Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for March 8, 2014

Race 1

Spot Play

TRUSTED CHOICE (#7, 3-1) returned to form with a fast-closing fourth in a slightly tougher race; solid turf form in the claiming ranks; can run these down.-Byron King

Vulnerable Favorite

MR. WILLIAM (#2, 5-2) is dropped in class and looks like one of the classiest runners in the field, but he has faded in two prior tests around two turns on the grass; seemingly better as a turf sprinter. -Byron King

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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C J'S AWESOME (#5, 6-1) may be overlooked here, stretching out despite stopping on a clear lead in his bow, but he apparently bled there; also, that was a fairly deep field, and the fact that he was 5/2 suggests he's better than he showed there. -Kenny Peck

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Race 8

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SOLE TRAIN (#1, 20-1): Flying Zee homebred draws favorably with underrated jock and barn as one of a handful of viable contenders in one of those typical wide-open MSW turf routes offered regularly here. Serpe has really put the hammer down on him in the morning, with 5 works since that last decent try over the course; can sit, sit, sit a nice trip before making his presence felt in a big way. – Marty McGee

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Race 9

Gulfstream Park Handicap by Kenny Peck

Just like many cheaper races, this extremely deep edition of the Gulfstream Park Handicap seems to hinge on pace. How one plays it depends greatly on reading the likely trip for FALLING SKY (#4), one of the main speeds in the field. He ran well for 2nd two back at this track and distance, albeit against lesser, and he could still be on the improve after a career-best effort last time in the Gulfstream Park Sprint.

The main problem for FALLING SKY -- the close 2nd choice on the Morning Line at 3-1 -- seems to be SR. QUISQUEYANO. Like FALLING SKY, SR. QUISQUEYANO appears to be a one-dimensional speed, as he has not shown that he's wild about passing horses when going long. He figures to be involved early -- especially given the expected race flow, but also because he's at his best when on the lead -- and that could mean a duel with FALLING SKY.

That scenario, of course, favors the closers, including Morning Line favorite PALACE MALICE (#8). Unseen since a relatively tough trip in the Breeders' Cup, the 2013 Belmont Stakes winner would certainly benefit from a quick, contested pace, and his most recent Beyers are clearly good enough to win this. The main problem with PALACE MALICE -- aside from the short price -- is that he does seem to be at his best going longer.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY (#7) makes his first start since pulling up down the backstretch in his showdown with Verrazano in the Pegasus at Monmouth last year but he has been training well. His tactical speed should mean he's in an ideal spot behind the aforementioned speeds and he does seem very well suited to this one-turn mile distance. He is proven over this track, and this in fact does seem to be his favorite strip. While he may or may not be cranked up to win in his first start coming back from his pelvic injury, ITSMYLUCKYDAY could fall into a victory if the race sets up as expected.

One horse to consider at a square price is GOLDEN TICKET (#2). This seems to be the right distance for him, and he's another who not only has Beyers good enough to win it, but he also fits the race flow.

Spot Play

ITSMYLUCKYDAY (#7, 7-2): With Falling Sky ready to bounce to the moon, and Palace Malice more adept at longer distances, maybe there’ll be some value to be had with this talented colt whose profile is very much one of a miler. Been burning up the PmM surface in the mornings, and should be able to get a nifty stalk-and-see trip from the outer when eager to get back into action. Big fan of a colt who might well have a big year ahead of him. – Marty McGee

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Race 10

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Race 11

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