Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for February 9, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Hurricane Bertie Stakes by Kenny Peck

The Grade 3, $200,000 Hurricane Bertie will mark the final career race for the brilliant GROUPIE DOLL (#1), who, despite what the 6/5 Morning Line might indicate, will be odds-on to post her 12 win in 23 career starts.

Obviously, GROUPIE DOLL is going to be very difficult to beat. She's proven at the track and distance, and she's handled better than this on multiple occasions in the past. She has tactical speed and an inside post, which should translate to a favorable trip, as there are a couple of one-dimensional speeds to her outside, and she figures to find a good spot behind those runners. She has her fans, and they will be looking for GROUPIE DOLL to finish her career on the racetrack on a winning note.

This is a gambling game, however, and while GROUPIE DOLL is the most likely winner she'll offer no value at all. Those looking for holes in her game will point to the fact that her worst two recent Beyers have come when she's come back from layoffs. That may well be grasping at straws, but if the alternative is backing a 2/5 shot it's worth reaching a bit. I came up with WILDCAT LILY (#7), who has been training fairly well toward her first start since September. She has speed but can rate a bit, and she could get first run at likely pacesetters HEART STEALER (#6) and FIVE STAR MOMMA (#5). She will need to run her best race in terms of Beyers, and she will simply not beat GROUPIE DOLL if that champion sprinter runs to her best efforts, but she should be in the neighborhood of 6-1 or 8-1, at least, and that might make it worthwhile to bet her.

HEART STEALER is interesting, though she would have to be better than the ML quote of 3-1 to warrant a play against GROUPIE DOLL. She was a new horse upon returning from the layoff back in October, and if she can take another step forward in her first start in about two months she might be good enough, with the right kind of trip.

THE PLAY: Minor win bet on WILDCAT LILY, with an exacta punch over GROUPIE DOLL, smaller the other other way. Will also include HEART STEALER with WILDCAT LILY in multi-race exotics.

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

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Race 9

Analysis by Dan Illman

Sunday’s ninth race at Gulfstream Park, the first leg of the late Pick 4, is one of those curious maiden turf routes often found over the winter. The usual gang is all here with well-bred first-time starters from top barns, underachievers with speed figures good enough to win, and lightly-raced performers that have yet to reach their full potential.

From a Pick 4 perspective, it is probably best to utilize the “Avoid One” strategy. Instead of concentrating on a “single,” the horseplayer might be well-served to spread and avert being knocked out of the sequence. For handicappers with a limited budget, however, covering a wide swath of contenders may not be feasible. Those brave enough to key might gravitate to CLOSER TO YOU (#10), a debut performer for trainer Christophe Clement. Playing first-time starters in turf routes is often a risky proposition, especially at the daunting distance of nine furlongs. But, in a race where the experienced fillies don’t look like future stars, it could be the spot for a fresh face.

Closer to You has the three things that handicappers should look for in a first-time starter. She is well-bred, well-connected, and shows strong morning workouts.

Her sire, Smart Strike, connects with 15% of all older debut runners, has a 12% strike rate with first-time turf performers, and went 11-56 (20%, $3.54 ROI) with all first-time starters in 2013 (seven of those winners came over turf). Smart Strike’s son, English Channel, won the Breeders’ Cup Turf and has become a strong grass sire in his own right.

Closer to You’s dam, You, never raced on turf, but she won her debut, four Grade 1’s, and over $2M on the main track. You has also been a prolific broodmare. From four foals to race, she has produced Grade 2 dirt winner You and I Forever, stakes-winning dirt performer Causeway’s Kin, and listed stakes-placed French turf runner It’s So You.

Clement has fantastic numbers with debut runners. Here are some stats from Formulator: Past 5 Years, Turf, First-Time Starters 43-208 (21%, $2.67 ROI)

Utilizing the trainer pattern tool to get more specific, we find this nugget: Past 5 Years, Turf, 3-year-olds, First-Time Starters, Routes, Maiden Special Weight, Today’s Track: 6-26 (23% wins, 65% in the money), $5.43 ROI

Two of those local winners came at nine furlongs. Both paid over $25 to win. Clicking on the most recent workout in Formulator, we find that Closer to You shared the February 1 bullet drill over four furlongs at Payson Park with Long Face. Long Face is a 5-year-old mare trained by Clement that is graded stakes-placed on turf (we can find Long Face’s information by clicking on Clement’s name in the Formulator past performances). We can’t be certain off the cold dope, but one may make the assumption that Long Face and Closer to You worked in company that morning.

Who does Closer to You (#6) have to beat on Sunday afternoon? The likely favorite, Seeking Her Glory, is a Todd Pletcher-trained filly that has already failed on five occasions while losing ground from the stretch call to the wire in every start. She can certainly win and is worth a backup play on Pick 4 tickets, but looms an underlay at 5-2 or 3-1 on the win end.

Overtone (#13) and Storm Now (#12) both recently suffered tough trips. The former made a premature four wide bid to command over the Woodbine polytrack before understandably tiring late, and her dam excelled on turf. Storm Now broke slowly and was checked hard turning for home in her local debut on January 10. Both must overcome difficult outside post positions in a race devoid of speed.

Sward (#7) makes her career debut for Bill Mott and she is a half-sister to Lea, a Donn Handicap entrant that has won on dirt, turf and polytrack. While Sward certainly has the pedigree to prevail, Formulator smoked out two interesting statistics for Mott:

Past 5 Years, Turf, First-Time Starters: 9-185 (5%, $1.36 ROI)

Past 5 Years, Turf, 3-year-olds, First-Time Starter, Routes, Maiden Special Weight, Today’s Track: 0-36 (only 4 in the money)

Aldara (#2) failed to parlay a perfect ground-saving, pace-tracking trip into a top three finish on January 10. Salonsun (#3), Dance Craze (#4), Fancy Ribbons (#5), and Ca Va (#11) all have strong turf bloodlines. None of them have cracked the trifecta from seven combined starts, but certainly are eligible to improve. Temper Too (#8) and Gina’s Kitten (#9) both earned strong figures in a Keeneland maiden race in October, but returned to bomb at short prices. Perhaps it’s time to doubt that particular Keeneland Beyer. Russian Night (#1) didn’t have the easiest trip in the world in her turf debut, but that race was dominated by longer-priced horses and we still must question her overall quality.

In this particular Pick 4 sequence, we have the advantage of watching the tote board for clues about these inexperienced horses. While it may still be best to spread in this opening leg, I will use a healthy helping of Closer to You and will bet her to win at odds of 4-1 or greater.

Spot Play

SWARD (#7, 6-1) half sister to Lea makes debut here in two turn turf affair under Velazquez, who have been a deadly combo in recent years. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 10

Spot Play

SAPPHIRE BLUE (#10, 4-1) comes off a good second in the slop in a race taken off the turf at Fair Grounds, and is now shipped to Gulfstream, where races more dependably stay on the grass; she broke her maiden on the grass at Belmont last fall and starts for a winning trainer/jockey combo. – Byron King

Vulnerable Favorite

TIE DYE (#3, 3-1) is a candidate to hit the board but a play against in the win pool, having just a 1 for 14 record; this filly has been in position to win numerous races, only to come up empty late. – Byron King

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Race 11

Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap by Byron King

SUMMER FRONT looks poised to pick up his first Grade 1 victory in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, and a deserving accomplishment it would be for a horse that has won 8 of 13 on turf. Always a skilled grass horse, he has performed at a particularly high level since last summer – with his only poor effort over that stretch coming in the Shadwell Turf Mile, a race moved to the Polytrack and run over puddles in the driving rain. He also benefits in this race by catching three of his chief rivals – IMAGINING, AMIRA’S PRINCE, and BOISTEROUS returning from layoffs. All of those runners have the potential to challenge if they return at close to their best, but of course, that is not assured after time on the sidelines. Prefer IMAGINING among the comebackers – he closed out 2013 with a pair of stakes wins and has only been away since mid-November. AMIRA’S PRINCE, in contrast, hasn’t run for over 10 months after winning the Mervin Muniz on March 30 of last year. He still commands respect, returning for a skilled layoff barn and being 4 for 4 since being imported to the United States.

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Race 12

Donn Handicap by Marcus Hersh

First question: What’s an acceptable price on WILL TAKE CHARGE? He’s offered fair odds in ALL his previous starts, but that kind of value is gone now. He’s 9-5 on the morning line, and one could easily see him going off shorter than that.

And here’s the thing: Will Take Charge might be the best horse in the Donn, but the race probably doesn’t entirely suit him. This is a horse that does his best racing in the homestretch, and – generally speaking – that is the wrong kind of horse for a Gulfstream dirt track that regularly plays like a conveyor belt. It would be one thing if the Donn were brimming with pace factors that virtually assured fast early and middle fractions to soften anyone on or near the front end, but that does not appear to be the case. Moreover, Will Take Charge is making his first start since a very busy fall campaign during which he peaked from July – November. Maybe that form will simply carry over to this spot, but maybe it will take some time for Will Take Charge to get back to his best again. And do keep in mind a harsh winter has not produced ideal training conditions at Oaklawn Park, where Will Take Charge has been prepped for this start.

So, let’s look at the possible upsetters. I rank them in this order: REVOLUTIONARY, ROMANSH, BOURBON COURAGE, LEA, and UNCAPTURED.

Revolutionary seems highly unlikely to go off at odds as high as his 5-1 morning-line price, and I have some concern he could turn into a value-less second choice. But I’d rate his chances as close to equal to Will Take Charge’s under these circumstances, and thus, for me, he’s a more appealing play. Opinion seemed sharply divided over Revolutionary’s one-turn-mile comeback run on Jan. 11, his first start since the Belmont. Some observers thought he was all out to win by a half-length: I thought he basically breezed to victory in what amounted to a possibly perfect prep. That one-turn race plus two half-mile drills should have Revolutionary sharp enough to show tactical speed and get first run on Will Take Charge. He is almost certainly better at two turns than one, and, given his high-level 3-year-old form, stands a decent chance to pop up with a career-best performance in a race that’s long been his major goal. ROMANSH is somewhat interesting. He was buried twice by Will Take Charge last season, but his 2013 campaign has the look of a horse still putting everything together. That finally appeared to happen – albeit against modest opposition – in the Nov. 2 Discovery, in which Romansh ran a legitimately fast race at the Donn’s nine-furlong trip. He’s well drawn for a pressing or – if no one goes – a pace-setting trip, and is getting 7 pounds from Will Take Charge.

BOURBON COURAGE was a fine second in the 2013 Donn, but the thorny issue is the fact that in three starts after a layoff of almost six months he hasn’t looked like the same horse as before the break. Still, it’s too soon to abandon hope. His one-turn comeback race at Churchill last fall was a mere prep, and his showing in the Clark is underrated: He made up good ground on Will Take Charge and Game On Dude after losing all early position, though one wonders how a horse who early in his career showed blazing sprint speed has started falling so far behind moderate early route paces. His amped-up workouts since a disappointing third in the Dec. 22 Harlan’s Holiday suggest Bourbon Courage’s connections have set about rectifying the lack of positional speed, and a much sharper performance here would come as no surprise.

LEA got a great trip against moderate opposition in the Hal’s Hope, but one can’t fault his performance there nor deny that even at age 5 the horse has upside right now. The Hal’s Hope was Lea’s first race over a dry dirt track, and he might well find this nine-furlong trip within his scope, particularly with a favorable trip on or near a modest pace.

I give UNCAPTURED only the slightest hint of a win chance: If one thinks he prefers a distance longer than one mile, he comes into this race working with a decent two-race pattern from which to move up to a higher performance level. In the 9.5-furlong Prince of Wales he solidly outstayed River Seven, who won the Harlan’s Holiday last out and is a ridiculously low 4-1 (he’ll be double-digit odds) on the Donn morning line.

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