Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for February 22, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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TIGHTLY BRIDLED (#6, 15-1) has only sprinted twice -- once he was off slowly, and the other time he wilted after a race-long duel. One more shot in his first start off the layoff for Zito, who does well with this type. Using him with fast-working firster TIGER TANK (#3, 5-1) who will be tough if he runs to those swift breezes. -Kenny Peck

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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KAIGUN (#11, 4-1) tossing his last, which was an unsuccessful attempt on dirt; previous three on turf were excellent, the most recent of those produced a couple of next out winners and the winner missed a neck in a Grade 3. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 8

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Race 9

Davona Dale Stakes by Marty McGee

As usual, a discussion of this Grade 2 race starts with a guy named Pletcher and how tough his uncoupled favorites, Onlyforyou (#3) and Stopchargingmaria (#8), will be for the other six fillies to overcome.

The thinking here is Stopchargingmaria is the more vulnerable of the pair, given that she’s just now starting out toward the long-range Oaks goal; hasn’t raced in nearly 3 months, and is saddled with the tough outside post; would be more inclined to give Onlyforyou a bigger edge in terms of speed, recency, and post.

That said, who else can seriously challenge? The Darley filly, Penwith (#6), comes well-prepped for this by Kiaran and has been targeted for this precise spot for quite some time. Furthermore, even the Tampa invader Abou (#1) and the Jerkens filly House Rules (#5) rate long-priced chances, given further improvement apiece.

Let’s tie Onlyforyou and Penwith together in some tricks with those price plays while also acknowledging Stopchargingmaria by playing these exacta and trifecta boxes: box 1-3-6, 3-5-6, 3-6-8.

Vulnerable Favorite

First, exactly who or what did STOPCHARGINGMARIA beat last year after being stretched out in those two end-of-year stretchouts in New York? And second, with so many of her opponents here having improved in the nearly 3-month interim, isn’t she likely to be outfooted through the critical early stages of this G2 route when also saddled with the disadvantageous outside post? Surely TAP is thinking long-term with her, so taking a short price on this filly as she takes her first step down that road would seem the wrong move, especially with so many other in-form fillies in against her. – Marty McGee

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Race 10

Canadian Turf by Marty McGee

What a race this one is! A quick once-through of the 12-horse field tells you there is no clear-cut favorite and a bunch of live longshots. Getting a handle on this one and making some dough by catching a gimmick is a very demanding task, but we’ll sure give it a go.

Let’s start by being skeptical of the nominal 3-1 M/L fave, Mr. Online (#1), who clearly has come to peak form but nonetheless gets a major class test today. Quite a few are more stakes-seasoned than him, and moreover, they also may be a little more reliable at this two-turn distance at this level.

That said, let’s focus in on the colt who was all the rage at this time last year: Rydilluc (#3). Regrouped by Contessa, he’s bound to come out running, and we’re thinking this could be his first step on the way to a big year. The M/L of 6-1 probably isn’t attainable, but something in the vicinity is more than acceptable.

Let’s tie him up in exactas and tri’s by using him first and second with a handful of others, all of whom bring a little something to this Canadian table: Fredericksburg (#4), in off big back-to-back tries for Michael Matz; Salto (#6), always there or thereabouts; Bad Debt (#9), whom Rosario sees fit to ride; Guys Reward (#11), perennially underestimated; and Abtaal (#12), a real sleeper off that stateside debut for Shadwell and Kiaran.

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Race 11

Fountain of Youth Stakes by Kenny Peck

On Saturday at Gulfstream Park, a deep, contentious field will contest the Grade 2, $400,000 Besilu Fountain of Youth Stakes, the centerpiece of an excellent 11-race card.

TOP BILLING (#12) is the close second choice at 7-2 on the Morning Line but accepting a short price in a race like this is not normally recommended when the horse in question is clearly facing the best field of his short career, and he'll have to overcome post 11. He has a strong late kick, and there may be enough speed to set up a closer, but while he can certainly win if he runs to his best figures, and no one else steps up big, he doesn't figure to offer enough value.

The speed figures to come from stretch-out sprinter C. ZEE (#7), the quick ALMOST FAMOUS (#8). The former has shown early zip in shorter races and goes long for the first time, making him a likely factor from the start, while the latter is apparently a one-dimensional speed who will try to steal it under any circumstances. If those two hook up, it should benefit the closers and stalkers.

Going through the field, it seems that MEDAL COUNT (#3), CASIGUAPO (#6), OUR CARAVAN (#10) and HESINFRONT (#11) lack the Beyers to win this. Further, EAST HALL (#13) was behind a couple of the top contenders in the Gulfstream Park Derby two back, with no apparent excuse, and now he has the added burden of post 13. BEST PLAN YET (#9) was well beaten in that same race.

The others -- COMMISSIONER (#1), WE MISS ARTIE (#2), WILDCAT RED (#4) and GENERAL A ROD (#5) -- are the top contenders. COMMISSIONER is the Morning Line favorite at 3-1 on the strength of his win in an optional claimer over this track at the start of the year, and he has the added benefit of the rail, no small consideration with the short run to the first turn. But the 91 figure he earned in that victory last time was with the aid of a forward trip on top of some slow fractions, and while he was flattered when TOP BILLING -- the horse he beat by a neck there -- returned to win his next start easily, that runner may have been best, as he closed nicely into those slow fractions. And he has his own hooves full here. I'll take a shot against COMMISSIONER in all pools, on the theory that he doesn't get another ideal set-up.

WILDCAT RED is the wildcard in the Fountain of Youth. If he can rate off the pace and make one run at this distance, he's going to be a handful. His Beyers are on the rise, he's very consistent, he loves to win and he's game as can be. But the only time he went as far as a mile he was head and head on the lead, and he's been close-up in his sprint tries. I like his chances if he can sit just off the expected pacesetters and make one run, but if he's too eager early he could be cooked in a duel.

GENERAL A ROD has won two of three starts, and that debut score does signify that he has more of a rating gear than WILDCAT RED, though he also has the tactical speed to stay close. He has turned in a couple of sharp works since his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby, including that most recent breeze, and he has improved with each start in terms of Beyers. He'll likely win this if he's able to take another step forward.

My top pick, though, is WE MISS ARTIE. He may be overlooked in the wagering a bit, as it does appear that he's at his best when on the turf and on synthetic surfaces. But he has turned in exceptional works since his narrow miss in the Kittens Joy, on the turf, and his effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when against bias and pace, was better than it may appear on paper. He could approach double digits on the board, and that cements the deal.

I'll play WE MISS ARTIE (#2) to win, and use him in an exacta box with WILDCAT RED (#4) and GENERAL A ROD (#5), and also press him on top and on bottom of exactas with both of those two runners.

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Race 12

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