Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for March 1, 2014

Race 1

Spot Play

MY CAT LILY (#8, 5-2): Don’t really like starting off the day in such chalky fashion, but this Kitten’s Joy mare really caught the eye with her sustained debut run and has been on the personal watch-for list ever since that Feb. 8 race, which happened to come up very tough for the level. With that one very useful race under her and the confident-riding Paco having clear sailing from the outer post, look for her to loom a race-long threat and get the afternoon off to a solid beginning. – Marty McGee

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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NAUSET BEACH (#9, 5-1) ran well off the bench to be second in a quick race, and seems a candidate to move forward in his second start off a layoff; past starts in claiming races should keep his odds respectable. – Byron King

Vulnerable Favorite

POINT HOPE (#8, 3-1) turned in a good effort in his final start at 2 to be fourth in a maiden race at Belmont, but hasn’t raced September and might be at a fitness disadvantage; likely overbet with blinkers-on and first-time Lasix. – Byron King

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Race 7

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Not wild about the rail draw for ONE TANGO CHARLIE (#1, 6-1) but he has been training very well toward his local bow; given a clean break he looms tough here. - Kenny Peck

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Race 8

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Race 9

Swale Stakes by Kenny Peck

Lots of horse racing fans are anticipating Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream, to witness the respective returns of HAVANA (#1) and NO NAY NEVER (#3). Those looking for races with betting values, however, will likely look elsewhere.

That's because these two favorites do look very tough, and it should be one or the other. I do feel it will be NO NAY NEVER, as he's been a personal favorite since his exceptionally sharp debut score, but HAVANA can certainly win, of course, especially if the former isn't ready off the layoff, and upon shipping from Europe. As for the others...it looks like an uphill climb.

None of them has posted a Beyer over 85, and HAVANA's "worst" figure to date is an 86, earned in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. NO NAY NEVER doesn't have an official Beyer -- his debut was his only U. S. start thus far, and figures are not computed for 2-year-olds going 4 1/2 furlongs -- but if you were to apply the sprint variant from that day to his raw figure he would have earned a 96. Both have speed but can also pass horses, making them unlikely to fall victim to race flow, and though they're both back from layoffs they hail from barns which win at high rates with absentees.

So which one? If I were genuinely able to get 2-1 on NO NAY NEVER I'd take it, but I'm expecting he and HAVANA to be more like 6/5 and 7/5, one way or the other. I won't likely be betting but I will be watching with interest, as these are two extraordinary horses.

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Race 10

Palm Beach Stakes by Marty McGee

Wow, what a great betting race, huh? Just soooo many possibilities here. Most intrigued by the Dania Beach romper, Mr Speaker (#10), who returns after the failed try on dirt while adding first Lasix for Shug … if there are any favorites in here, he’d have to be one.

Otherwise, this looks like a textbook shotgun-approach race, with a handful of live longshots deserving attention in both the horizontal and vertical plays. Have to summarily dismiss one of the Chad runners, Storming Inti (#1), partly because of his odds (3-1 M/L fave), partly as a front-runner who just won’t be getting away with anything ease, and partly on general principle – and as an added bonus, Chad seems to have a real sleeper in here in the French colt, Pleuven (#4), who found his best stride too late in his stateside debut in December.

That said, let’s also throw in some longer-priced horses in with decent chances and make up some trifecta and superfecta boxes with Mr Speaker and Pleuven. Those price plays include Morning Calm (#6), Smart Cover (#7), Can’thelpbelieving (#11), and Cabo Cat (#12). Tie them up, roll them up, link them up, scatter-shot them … use a little imagination, depending on the size of your bankroll, and most of all, get a little lucky.

Spot Play

MORNING CALM (#6, 20-1): One could do much worse than taking a flyer on a Michelle Nihei price horse such as this one in an exceedingly wide-open renewal of the Palm Beach. This guy made a sensational last-to-first run in winning his debut, then acquitted himself nobly in his first crack vs. winners and actually deserves a shot at this stakes brand. In any case, we’ve all seen far worse-looking 20-1 shots before. – Marty McGee

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Race 11

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