Gulfstream Park: Closer Looks for January 1, 2014

Race 1

Game Day

Finally lands into a field without much pace opposition and he should take full advantage from the rail today; lost to Soulsinging 2 races back but did more of the grueling work up front; worth some consideration if the price is right.

Birds Gone Wild

Beginner hails from multiple G1 type Birdstone who banked 1.57 million and whose offspring have won 9 percent of their debuts; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Tease Points.

Delta Bluesman

Notice the strong work tab during December; the colt caught a sloppy track in his sole appearance here and could improve by lengths and bounds over a dry surface; can earn a share at a square price.

Lincoln Law

Moved into contention in that last try at Churchill which followed a very long layoff; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.79 million; the dam won 1 of 3 and 34K; among the winning sibs is 24K earner Tiz Our Insight; playable.

Easement

Bolted in the last run losing all chance but the previous effort is noteworthy in that he was part of a strong pace before fading at the top of the stretch; would benefit today if the early fractions are not that heated.

Mr. O'Leary

On pace cross-reference, this New York import should be a major player; the horse who defeated him at Belmont came back to win a 1x allowance race before tiring thereafter in the G1 Malibu; fine half-mile breeze on 12/23; dangerous.

Soulsinging

Tries blinkers for the first time after failing to break alertly in the last assignment; has shown a decent first gear in the past and should be within the first flight in the opening moments; tries seventh different rider in as many starts, however.

Successful Runner

Finished a remote second in February and his initial effort turned out to be a key affair; his sire won multiple G2s and 654K while the dam won 2 of 17 and 66K; among the winning siblings is 97K earner Kimono.

Clever Story

Very unlucky colt was sired by Breeders' Cup Sprint champ Midnight Lute who compiled 2.69 million; the dam lost her only race; among the winning siblings is 1.08 million earner Yes It's True; can easily rebound under expert rider. By Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Lincoln Zypher

Projects to own the best-gate speed in this event after dueled-into-defeat at shorter when going 1st blinkers; lacked stamina in 2 prior-Mile losses; only has Ben Jacob to fend off early and could be loose on an easy lead which is always a positive scenario; know him early then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Ten and Four

Major-2nd time out wakeup call but neither race was very enticing; the debut-last -place finish looks better since the winner and runner-up posted 77-70 Beyer speed figures in next-out KEE-Grade 3 and MSW wins; hopes for a stronger late kick 2nd time back off the 97-day absence.

Rumblefortheroses

Wanted no parts of dirt or blinkers in last; removes the hood for this; another great sign is that his co-field-best Beyer was in his career debut which accounts for his only turf race during career and at today's Mile distance; stamina has been the concern but seems the one to catch and beat.

Desenhado

Lacked stamina in the 6F debut; sire was a graded-stakes winner at 9F on dirt; he is 27-for-306 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 4-0-0-1 on grass (4K); 3 of 7 foals to race on North American turf are winners including 65K-turfer Cacau (1-for-9).

Spanish Ranch

Raced midpack then faded when racing to his 25-1 debut odds; willing to exucse the wet-turf unveiling and expecting a lot better on firm ground; makes the MSW-to-maiden claiming class drop the biggest class reduction in racing; see some upside.

Grizzle

MSW-to-maiden claiming is the biggest class drop in racing; races 2nd-time out today along with 1st blinkers both are winning angles for his trainer; another who caught a wet-turf course in the unveiling and deserves a 2nd chance on firm grass; contender.

Ben Jacob

Projects to battle Lincoln Zypher to the lead; exits a career-best Beyer when sent this long on turf but had no answers for Valid Concept who follows him here; new rider got off to an 0-for-21 start at the GP-winter meet; enters with his heaviest-weight assignment ever at 122 pounds.

Normandy Landing

Ran to the 58-1 debut odds when racing midpack early then faded badly; some runners improve strongly 2nd-time out and he has plenty of room to move forward for this; another who raced on wet turf and deserves a 2nd chance on firm footing; overall others appeal more.

Our Mystical Man

Lone-debut runner in the field; sire is 17-for-144 with 1st-turf starters; 24-for-266 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-for-31 dam (35K) who went 1-0-0-0 on grass; her only other foal to race is 17-0-0-1 Mystical Mary (3K) who went 0-for-1 on turf.

Valid Concept

Posted a co-field-best Beyer at today's distance on fast-GP dirt; just missed in this same spot in last and would not mind this moved to a fast-dirt oval either; has had many chances to score and will need a pace meltdown to graduate here; is likely to get it with Lincoln Zypher-Ben Jacob signed on here; only must overcome the ground-losing post but is the pick. By Art Gropper

Race 3

Powerlope

Toss last; wrong distance and he disliked the going; show horse in the Philly finale cashed next out took a $25K N3L claimer, lost next 3; runner showed foes at 18-1 for the last win and guess somebody had to be second in the short field two back; has some things to iron out.

Bar Magic

Can't fault those that believe in Magic; he's beaten higher priced foes, got a feel of the surface on Christmas Eve, and was inching toward the winner in last; nearly 3 clear the last time he was claimed, the shorter trip just may work to his advantage; note wraps were added last time; try to get a good look at him on the track.

C D Gold

Proven locally, runner handles any kind of going and runner has the two races to draw from now; show horse in the last win cashed next out in a $6250 N2L, lost next pair; can t fault those that project a peak performance here.

Grand Jetsetter

This is his venue; runner has proven he can bear down and win the close ones; gelding could be a bit fragile as the races have been spaced and if you toss the grass races, the form brightens; barn continues to win in bunches; repeat well within the realm.

Bold Distinction

Runner got good here for about a month last year; he has some semblance of speed but can't see him clearing here; if you figure he was just a little short in last, then a case could be made for improvement; would still think long and hard before taking too short a number.

Full Moon's Back

Not disgraced the last time in town and love the spacing of the comeback drills; fact he won the debut and also cashed off the pine last time gives him a right to be on the muscle here; versatility could be his best asset as he doesn't need the lead to succeed; don't ignore.

Kanavayen

Have always loved the claim back angle especially when talking about a 41% barn; proven fresh, runner may not have cared for the going last time; the 5/24 winner repeated in a $20K optional, lost next several; place horse 5/24 won three times since, the last in a $10K optional at Calder; major threat.

Defend

This is his venue; protected in last, and maybe connections had this race in mind all along; wonder what happened to the speed he flashed in the 2nd start of last year?; the hotter the pace the better for this guy. By Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Gambler's Ghost

Did not live up to favoritism first time out but might have been hampered by the wide draw; his sire is the mighty Ghostzapper who won multiple G1s and 3.44 million; the dam won 2 of 7 and 76K; among the winning siblings is 121K earner Beautifier.

Sheket

Never got involved in his unveiling last month while going to post at triple-digit odds; his sire won a trio of G1s and 698K while the dam won 4 of 11 and 113K; winning siblings include 156K earner Silent Moon.

Ragtime

Beginner shows an extra-fine workout on 12/22; the colt's sire won multiple G1s and 1.12 million (descendants of Henny Hughes have scored in 35 out of 217 debuts); the dam was zero for 2 and there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Monteamira

Changed running styles in that second performance; his sire won multiple G3s and 373K; the mom won 2 of 16 and 88K; among the winning siblings is 25K earner Our Republic; interesting possibility.

Casselberry

Firster hails from G1 victor Songandaprayer who captured 380K and whose progeny have won 61 out of 598 initial starts; the dam was unraced and this is her sole foal to make it to the races.

Bay of Plenty

Breezed in strong fashion last week; his sire is the top-notch Medaglia d'Oro who won multiple G1s and 5.75 million (his offspring have won 10 percent of their first tries); the dam went zero for 5; winning sibs include 319K earner Fortify.

Madd Exchange

High-percentage connections send out this grey, son of Exchange Rate who garnered 479K including G2 success (his descendants have won 61 out of 426 debuts); the dam won 1 of 5 and 28K; winning sibs include 187K earner Sca Doodle.

Hallowed

Yet another newcomer in the field with a strong work tab; this one's sire banked a total of 2.28 million including multiple G1 scores (offspring of Mineshaft are 20 for 291 as far as winning their first test); the dam was zero for 2; sib to 65K earner Band of Outsiders.

Charlie the Boss

Sired by multiple graded stakes winner Street Boss who compiled 831K and whose progeny have won 20 out of 95 initial races; the dam did not compete; among the winning sibs is 158K earner Star Queen. By Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Big Island Boy

Even the Score about 13% with first-time turfers in a 127-runner sample; sire won 9 times, thrice on grass, banked over $750K; dam out of the money in only out; family is solid; all 4 siblings won; one cashed on grass; top kin Fletchers Cove banked over $200K; 2nd and 3rd in finishers in last took MSW events next out with 79 and 81 Beyers respectively; must show more.

Picozza

Stumbled early but still ran decently; 3 for 19 dam won on grass once, earned over $100K; one of 3 siblings won; that runner took one dirt route; love the spacing of the return drills; expect much better effort here.

Ringold

Hard to be overly positive after dull turf debut; stakes winning 5 for 22 dam banked over $300K, was turf only; all 4 siblings won; 3 won on grass; top earner Tutti Buona Gente won twice on turf, banked nearly $250K; not sold on chances.

Dance Champion

Medaglia d'Oro has won with about 10% of his debuters in a 390-horse sample, with about 9% of his first-time turfers in a 274-runner study; sire was 2nd in only juvenile out beaten just over 2 at TP with a 81 Beyer, went on to earn over $5.7 million, never turfed; dam took debut at 2, won twice on grass, took a Grade 3, earned nearly $600K; the lone sibling that won once did so routing on dirt; colt looks fit enough.

Waco

Fourth new pilot takes the reins; G2 winning 3 for 8 dam banked over $170K, never turfed; one sibling lost 8 times; the other took 2 of 16 in the minor league, lost 4 times on grass; could at least muddle the pace.

Royale Sky

Colt seems to be racing himself into shape; SW 3 for 16 dam earned about $80K, never turfed; 3 of 4 siblings won, the one that tried grass once was out of the money on turf; don't be shocked if this guy rebounds in a big way.

Summer Cove

Colt flashed brief speed to kick it off, could be more involved early with the blinks today; dam's lone win was a dirt route; lone half bro lost twice; expect rider, who is 27% for this barn in the last year, to be aggressive and send hard; respect.

Recall Dynaformer

Dynaformer about 10% with his firsters in a 873-horse sample and about 14% of his first time turf runners in a 789-horse study; sire could carry speed on grass, won at 2, earned nearly $700K; dam's lone win was a dirt route; several multiple race winners in the tree including Group 3 winner, double turf winner and near $200K earner; homebred should be able to run all day long.

Ironicus

Distorted Humor has hit with about 9% with first-time turfers in a 477-horse sample; sire did not race at 2, earned over $750K, never turfed; SP 4 for 18 dam earned over $125K, won once on grass; 6 of 7 siblings won; several won on grass including G3 placed near $300K turf earner Minister's Joy; snappy drill on the 24th is eye-catching. By Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Love to Score

She's multiple stakes placed, but she's been at her best racing over dirt in her career, and this has to be viewed as being a tough spot for her to get back over turf and meet up with stakes competition again; prefer to look toward others.

Triple Arch

Stakes placed miss jumped up on a field at just over 33-1 in her latest start and she beat today's rival She's Spooky in that race, but with horses like Tapicat and Tokyo Time signed on, this is a much tougher test for her; feel that a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Tapicat

Grade 3 winner was really coming into her own when placed over turf at this time a year ago she really hasn't run a bad race since then; 725k purchase has to be regarded as a top contender in her 4-year-old racing debut; note the success Rosario has had riding for this barn, especially at Gulfstream Park.

Coarsegold

Minor stakes winner has done some nice work over turf from 11 starts and one of the better performances of her career was when she was last seen competing over this turf course; this barn has been live lately and note that Bravo has been aboard for a few of her sharper starts.

She's Spooky

She's been on top of her game lately, but it looks like an early breather will be a key in order for her to keep something in reserve for the run through the stretch, and it does look like there's enough early speed signed on in here to prevent that from happening.

I Ain't Gonna Lie

There are a few horses in this race who have shown the ability to run well over dirt and this seems likely to prove to be a tough spot for this filly to try to secure her fourth consecutive victory; respect the fact that she's won three of five over the main track here, but looking toward others.

Sharapova Slams

She's another in here who appears to be a top of her game entering this event, and this is a filly who has displayed fine positional speed which usually helps lead her to a comfortable trip, but she is going to need to be ready to take her game to another level to get the better of the top contenders in here.

Tokyo Time

Really liked what this miss showed when she put blinkers on four starts ago, and a strong case can be made for her being best when she settled for second in the G3 Herecomesthebride stakes; however, she has been disappointing in her two most recent starts; nevertheless, she looks like one of the top two contenders along with Tapicat.

Dreaming of Sophia

This wouldn't be a bad spot for this multiple stakes winner to get back over dirt, and although it was over a sloppy surface, her career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over the main track here; she's tough to ignore while going out for a high win percentage barn.

Sunrise Kitty

She really hasn't run a bad race to date, but this is a tough spot for her to make her first start beyond six furlongs; viewing her as being an early pace factor, but going to look for others to have more to offer through the final furlong. By Brian Pochman

Race 9

Wildcat Red

Saw his number taken down in the restricted stake here last time but he's finished in front of each of his foes in 3 starts; stretches out for his return from the freshening and he boasts several solid interim breezes; he figures to offer early lick at this trip and the inside slot gives him an edge to find a spot close up from the bell, but he started to get weary late at a shorter trip last time and his numbers have been on the decline; maybe the time off did the trick, but prefer others on the win end.

Gone as Wind

Gives the trip another shot after settling for third money off the freshening in his first crack with winners; colt was ok in breaking his maiden from a tracking spot and he is lightly raced so he could move forward at any time; dam was a route winner so maybe he moves forward second time at this one turn mile.

Enthrone

Broke his maiden over a wet local main track at this trip 2 starts back; like the late run he made from a wide spot on the lawn when raised to this level last time but he'll need to take a good step forward in his return to dirt to have a say in the outcome here; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Aarons Orient

He looked pretty good sprinting earlier in the year and he's got plenty of early lick; troubled break did him in at Laurel last time so the effort can be excused and this guy's dam did win a route stake so maybe he's able to handle the added trip; with the barn's top pilot getting aboard they'll probably have to run this guy down to win.

East Hall

Gelding has a couple of solid local trip tries under his belt and now he'll move on to try better; he hasn't run particularly fast and that's a concern as he has already run 8 times and may not have the upside of some of these; would limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Pablo Del Monte

Aired at odds on first out at Keeneland as do many of this barn's runners, but he followed it up with a big allowance score there a few months back before failing as the chalk when shipped to California to tackle stakes foes; colt removes the hood for his return to the main track and he's certainly working as if he'll take to this footing; expect he'll be able to find a tracking spot here and the top half of his pedigree says the trip should pose him little trouble; contender.

Best Plan Yet

Statebred ran away from restricted stakes foes at 2 turns at Calder in the fall and now he'll get back in with open company in his return; he handled one turn racing without any problem during the summer and he's quick enough to stay in touch with the front runners here; one to fear in the lane.

Grand Arrival

Zito colt faced some pretty good ones at this one turn mile in New York after breaking his maiden impressively in the Saratoga slop; he should like this bunch better but he'll have to prove himself over a dry strip before we could get too excited about his chances; nice to see a top pilot take interest, though, and the price will be right.

General a Rod

Outside drawn colt ran big first out at Keeneland and his big trip effort at Churchill first time in shades was even better; he'll tackle stakes runners in this spot, but the post should help put him in good position from the bell and with just a couple of tries under his belt he certainly has a right to keep moving forward; can't be overlooked. By Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Rock Idol

He might be able to prove to be an early pace player after breaking from the rail post but he hasn't shown anything in his first three starts to help give him the look of a contender; strictly an outsider.

Haylen Returns

He barely registered a blip on the Beyer Speed Figure radar screen after going to post at over 90-1 for his career debut and it's obviously going to take a much improved performance in order for him to prove to be a threat.

Rontos' Dream

The long layoff after a sub par performance is an obvious concern but he's run races in the past that are fast enough to threaten for the top spot against these; winner from latest won next out at Kee on 4/10 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 81 Beyer and 3rd finisher won next out at PID on 9/5 going 1m 70y vs. MSW rivals with a 65 Beyer.

Farleys Mandate

His best race appears to be strong enough to sneak his way into the mix against these and he's making his first start for a high win percentage barn that does well with new acquisitions; he has his share of appeal with the hot-riding Lopez getting the call.

Back to Values

He might prove to be the dominant early speed in here and he won't mind the turn back in distance after a couple of starts going a mile; he might be begging for the finish thgrough the final furlong, but his early speed helps give him at least mild appeal.

Fiddlers Tango

From 10 starts, his best finish to date is a fourth and he's yet to finish within 5 1/2 lengths of the winner; he didn't run well in his first start over this turf course in his latest outing and it's just tough to give him a favorable push in this spot.

Facundo

It would've been nice to have seen him show more in his turf debut in his latest outing, but like the effort he showed up with over a sloppy surface at second asking, and it isn't unreasonable to give him another chance to see what he can do over turf, especially while dropping in class; winner from latest returned to win next out here on 7/20 going 1 1/16m over turf in a 75k stakes with an 80 Beyer.

Divine Michael

He's run races over turf in the past that are fast enough to suggest that he can be competitive in a spot like this and he figures to appreciate getting back over turf after staying in a number of off-the-turf events most recently.

Round Midnight

He'll have every bit the look of a top contender if this race has to be moved to the main track and like to see the effort he showed up with in his latest outing when dropped in with maiden claimers for the first time; Davis has won with 25 of 89 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Egolyan

His most recent race was one of his better performances but he's going to need an effort that is much sharper than that one to get the job done in this spot; late running type has the look of an outsider.

Big Sam

Two of his three starts over turf look good in comparison to what today's rivals have shown to be capable of but this colt is a late running type who might need to see some pieces fall into place to get over the top through the stretch.

Solo Approach

He's been a pretty consistent performer, but he's seeking his first 1-2 finish in his 13th career start, and his best effort doesn't appear to be quite strong enough to get the job done in here; it's difficult to recommend him for anything more than a spot underneath in the exotics. By Brian Pochman