Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for January 25, 2014
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Race 2 |
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Spot PlayHURRICANE TURN (#7, 4-1) has some nice works showing for his debut, and the presence of ENDOWMENT MANAGER should ensure value despite the fact that that rival is likely to face pressure from LOVEFINDSAWAY, if not others as well. -Kenny Peck
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Race 6 |
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Race 7 |
Forward Gal Stakes by Marcus HershTodd Pletcher has a surprisingly salty $2.46 win ROI in graded stakes races, but ONLYFORYOU is not going to help that number much, even with a victory. She’s 7-5 on the morning line and could easily go off as an odds-on favorite. I’m not a fan of Onlyforyou. She did improve from her debut at Aqueduct to her N1X allowance win at Gulfstream, and showed a different off-the-pace dimension in her second start. But both trips were ideal, and the competition less than fierce in either spot. Her stable-mate Sweet Whiskey’s win in the Old Hat struck me as significantly superior to either of Onlyforyou’s performances, and with the Forward Gal coming up just 21 days after that race (Question: Why would GP do that?) one has to think the connections saw a chance to slot this filly in, hope for a soft spot, & pick up a G2 win with a filly who might not be close to elite. Well, on paper, at least: Mission accomplished. I would very much like to oppose Onlyforyou on top, but that would require a suitably appealing alternative, and all I can find among the other quintet are stabs. Second-choice AURELIA’S BELLE did nothing to catch the eye in the Old Hat and would have been third but for an unfortunate deep-stretch breakdown. She worked back sharply and could have moderate upside. Unbridled Forever might be the top 3-year-old route filly in the country (remains to be seen) and credit to rail-drawn RESISTIVITY for running second to her two back at Churchill. But she was dusted in that race, and looked mediocre at best winning a maiden race over the local strip last out. Don’t like her at all. If it came down to it, were I forced to play the race on its own, I supposed I’d try to partner Onlyforyou with one of the three outside-drawn fillies -- STATELY DEFENCE, MY DEAR REGINA, AND FLASH ENCOUNTER – in exactas and trifectas, but there does not appear to be a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.
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Race 8 |
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Race 9 |
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Race 10 |
Holy Bull Stakes by Byron KingSaturday’s Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream drew a field almost worthy of a Florida Derby, with at least six or seven legitimate Kentucky Derby prospects among its 11-horse lineup. A narrow edge goes to CAIRO PRINCE, who won his first two starts, including the Nashua, before finishing second, beaten a nose to Honor Code in a slow-paced Remsen after idling upon making the lead and being ridden overconfidently by jockey Luis Saez. He appears well drawn in a position to stalk the leaders and power past on the outside – just the style he has prefers. ALMOST FAMOUS dominated in a first-level allowance around two turns at Churchill in November, quickly overcoming a tardy start and leading at every call. Off that powerhouse performance he was made the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill, only to be scratched due to an abscess in a hind foot; well regarded by his connections. Late-running FINANCIAL MOGUL comes off his best effort in four race, a runner-up finish behind CAIRO PRINCE in the Nashua – a race in which he finished in front of third-place Noble Moon, subsequent winner of the Jerome this winter in New York. ‘MOGUL has been away the longest of any horse in the field, potentially putting him at a bit of a fitness disadvantage. Beyond the top three, others that warrant consideration, particularly for use on the bottom of the exotics, include WICKED STRONG, COUP DE GRACE, MR SPEAKER, and CONQUEST TITAN.
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Race 11 |
Spot PlayBOLD STREET CAT (#1, 4-1) is returned to her best surface on turf after having to race in the slop last time in a race rained off the grass; looks as good as othes in here and picks up Castellano. – Byron King
Vulnerable FavoriteCHARADE (#1, 3-1) fits on form and class but hasn’t started since September and might not be ready for her absolute best; a contender but likely overbet in a wide-open race. – Byron King Closer Looks >> |