Gulfstream: Closer Looks for March 26, 2014

Race 1

Rachel's Ticket

Chronic maiden has only one decent performance to her name and that was at Calder; doubt that she can suddenly turn things around until she returns to that venue; pass until further notice.

Formal Quality

Returns to the six-furlong setting and that fact, combined with a huge weight shift today, can perhaps enable her to earn a share; she has some prompting speed in her favor but still has much work to do.

Wildgirl Nikki

Late foal should move forward in her 4-year-old debut as she ran into an above average field for this low price level in November; her sire won a G1 and 570K; the dam was without victory in 4 attempts; among the winning siblings is 141K earner Dr. Nicole.

Broadway Secret

Has a better first gear than most of these and needs to slow down the early fractions as much as possible; if she can dissuade Hot Cotton in the opening strides today, she can last much longer than most bettors anticipate.

Hot Cotton

Claimed twice already, she was a game clear-cut second in her latest run while going to post as the 6 to 5 favorite; the key to this race's outcome is based on whether or not she gets into a pace war with the previous runner; obvious true contender regardless.

I Wish I Wish

A fair showing first time out and she could be ideally situated today behind battling leaders; her sire was a G3 winner who banked 561K; the dam won 14 of 39 attempts and 384K; winning siblings include 43K earner Jody's Case.

Think Verde

Could not keep pace with Broadway Secret 2 weeks ago and is unlikely to turn the tables; could improve over a wet-fast track where she showed much better early speed in the race 3 back; generous odds assured.

Jill's Reflection

This lass has earned several checks and perhaps the cutback in distance can help her cause; if there is a serious pace meltdown today, she should inherit a share and is worthy of some trifecta inclusion based on that possibility.-Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Wild Conceits

Draws the fence for the rise back to this level for his first off the claim by an outfit that's had some luck with this type; he's experienced from inside draws and maybe that helps him secure a decent spot early today, but though he had some trouble he was defeated rather handily last time by a couple of rivals he'll catch again in this spot.

Right On Course

Speedy gelding cuts back a half panel for his second back from the brief freshening after failing to hold off one of today's foes when in for a tag last time; quick breaker should benefit from the move to this starting slot and he does draw well inside what appear to be his main pace foes today; they'll have to run him down to win.

Hearty Congrats

Cuts back to sprint in his first crack off the claim by an outfit that excels with this type right back; like the way he tracked and fired on the stretchout, but he was in against an overmatched bunch in that career best Beyer effort; maybe he has a little more to offer in the lane at this trip, but he does catch a quicker set in this spot.

No Fruit Degroote

He's in for the optional tag for the initial time while making his second start back from nearly a full half year on the shelf; colt was caught in a wide spot in the comebacker, but he really didn't bring very much to the table in that one; maybe he finds this bunch easier and he does have a right to move forward.

Sweepin Romance

He's offered back for half of what this outfit paid for him just over 6 weeks ago when steadily retreating from a wide spot on the cut back to this trip; colt has earned several minor awards and he is capable of breaking alertly, but he boasts no interim drills as of press time and the solid claiming outfit's willingness to take such a quick hit on him have us looking elsewhere for the winner.

French Quarter

Steps back up off a sharp tracking score in which he ran down and subsequently away from one of today's foes; a top pilot sticks with him as he returns in 3 weeks while likely again facing a foe with things his own way up top; the slightly shorter trip may not be ideal off that last one, but he did break his maiden at this 6 panel distance and maybe he gets a little help from the guy drawn to his immediate outside early today; dangerous repeat threat.

Cee 'n O

Beaten last out chalk at the level ran into a subsequent repeater when catching slop for the second time in as many local starts last month; he's quick enough to secure a good spot from the bell in here and maybe he's tighter third back from the break; worked well at Tampa last week for this and broke his maiden the only time he tried sprinting over a dry strip; price will be better on this contender today.

Little Tom

Brings some speed to the table but he'll draw an outside slot for this one; gelding tired after tracking a better bunch last time and his maiden win did come at a shorter trip, but he returned from his last to breeze well and maybe he finds himself in a good tracking spot from out here; he's improved significantly since returning with shades this year.-Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Storm Warnings

Scored a win last out but in a conditioned claimer easier than a starter; it also came around two turns and even more notably, in the slop; he is now 3-2-0-1 on wet tracks; chances improve if he can catch an off track again; has run Beyers in the 80s on multiple occasions over this track; could see him rallying for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Stephen A

Big step up in class to go from a N2L lifetime in a starter; there are some accomplished runners in here and his only victories came at Suffolk and here in the slop against N2Ls; proven at the mile distance but view the hike as too significant.

Political Justice

Finished 3 3/4 lengths behind likely favorite Goodtimehadbyall two starts ago when he was fifth in a similar spot and then returned with a third against 35K stock, albeit in a short field; is blessed with speed and picks up Rosario; just thinking he gets overplayed off the lone speed angle; probably an overbet second choice for a horse that usually runs Beyers in the 70s.

Playing a Joke

Lanerie lands on this class dropper after previously riding Stephen A to victory in that one's last start; failed to make an impact at Tampa recently but had a troubled start and that race might be best viewed as a toss out; ran a close sixth two starts ago going a mile here for 35K; although not beaten much, he still raced in sixth or seventh place throughout; back class going back to early 2012.

Goodtimehadbyall

Was in a tougher starter Mar. 13 and scratched; doubt it was a physical issue - or a major one anyway - as he was back Mar. 15 breezing five furlongs at Calder, and then went a much easier three furlongs Mar. 22; is a skilled performer from seven furlongs to a mile and has winning connections in his corner; should get a nice outside press/stalking trip behind the speed; tough to beat at a short price.

Matty's Trail

Might show more speed than he has in recent starts; after all, his wins here in December 2012 and January 2013 came when he made the lead; only beat one less than two weeks ago when racing in a race salty starter that was won by Viramundo; barn can light up the board on occasion - as reflected by the high ROIs in the stats at the bottom of the PPs.-Byron King

Race 5

Take My Time

His recent form has been his best and like the idea of him dropping back in with maiden claimers while giving turf another try; he has some earely speed to employ from a favorable rail post and going to look for him to be involved in the running throughout; runner up from latest won next out at Crc on 3/21 going 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer.

Edge of Midnight

He took a step in the right direction at second asking with a move to turf and he can be viewed as being a good fit at this 16k maiden claiming level; this barn has a reputation for improving horses with experience and like to see Rosario take the call.

Dragon Tail

His best effort is fast enough to get him into the mix against these, but his recent form hasn't been his best, and this is a 25-race maiden we're talking about; looking in another direction for the top spot.

Cannwyll

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 4 of 26 starts for 121k, including 0-for-1 over turf; he's basically been outrun at every point of call in his first five starts, and not sure that turf will prove to be a key for him.

Gavel Down

He improved along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his turf debut in his latest outing, but he's going to need to show more to get the job done in this spot, and he was beaten by today's rival Skarabajo in that race.

Graffitist

The last two times he's raced over turf he's put together performances that are in the neighborhood of what it might take to get the job done in this spot; however, he has struggled to maintain a forward gear late in his races.

Windworthy

His complete lack of early speed usually leaves him with a lot of work to do when he hits the top of the stretch, but if he can reproduce the performance he showed up with just two starts ago, there isn't any reason why he can't have a say in the outcome.

Skarabajo

His two most recent races have been improved performances and another drop in class certainly won't hurt him; he is seeking his first top-two finish, and others entice more for the top spot, but a minor award does appear to be within his reach.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Wild Oration

Wonder if she is losing the zest for the game at 7?; only one win last year in the $14K seller in the small field; she has sub :22 speed but so do others in this cast; a pop and stop 5th the last time she broke from the rail on grass; needs to pick it up.

Contrail

Don't be too harsh about last as it's never simple to beat winners right back; wraps re-added for the win and maybe she just wanted to get away from dirt; there are a couple of 6-figure earners in the family; needs a turn around.

Magic Mesa

Love fact mare has speed but doesn't need the lead to succeed; 4 exited the 1/16 race to win next out including the winner who cshed in a $90K stakes next out with a 93 Beyer beating rival on the direct outside; over 3 times as many slices as wins makes her a tough one to love on-top only.

Runway Ready

Her fate was probably sealed after she went :20 and small change; she may have just been a bit overmatched too; style no secret, she'll be sent along again; and she has a right to have a nice career as kin to Grade 2 winner and over $200K earner Corfu; interesting.

Commence Firing

Repeatedly proven fresh as 10-pound bug takes reins; in her best effort on this course she was beaten 3 quarters in an N1X spot; it can't be easy moving a horse up from a 41% barn; may need softer to shine.

Shenton Park

Only a brief threat in the marred race; she has trained well this month but is looking at a lot of speed today; handled by a couple of today's rivals; needs a rebound race.

Call My Lawyer

Mare had to be given time after the nose win in November; and she regressed in last pair after another taxing effort; her versatility could be her best asset; in good hands, needs to show more.

Dreaminofcarmela C

Maybe she just wanted grass all along; the 12/29 winner beat $16K claimers next out, was 2nd twice since; outside again, but she may have to prove she can pass horses; she could find it a little tougher to make the lead against winners; probably needs to improve to repeat.-Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Rockinpop

His two races were underwhelming, to say the least, and he's trying a middle distance on dirt for the first time with a blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree; trainer/rider combo is 0 for 6; dropper appears to be going nowhere fast.

Cement Clement

Limehorse was a sprinter/miler who notched his debut at 2, and his progeny has scored at a 13% clip first-time out; placed dam has produced the versatile Flight of a Dream ($64K); former Mark Casse assistant Griffith is one of Woodbine's top trainers of youngsters, and his recent stats with first-timers are impressive.

Flat in Charge

Woke up at 6-1 when he plunged to the lower ranks March 14, when second behind a runaway winner; Saez retains the mount and has had a pair of second aboard three rides at the meet for this barn; son of Flatter has found his proper place in the scheme of things.

The Best Monkey

Longtime maiden was beaten in double digits in each of his four most recent excursions, including two at this distance on the dirt; trainer/rider duo is 0 for 30 at the meet; seems capable of rounding out the super in the third race of his form cycle.

Tapitgold

Gray/roan is plunging to a new low for his first try going long on the dirt; the average win distance of leading sire Tapit's offspring is 7.4 furlongs; dam, a millionaire champion in Canada, took the nine-furlong Woodbine Oaks, but neither of her route starters found the mark, and she's been a poor producer; contender.

Krz Brew

Ontario-bred improved when he stretched out beyond three-quarters for the first time in a recent one-mile tilt, yet was still well beaten; son of stamina influence Milwaukee Brew is a half-brother to two stakes winners, including the millionaire sprinter Krz Ruckus; switches to a live bug rider, but may be no more than a bit player.

Super Summation

Finished up the course in each of his four outings, all on the local lawn, and began slowly in his last two tries; trainer has respectable turf/dirt stats, and this gelding is bred for the dirt; drops to a new low while changing riders to Argueta, who appears to have his work cut out for him today.

Mayhem Man

Didn't show much in six starts over a variety of distances at Calder, and is back at the price for which he was claimed after working here twice; new trainer is taking the blinkers off while changing jocks to Sanchez, and she's had some success with new shooters; consider for exotics.-Ron Gierkink

Race 8

Street Gem

Set the pace under pressure but gave way in the lane at about this level here Feb. 28; in her defense, though, not only did she take pressure, but it was her first start in 7 months; well, now she has that under her belt, there's no layoff since and no panicky drop, and it's nice to see Castellano stays; hey, she posted 2 SWs on turf in Jersey last summer so there's talent here, but there are a couple other speedsters she'll have to deal with.

Lily the Pink

3 2nds in 4 starts here show she handles this place; that being said, after a very nice spring/summer last year the pattern in the fall is a little disconcerting - so-so run at KEE as the favorite/layoff/so-so run at CD/layoff; again, at least you know she likes it here and it's nice to see a sharp guy like Proctor does not drop her; still, she surely needs to get things turned back around if she's to outdo these tough gals.

Angegreen (ITY)

2 G3 2nds on this course a year ago hinted she was ready to become a factor in the long distance distaff turf division; alas, then came a dull run at KEE last April 25 and she hasn't been seen since; at least you know she's got a touch of class and likes it here but she's going just a mile today, far short of her preferred trip; still, she had enough class in Italy to win 2 1 1/16-mile events so she's not completely out of her element.

Orion Moon (FR)

Came from France last spring and made an immediate impact in NY, winning at BEL and then at SAR; that was enough to earn a shot in a stakes at SAR Sept. 1 but she ran 5th (G1 SW Samitar won); hasn't been seen since but she's been working steadily for a trainer who excels off the bench; still, it's not as if she found a bunch of patsies to run again for her first start back.

Dene Court

Game 2nd in a spot like this here Jan. 15; then she pressed the pace in another spot like this here Feb 7 but faltered to 6th; Casse opted to give her some time to regroup since, and in her defense she had a bad draw that day (post 9); nice to see no drop and she's got the speed to be in it from the start; still, she's run just 2 good races in 5 starts since she was gone over 13 months.

Coffee Clique

Won her first start on turf, which nicely came over this course at this trip; of course, that was over 13 months ago and her turf form since has been so-so; in her defense, ALL her action since taht win (5 starts) has come in stakes so she get some class relief today, though is by no means some easy spot; nice to see Rosario takes the call and while she hasn't run in 7 months note her best race, a 4-length G3 SW on WO's Polytrack, came off a layoff, albeit a much shorter one (2 months).

She's Spooky

Lots of speed here to help her flee this outside post, and it's no small matter that she's done very well on this course (9-3-3-0); all that being said, there are at least a couple others in here who like it up front so that may mean she's goign to take pressure; the good news is she's shown she can take pressure vs. good ones and keep on truckin', but that may still mean she'll be working hard early and could that leave her a little dicey come furlongs 7 and 8, hmmmm?-Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Midnight Bliss

NIce move forward in start No. 2 to rally and beat maidens on this course March 5; apparently Gonzalez made a good buy as he claime dher out of a troubled debut; very nice now to see he does NOT risk her again for a tag this time, but it's first time vs. winners so she'll need to do a whole lot better than a 56 Beyer if she's to have a say.

Patsy's Holiday

Filly she chased here March 15 (Resistivity) is stakes quality, so no shame in getting beaten by her; prior start was a game win over this course; been pretty reliable in all 6 starts so far and those last 2 on turf (both here) show she'll keep running.

Spring Likeacobra

Beat maidens on turf at WO Aug. 3 but things haven't gone too well since as she's been no factor in her next 3 starts; that being said, there's been a layoff after all 3; good news is Casse does not risk her for a tag and this spot is almost surely easier than the one she exits here Jan. 11 and it's nice to see Rosario take the call; still there are more questions than answers after those last 3 not-so-hot outings and the layoffs.

Defying Gravity

Pretty wicked the way she kept to her task to beat maidens on this course Jan. 23; first try vs. winners, however, was ugly, but that was in a race taken off the turf and she dueled early before giving way; nice to see no layoff since and no panicky drop and maybe a return to turf and likely softer splits will get her back on track...maybe.

Successful Sweep

Don't see this pattern too often - go 4 1/2fs on dirt and run OK (3rd), go to the bench for then nearly 8 months, come back at 1 1/16 miles on turf and rally well to win; apparently she's come back a bigger, badder gal and this surface and trip suit her just fine; she had trouble that day turning for home, too, and still won; faces winners but she appears on the upswing, has worked twice since and Fawkes does not again risk her for a tag.

Raging Atlantic

Big win over $75K maiden claimers here Jan. 2 was followed by a sharp 2nd in a race like this here Jan. 23; that was enough to earn her a shot at the G3 Herecomesthebride here March 2; well, that was a disaster as she pressed the pace but gave way readily; nice to see on layoff since and the drop helps; main issue is whether that Herecomesthebride debacle took something out of her.

One Penny Piece (GB)

Came from England riding high off 2 big wins (over males no less) in November and promptly made a very smart impression here, easily beating some nice gals on this course March 13; Contessa saw fit to claim her, too, and she' smore than doubled in value; obviously is quite sharp and that March 13 run shows she's acclimated to her new surroundings and likes the footing here; it's a tougher spot to be sure but she may still have more improvement forthcoming.

Backstretch Lady

Far outside is no bargain, as is the fact she's facing some tough gals; comes off a nice 2nd at CRC, yes, but this groups is surely tougher; in fact, she tried similar to this here Dec. 19 and was no factor (9th) at 95-1; at least after that came that improved run at CRC but now she's back in the deeper end of the pool with over 2 months off since as well.-Michael Hammersly