare. But expectations run too high for types like him, and that leads the siblings of successful runners frequently starting as underlays.

Other runners out of Supercharger include Grade 3 winner Brethren (an overrated horse), a stakes-placed runner in the 1-for-7 Lisa T, and one other multiple winner in Hedge Fund (5 for 57 with earnings of just less than $161,000). Such production is better than the norm, but it’s not as if she has dropped Grade 1 horses every year.

Charge Now’s presence should create fatter odds in the sixth race on top selections H Town Brown and Dance Champion as well as on first-timer Unikat, whose pedigree screams for him to run on turf.

Recent wide turf trips

Continuing a feature that began with last week’s Gulfstream column, here is the lowdown on horses coming off wide trips on turf that were largely the result of their posts. The idea here is that the horses listed below should move forward with better draws in their next races, which should allow them to grab more ground-saving positions.