Gulfstream: DRF Plus Handicapping Report for February 15, 2014

Race 1

Spot Play

DEFEND (#5, 6-1) woke up with a second in his latest, earning a quality last-race Beyer of 74, and it came in the slop, a surface on which he previously struggled; prefers fast tracks, and both of his wins have come at Gulfstream. – Byron King

Vulnerable Favorite

BAFFOONERY (#4, 5-2) is dropped in class off the claim by a winning barn but is a horse whose best work has come on synthetic tracks, not dirt; didn’t breeze for over a month after being claimed Dec. 21. – Byron King

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

Live Longshot

PRIVATE RELATIONS (#5, 10-1) is bred for turf and he's been working like he'll come out running in his debut for trainer John Kimmel; looking for him to come out running under Rosario. -Kenny Peck

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Race 7

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Race 8

The Very One Stakes Analysis by Marty McGee

For the 11-furlong distance, there seems to be plenty of pace in this renewal of the The Very One, especially with a few of these fillies and mares returning from layoffs of varying lengths. That may or may not mean a late-kicker will prevail, but it does mean the pace should be honest.

Preferential (#5), off her come-to-hand efforts on the Kentucky circuit, has been ready to run for quite a while now, having been prepped for the G3 La Prevoyante at Crc in late December, only to have the race canceled. The Juddmonte Farms mare has ticked right along on her work schedule, and if she runs her race from just off the pace, she’ll definitely be the one to beat here.

Let’s key her in some vertical plays (i.e., trifectas and supers) with some others who should be able to rally off a pace contested by Inimitable Romanee, Viva Rafaela, and maybe a couple of others when lining up a ticket this way: 5 in the first and second holes with 1, 2, 4, 7. Good luck.

Spot Play

VIVA RAFAELA (#8, 8-1) still don’t think we’ve seen the best of her yet; gets one more chance since she’s stretching out to 1m 3/8 and her career best was a Group 1 win at 1m ¼ in Brazil. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 9

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Race 10

Mac Diarmida Stakes by Byron King

TWILIGHT ECLIPSE won the off-the-turf McKnight by 7 lengths after a sixth in the Breeder's Cup Turf in which he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths. He is one of the top turf marathoners in the country when he catches a firm turf course - conditions expected Saturday. He won the Pan American here last year on rock-hard Gulfstream course in world record time for 1 ½ miles, 2:22.63. SLUMBER could must only a belated rally in the Fort Lauderdale Jan. 11, finishing fourth, beaten four lengths, but has the potential to move forward in his second race of the year; he ran well to be a close fourth in the Grade 1 Turf Classic last September when going 1 1/2 miles. Still, one gets the impression looking at his form that his best distance is 1 ¼ miles. So the three turns of this 1 3/8-mile race may result in regression. SUNTRACER never fired in the off-the-turf McKnight but is a consistent performer on the grass and should rebound with a quality effort; doesn't have a lick of early speed and seems more likely to rally for a minor award than to win. As for the others, AMEN KITTEN has a nice turf resume but is merely a two-time winner from 16 starts despite facing mostly 3-year-old opposition last year. ALPHA is the wild card, being untested on turf but a multiple grade 1 winner. He should get the clear early lead he craves, but not a supporter of first-time turf runners competing in such demanding races as this one.

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