Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for March 29, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Spot Play

KAIGUN (#6, 4-1) 4yo has shown steady improvement in his four career turf starts, the last one scoring wire to wire; versatile gelding will likely come from off the pace today. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 3

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Race 4

Rampart Stakes by Michael Hammersly

They thought enough of her last year to try her against the boys in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. OK, so she’s not Rags to Riches but this is still a quality, quality filly. After a busy spring they put her away and she worked very nicely this winter. They brought her back in a sprint here March 8 and she fizzled as the heavy favorite, but that was the first time in her life she’d sprinted, so that’s not her game. Maybe that run should be best viewed as a sharp 7-furlong workout. If it wasn’t a race and you saw that kind of 7-furlong work time-wise you’d say she’s locked and loaded.

Not only is it a great sign trainer Todd Pletcher brings her back fairly quickly, but surely the move back to routing plays to her strength. She didn’t run terribly in that sprint, either; she ran like a horse who needed the race. Well, she’s had her race, has a strong work since and with none of the division heavyheads lined up against her she can move forward and prove very tough to handle. And maybe that sprint loss will scare some potential suitors away, keeping her price palatable, say in the 5-2 range.

Another reason her price may still playable is the presence of in-form DEVIL’S CAVE, who figures to be favored. She’s likely never faced anyone like UNLIMITED BUDGET but unlike that rival she comes here with recency, sharp current form and proven ability over this track. It may be enough to make her a significant favorite over ‘BUDGET, possibly in the 7-5 range.

She has eight top-2 finishes in her last nine starts. That includes two victories in four starts here. She took a state-bred stakes Dec. 29, was second in the Sunshine Millions Distaff here Jan. 18 and then a dazzling winner (set a track mark) in the Grade 2 Sabin here Feb. 16. Of course, in the Sabin she dictated the pace. But she’s no need-the-lead type as two of her four wins were from off the pace (though both were sprints).

The trouble for ‘BUDGET and the others is that again there isn’t much speed signed up here to hinder DEVIL’S CAVE early. TRIPLE ARCH has speed, yes, but try as she might she was unable to keep pace with ‘CAVE in the Sabin. MOLLY MORGAN has shown speed at times but there’s no reason for them to send her hard to help the others. Her best chance is likely to stalk so it’s hard to envision ‘MOLLY’ as the one who hounds DEVIL’S CAVE.

In other words, it may well be déjà vu all over again, that DEVIL’S CAVE sends, clears and leads them on a merry chase. The good news for the UNLIMITED BUDGET backers is that she has shown speed before – one of her wins came wire to wire and she was chasing a :44 and change half-mile split in that March 8 comeback sprint. So it may well fall to her to do her own heavy lifting, that she’ll have to be close enough to DEVIL’S CAVE to pressure her and that when she pounces her class can tell the tale.

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Race 5

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Race 6

Gulfstream Oaks by Marty McGee

Just on general principle, this seems like the right kind of spot to take a stand against the (presumed) favorite, that being the TAP filly, In Tune (#6, 2-1), who makes her stakes debut as the M/L choice versus some fillies with more seasoning. Yes, she’s been fairly impressive in both starts, but it’ll take a best-yet effort to turn back all these, and we’ll be skeptical as we take a different approach.

Let’s go to the far outside with The Chief and his on-the-improve Distorted Humor filly, House Rules (#8), who figures to get a nifty stalk-and-see trip on the stretchout. Let’s tie her up in some vertical plays with a couple of other fringe horses, America (#1) and Whomping Willow (#5) while knowingly taking a calculated risk that In Tune just won’t pass her first major test.

Live Longshot

CAMILLE CLAUDEL (#3, 8-1) just ran second to likely favorite In Tune in an allowance that served as a prep for this race; low-profile Maryland connections will result in this one being a fat price. – Byron King

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Race 7

Live Longshot

BLARP (#12, 8-1) returns to preferred turf after showing no fondness for the main track; gets the worst of the draw so demand near listed price. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 8

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Race 9

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Race 10

Orchid Stakes by Ron Gierkink

It would be surprising if VIVA RAFAELA isn’t on a clear lead in this 12-furlong marathon, and she could make all the running, regardless of the course condition.

VIVA RAFAELA shook loose up front in the 11-furlong The Very One Stakes at Gulfstream Feb. 15, but appeared to lose a little momentum when two geese got in her way on the second turn. She stayed on well until deep stretch, but got caught on the wire for second while ending up just a length and a quarter behind the sharp winner INIMITABLE ROMANEE.

VIVA RAFAELA has never run this far, but is capable of staying the trip at a square price if things go her way. There’s rain in the forecast, and she won the Group 1 Brazilian Oaks over a course labeled soft in 2012. She also prevailed over good ground in an optional event at Gulfstream in November. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Orchid four times.

Use INIMITABLE ROMANEE underneath in the exacta. She raced three-wide most of the way in a stalking position in The Very One, before kicking in strongly through the lane. The pace she set en route to a victory two back in the Grade 3 Long Island at Aqueduct was pedestrian, so it seems unlikely that she’ll challenge for the early honors here.

Other prospects for the bottom of vertical wagers are AIGUE MARINE, ANJAZ and ANTONIA AUTUMN, who is competing beyond nine furlongs for the first time with ample stamina in her bloodlines.

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Race 11

Appleton Stakes by Byron King

MR. ONLINE, who raced for $25,000 last summer at Parx, has blossomed into a stakes-winning turf miler this winter at Gulfstream. Although naturally speedy, he has shown that he is a horse capable of being rated if needed, which he showed in winning a race two starts ago; admire his consistency. TETRADRACHM gave the classy Summer Front a brief scare in the Fort Lauderdale in January when second to him, before coming back and finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf; slight cutback in distance should be to his benefit. SALTO rallied to be third recently in the Canadian Turf at this mile distance, finishing 1 ¾ lengths behind the top choice; well drawn in post two and should get a favorable stalking trip under leading rider Javier Castellano.

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Race 12

Skip Away Stakes by Ron Gierkink

Trainer Ken McPeek, who has been mired in a slump at the current Gulfstream meet, could have a sneaky-good longshot here with WAR DANCER, a late-running turf expert.

WAR DANCER’s dirt form isn’t as bad as his record on that surface would indicate. In last year’s Grade 1 Travers, he made up some ground on the outside from the back of the pack to finish six lengths behind the victorious future champion Will Take Charge, earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the slow-paced contest. WAR DANCER is making his second start following a layoff, a 20 percent angle for McPeek. If the field remains intact, he should have ample speed to run at in the Skip Away (GRAND TITO and CSABA are also entered in Saturday’s Appleton, in which CSABA is an MTO). Downgrade WAR DANCER’s chances if the track is favoring runners who are forwardly placed early.

CSABA is a viable contender, even though he’s questionable going the mile and three-sixteenth distance. The steady 5-year-old is also switching from turf/dirt for his second start off the bench, and has been facing the likes of Lea, Jackson Bend and River Seven. His tactical speed is one of his most effective weapons.

Other possibilities include MICROMANAGE, who’s adding blinkers; and NORUMBEGA, who has been idle since running a distant second to the good Romansh in the Nov. 2 Discovery. Romansh eventually won another Grade 3 stakes at Aqueduct, the Excelsior.

Vulnerable Favorite

NORUMBEGA (#9, 3-1) was made the favorite seemingly by default in a weak renewal of the Skip Away; has shown promise at times, but is unraced this year, putting him at a fitness disadvantage. – Byron King

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Race 13

Pan American Stakes by Marty McGee

Let’s start off by noting that Bill Mott sent Amira’s Prince (#7) to Fair Grounds for the Muniz and will scratch from this spot; all M/L prices should be scaled down accordingly.

There are still some attractive options left – and that’s just in the Mott barn. Slumber (#1) and Newsdad (#10) both bring interesting form to this turf marathon, and you could probably do a lot worse than throwing both into a spread-out vertical mix and seeing what happens.

Assuming Joe’s Blazing Aaron starts as an outclassed longshot with the purpose of setting a realistic pace for his Ramsey/Maker stablemate, Admiral Kitten (#5), look for both of the Mott horses to come running late. Let’s tie them up with Admiral Kitten, the obvious class of the race and deserving favorite, while also sprinkling in some fringe players in some super part-wheels or boxes, those being Vertiformer (#2) and Suntracer (#4).

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Race 14

Florida Derby by Byron King

CAIRO PRINCE, a nose away from being unbeaten in four starts, galloped in the Holy Bull in his only race over this track, leaving horses such as eventual Risen Star winner Intense Holiday in his wake; was freshened by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after that race, no doubt the best of his career, leaving him less susceptible to regression; sits the perfect stalking trip. Little obviously separates GENERAL A ROD and WILDCAT RED, who were heads apart in the Fountain of Youth and Gulfstream Derby this winter. Although WILDCAT RED edged GENERAL A ROD most recently in the Fountain of Youth, ‘RED is the more imposing horse and his pedigree is filled with more stamina; so he he is the second selection over the hard-trying WILDCAT RED.

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