Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for January 11, 2014
Race 1 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 3 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 4 |
Spot PlayATHENS (#10, 12-1): This race looks like one of those Jan. 3yo MSWs in which a half-dozen or so are eligible to emerge as legit threats to go on and do well down the road, including both of the TAP firsters and another handful of talented young’ns. This classics-bred colt evidently has been doing some terrific work in the relative obscurity of Payson for HOF trainer and draws favorably toward the outer when getting standout jock; connections surely would like to see him live up to all that promise right away here. – Marty McGee
Closer Looks >> |
Race 5 |
Spot PlayRUNKLE (#2, 4-1) was well off the pace last time but he does have some speed, and should be expected to be more involved in the early going today in his first start off the claim. -Kenny Peck
Closer Looks >> |
Race 6 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 7 |
Spot PlayTaking a shot with CHEE (#5, 8-1), who may appreciate the move to two turns, given the pedigree; trainer Jimmy Toner has won with two of last three starts making their 2nd starts off long layoffs. -Kenny Peck
Closer Looks >> |
Race 8 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 9 |
Fort Lauderdale Stakes by Byron KingSUMMER FRONT is at the top of his game again after going off form a bit toward the second half of his 3-year-old campaign in 2012. Last year at 4, he won two of five starts, but it was a losing effort in the Grade 2 Citation Nov. 29 that really caught the eye. Reserved off a slow pace, he quickened when asked on the turn and battling the length of the stretch with the classy Silentio, ultimately missing by an nose in a tight photo that could have gone either way in a head-bobbing finish. Seven for 12 on turf, he is a horse perfectly suited to the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Fort Lauderdale. And he has also performed well on the Gulfstream Park turf course, with a win and a third in two local starts. He fires on firm and good courses, and rates on top unless the grass comes up soft or yielding. Intriguing at his morning line of 8-1 is SLUMBER, though that seems overly generous. Expect him to get bet down from that. Fourth in the Grade 1 Turf Classic, he weakened to sixth as the favorite in the Canadian International on yielding ground. Perhaps that race can be excused due to the going. He, like Summer Front, appears to perform best on good or firm turf. Use him with the top choice in the exotics. TETRADRACHM has run Beyer Speed Figures of 96 or 97 in three of his last four starts, with the exception coming when he caught yielding turf at Saratoga. He is fast and has been competitive in graded stakes. Despite those good numbers, he did lose as the favorite in his latest – finishing second in the Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder Dec. 7. He can also be even paced at times. He seems best used on the bottom of the gimmicks.
Closer Looks >> |
Race 10 |
Hal's Hope Stakes by Kenny Peck
The Grade 3, $100,000 Hal's Hope drew a deep field, but one that's not necessarily long on pace. And that's, of course, an important consideration when handicapping this interesting race. The pace scenario should obviously work to the advantage of a horse like CSABA, who draws inside and always runs well in these one-turn miles. He's cross-entered in the 9th race, the Fort Lauderdale, but as a Main Track Only entrant he'll only be considered for that race if if comes off the grass. His running style and Beyers make him a prime contender for this Hal's Hope, and he's tough to leave off any type of ticket for this race. But SIMMSTOWN, who drew the rail, will offer more value. He's 10-1 on the Morning Line, and he is in good form for this race, coming off a sharp sprint score at Calder. He's two-for-two at this distance, both victories coming at this track, and given his post and the expected race flow he does figure to hold a tactical edge over most of these. This is his 2nd start off the short layoff and trainer Martin Wolfson wins at a very high rate with such runners. NIKKI'S SANDCASTLE, like SIMMSTOWN cross-entered in the Fort Lauderdale, will likely run in the latter race unless the grass course comes up soft, according to trainer David Kassen, who spoke to DRF's Mike Welsch. He's more accomplished on the turf than the main track but he has run well on dirt in the past, and his ability to stay close should give him an edge on the closers. NECK 'N NECK is likely better than he showed in his return but this could be a tough spot for him to show it, unless he's able to stay close to the pace. He's at his best when he comes from off the pace, and though he has effectively stalked the pace and won in the past, those races were when he went slightly longer than this. As far as betting: I'll play SIMMSTOWN to win at 8-1 or higher, and I'll use him in exactas on top and bottom with CSABA. I'll also use NIKKI'S SANDCASTLE, though a bit more defensively.
Spot PlaySIMMSTOWN (#1, 10-1) has shown dramatic improvement since joining the Marty Wolfson barn and comes off a fast stakes victory at Calder; is proven over the Gulfstream track and loves racing a one-turn mile. – Byron King CSABA (#2, 3-1) is a two-time winner at Gulfsteam, but his flashiest performances have typically come at Calder; he did win this race last year, but with a perfect trip and just narrowly. – Byron King
Closer Looks >> |
Race 11 |
Spot PlayBIG JOHN B (#3, 6-1) had no shot when last seen, stuck behind an incredibly slow half mile, but he was very consistent in his previous tries; likely to run back to his better races here if he gets an honest race flow. -Kenny Peck Spot PlayTWIGAZURI STRAIT (#6, 4-1): There could be value scattered throughout the toteboard for this Sunday finale, given that Red Vine is likely to be absolutely pounded once again, but don’t put it past Nihei and the underrated Sanchez to pull the upset here. 5yo gelding has performed well over the local course and stands to benefit in a big way from his 12/21 return; a bit more follow-through could make for a nice end to the day. – Marty McGee
Closer Looks >> |