Gulfstream: Closer Looks for March 12, 2014

Race 1

Broadway Secret

Opened up a substantial early lead before fading in each of her two recent excursions, but going a mile under Zayas; those efforts might make her more effective in this six-furlong dash, although her trainer has fared poorly with turnbacks; competing on short rest isn't ideal, but she could take some catching in this weak event.

Farfullera

Has worked twice at Calder since shipping down from Penn National, where she finished a lapped-on third Dec. 12 in a $5K sprint which has yet to yield a next-out winner; leading rider Castellano has taken the call, and should have her in contention for a share.

Starship Debutante

Longtime maiden is shortening up for a trainer with pretty good route/sprint numbers; 5yo is getting another rider change to the little-known Chirinos, who figures to put her in a stalking position; a must-use underneath in all vertical wagers.

Distinctly Sweet

Defeated every rival she could see when a distant second as the chalk in her second trip postward Jan. 10--the front-running winner returned to finish second in an N1X at Calder (62 Beyer); she can certainly take a step forward here under Panici, who was aboard for her encouraging debut; preferred.

Image of Lady Rose

Got the dreaded Beyer donut when she was beaten in double digits for the fourth straight time Dec. 1; 5yo has been freshened since, and has worked thrice leading up to this engagement; would be a big surprise.

Grimoire

Finished up the track in each of her last five outings, most recently in a turf experiment; trainer scored with 15% of his turf/dirt starters over the past five years ($0.86 ROI); daughter of Thunder Gulch is hard to recommend at this juncture.

Think Verde

Was beaten a combined total of 81 1/2 lengths in her three races; the winner of her last try on the grass subsequently doubled up in a $16K NW2 tilt with a 69 Beyer; trainer posted a 9% strike-rate with turf/dirt runners going back five years ($0.70 ROI); unlikely.-Ron Gierkink

Race 2

Feelingbettertoday

Her most recent race was one of her better efforts, but this might prove to be a tough step up in class for her, and she was just claimed away from Calabrese and Vazquez; not willing to count her out of the mix, but leaning toward others for the top spot.

Zero Game (IRE)

She's by a top turf sire and two of her first three starts since arriving in America have been strong enough to help give her a competitive look against these, and her one poor start of the three was when she played the role of a pacesetter; late running threat.

Here's d'Bride

Have to respect the way that she's performed since moving into this barn three starts ago and she beat today's rival Wild Swava in her latest outing; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Tam on 2/6 going 1m over turf vs. 16k claimers with a 66 Beyer.

Wild Swava

She's won four of five over turf, and with a rider switch to Castellano in her latest start, she stepped up with a career best Beyer Speed Figure; Castellano has won with 24 of 58 (41%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Urquia

She deserves credit for her consistent approach to the game but it just doesn't look like her best effort is strong enough to threaten the top contenders in this one; note that she has just a single victory from 18 turf starts.

Blues and Silvers

10-time winner has won nine of 15 over turf, including three of four over the Gulfstream Park turf course; her form has consistently been on the level of what it will take to win this, and she'll be favored to make this her tenth turf victory.

Charade

She looks like another in here who is going to need to dial up a career best effort to have a shot at the top spot and it is worth noting that she was claimed away from Ramsey and Maker from her latest race.

Sonja's Angel

When looking at what the horses in the main body of this race have shown to be capable of racing over dirt, this mare will be a heavy favorite in the event that this race has to be moved to the main track; horse-for-course will be tough to look past.-Brian Pochman

Race 4

Quarton Lake

So was it having some race experience, the drop or the blinkers that got that nice turnaround Feb. 23 where he gamely beat maidens?; probably a bit of each; well, 2 of those factors still apply as he has a bit more experience now and still has blinkers, but it's a huge step up to face winners for the first time; still, it's encouraging that while Gleaves risked him for a tag last time he takes no such risk with him today.

El Beitz

Has something no one else in here has - a win over winners; that came just last month, too, when he gamely edged $16K claimers; all his work has come here so you know he handles this place and while they risked him for a tag last time they take no such risk with him today; that being said, he tried a race just like this here Jan. 10 and was a non-factor 6th; was that just one of those days?; could be, because he did bounce back to win Feb. 7 and ther is a nice 4f work here March 1 (:49B) to encourage.

Genteel Citizen

Debut win was a beaut, not only because it was his debut but he dueled, looked beat but rerallied to win - and that win was flattered as today's foe Desenhado, who ran 2nd, came right back to win; OK, so start No. 2 wasn't very pretty but that was first time vs. winners, first time on turf and he blew the start from a poor post;back to dirt today and back in for the price for which he was claimed in that debut; still, that debut Beyer wasn't much (42) and came in slop so he's still a question mark on dry land, if that's what we're dealing with today.

Desenhado

Heading the right way; question is, were those last 2 better outings due to experience or moving to a wet main track?; maybe a bit of both; that experience can help here and it's noteworthy they don't risk him for a tag again today; there's some pedigree to bolster your hopes, too - he's kin to Good Ba Ba (a monster in Hong Kong with 16 wins for $7.4 million, numerous G1 SWs, Horse of the Year).

Predicting

Came out firing to win his debut at PRX last fall and then came 3 decent tries vs. winners, all on dirt; they tried turf last time but he got away poorly and was no factor; back to dirt today and the blinks come back off (they had been added for that turf start); and it's encouraging he's still not risked for a tag; Beyerwise he stacks up well here and a solid 3rd in a race like this here Jan. 10 shows he belongs.

Wingate Hall

Was it blinkers, the drop or move to a sprint that did the trick Feb. 7?; probably a bit of each; blinks stay on and while he raced for a tag that day they bring him back without a tag today; while that was sprinting he finished as though today's trip would be no sweat and you'd figure being a son of a horse who won the G1 BC Juvenile, G1 Ky. Derby and G1 Travers that he'd be effective going at least this far; 2 nice works of late, too.-Michael Hammersly

Race 5

Ginger Goose (GB)

Projects to race on or near the lead; the trainer is just 0-for-6 since 2013 first off the claim as he steps up in price for this; ran a huge race for the previous connections following a 53-day absence to just miss with his 2nd-hightest Beyer speed figure ever while racing on GP's turf course at today's distance; have to go back to August to see a bad turf race on his form; view as a speedy contender for win honors.

Lakota Brave

Maiden breaker was a career-best Beyer at longer upsetting 1st turf; did not fire best in 2 other-fresh starts during career which is a problem for this; the long layoff for an 0-for-12 fresh trainer since 2013 suggests we take a wait and see approach and for longer races down the road.

Native Gold

Claimed by a trainer just 0-for-3 first off the purchase since 2013; gets a negative 2-pound weight swing from Forever Conga after defeated by that one by more than 2 lengths in last; the 2-back show runner Beyered 82 in a next-out GP-50K-claiming win.

Marine

Never been better exiting a career-best and best-last-race Beyer speed figure; the even finish at longer suggests he wants more distance but cuts back to 7.5F for this noting his lone win was at 9F; the trainer is just 2-for the last-28 when returning one in 1-7 days; have mixed feelings.

I'm Star Struck

The 8th-place finish 1st off the claim was not very enticing and the trainer since 2013 is 1-for-29 overall with grass starters; Forever Conga is back after just beating this one while his lone win was at 1F longer than this; others appeal more.

El Gran Joyful

1st time in a claimer since 2012 for a high-percentage long-layoff trainer; his sire is 7-for-65 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 2-0-0-0 grass dam (1K) who produced 2 turf winners from 2 to race on grass including full-38K-turfer Play Soleil (2-for-9 grass); his 2-back dirt Mile is a field-best Beyer speed figure; the runner-up and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 94-77 in next-out CRC-allowance and GP-16K-claiming wins; scary if ready and likes the green; the pick.

Pegasus Star

Has been a new runner since blinkers were added but can he win right off the 48-day layoff?; races for another 1st off the claim trainer in this race who is winless since 2013 with this angle (0-for-5); comes off the 2nd-best Beyer of his career when racing at 7.5F for the 1st time graduating from just off the pace and figures to be an early presence chasing Ginger Goose.

Forever Conga

His one win was at 1F longer and appeared to be screaming out for more yardage in last when racing at today's distance but finished a hanging 3rd; will Ginger Goose get enough early pressure to help this late runner is a big concern; defeated by under 2 lengths 2 back vs. the show runner who Beyered 82 in a next-out 50K-claiming win; figures to be a major force in deep stretch and like that the win rider keeps the faith even for an 0-for-17 GP trainer; the one to beat.-Art Gropper

Race 6

Stallwalkin' Dude

Steps up in company while turning back to sprint after running down quick splits to post a career best Beyer score; gelding did break his maiden sprinting over the track last winter and the pace does figure to be solid at this shorter trip as well, but don't think he'll be set to step with the better ones in this heat; have to side against the repeat.

Confrontation

Undefeated gelding makes his first start since the fall in New York where he showed his versatility in 3 starts; he'll take on better in this spot and the barn hasn't done so well with its fresh runners, but this guy did work well last week for his return and given the likely quick clip in front of him he should get a solid setup; proven fresh, he's a contender.

Helooksthepart

Gets off the fence while dropping a level for his second start back from the break; gelding has a right to move forward second time over the local main track and he was ok in Illinois before hitting the shelf, but he's going to need to take another step forward on the figure scale to have a shot at getting in the mix here.

Border Song (FR)

Boasts a sharp main track drill for the surface switch in his first start off this barn's claim; gray has yet to try dirt, but he is a perfect 2 for 2 over synthetic footing; though it's nice to see a top pilot take interest, this router figures to have his work cut out for him against a field of sprint specialists; have to side with others on the win end.

Evolution Rocks

Highweight has had some time since wiring overnight stakes foes at the trip across town; his recent triple digit Beyer efforts certainly appear imposing on paper and this outfit does terrific work with its fresh runners, but this gelding's game is speed and the guys drawn just outside him are pretty quick as well so he's going to have to work pretty hard from the bell; his best is obviously good enough to win this but it looks like he'll have to earn this one.

Dreaming of Neno

Makes his first start for a new outfit for another crack at the level in his return from the break; his recent morning moves are sharp and he'll get a top pilot for the comebacker, but he does his better work on the front end so he'll likely be asked hard from the bell and that could again make him vulnerable in the lane; may prove to be the quickest of these early.

Guam Typhoon

Ships down to run on a track over which he's failed to hit the board in 3 tries; 8 year old does own solid early foot and he also possesses a decent stalking gear so the outside draw could put him in a good tracking spot today; .500 career hitter can prove a huge threat here.

Harbor Breeze

Returns from a short break after offering little in his return to this level; gelding is a local winner but he's also settled for plenty of minor awards here; he has run ok fresh in the past and Leparoux takes the return call, but don't know that he's a legitimate threat for anything more than a minor slice of this one.

Buongiorno Johnny

Outside drawn gelding switches surfaces for the drop back to this level after offering little against stakes runners on the local sod; 5 year old has been working sharply for this and he has won from a tracking spot in the past so maybe the outside draw helps him in his initial crack on dirt; still, he enters this in pretty weak form.-Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Social Inclusion

Opened eyes with a dominant win at first asking, overcoming a somewhat tardy start from the fence; obviously a talented colt, but gives up experience and is going two turns for the first time; many fast-out debut winners regress figurewise in their second races, but he could do that and still contend in a race in which 2 of the 5 don't appear to have much chance.

We're All Set

Is just 1 for 9 but take a look at the competition he's faced - Constitution, Tonalist, Top Billing, Surfing U S A, Wildcat Red; this is a battle tested horse and likely better than what his form indicates; could get a decent piece of this, particularly if Social Inclusion falters on the stretch out.

Specialnightaction

Looks like filler in a short field to help make this race 'go' for Honor Code' nothing he has shown suggests he can be competitive here; lone win came by a nose first out and he has been well beaten in his starts since.

Honor Code

Had his 3YO bow delayed by bone bruising - not the gap in works from Jan. 18 at Payson to Feb. 12 here at Gulf; clearly the class of the field, having won the Remsen over Cairo Prince, the likely Fla Derby favorite; and his second to Havana was a good one too; handled the slop at Saratoga first out - if by chance it rains Wed; chalky but a likely winner in a race written for him.

Ta Bueno

Another that looks like filler in a short field; he has been whipped in his last two starts, and now is stretching out in distance; ran a career-low Beyer the one time he went a mile; no thanks.-Byron King

Race 9

Late Night Artist

The disappointing Corinthian has sired 7% debut winners and 7% turf debut winners; unraced dam dropped stakes winner Mr Palmer ($251K), but none of her three turf starters found the mark; Romans won with 8% of his first-timers on the grass during the last five years ($1.33 ROI).

My Novena

Excellent speed sire Wildcat Heir has produced 14% first-time winners on the lawn; unraced dam dropped turf stakes winner Sinister Brew ($159K); homebred breezed a rapid five-eighths the other day, and shouldn't be regarded lightly; trainer/rider combo is 2 for 16 at the meet.

Fantastic Voyage

Her lone turf try was one of her worst performances, but it came in a key maiden special won a future stakes performer, so she deserves a mulligan; her recent form is solid, and her dam scored on the grass; possible for the bottom of exotics.

Starship Sassy

Has been competitive of late at this price under Leyva, and should be in the hunt; shortening up to a long sprint is probably a negative, however, since there doesn't appear to be much speed in the lineup; closer can round out the tri again if things go her way.

Bartiromo

Street Boss has sired a whopping 26% first-time turf winners, and his progeny have won at nearly a 23% clip overall on the lawn; stakes-winning dam was unplaced on the grass, and her only other foal to race placed on the dirt; Brown hit with 19% of his dirt/turf second-timers over the past five years ($1.70 ROI).

Little Zoe

Zoe flashed cheap speed at first asking on the grass, and was also beaten in double digits in a subsequent maiden special on the dirt; NY-bred may need more class relief before finding her proper place in the scheme of things.

Jannes Paul

Wasn't far back in fifth after taking the lone way home when she dropped to this level Feb. 2, from which the seventh horse exited to land a slow maiden special at Calder; return pilot Leparoux is 2 for 11 at the meet for Kenneally; nicely-bred daughter of Giant's Causeway shouldn't mind the cutback in distance, and can make her presence felt in her second start with blinkers.

Cinderella Time

Her last race at Monmouth has yielded three next-out winner, most notably Puddifoot, who doubled up in a $125K stakes here with an 81 Beyer; daughter of Stephen Got Even has very little turf breeding, and figures to need one before getting back on track.

Curlin On By

Was outrun in her opener, in a five-furlong maiden special, but merits another chance on the sod in this easier spot; Curlin is evolving into a good grass sire, and the dam has produced two debut winners on the turf; trainer has been shut out with maiden second-timers since the beginning of 2013; trainer/rider duo is 0 for 10 at the meet.

Littlemissperfect

Comebacker had some trouble in her lone start on the grass at Ellis Park--the winner just missed in a subsequent allowance at Churchill, and the ninth horse came back to take a maiden special at Ellis; daughter of Street Hero is a half-sister to turf expert Unaccountable ($285K); filly has her work cut out for her after breaking from the outside.-Ron Gierkink

Race 10

Guns At Dawn

Off a step slow but still split the field; the blinks could have her more focused here; dam was 0 for 4; this is her first to race; expect much better effort here.

Addar

She's had her chances and miss is speed challenged; would look for rider to take a little hold, hope a duel occurs and make the one run; needs very best.

Princesa Del Mar

Hard Spun 11 for 108 with first-time turfers; sire unbeaten in 3 juvenile outs, took G1 King's Bishop, banked over $2.6 million, never turfed; dam out of the money 3 times; 4 of 5 siblings won; top kin El Legado took 8 of 55, won thrice on grass, banked nearly $250K; needs a rebound run.

Take Charge Annie

Graeme Hall about 16% with debuters in a 290-runner sample, about 7% with first-time turfers in a 121-runner grid; sire won at 2, could carry speed, earned over a million, never turfed; dam just one for 19 and it was a dirt sprint; several multiple race winners in the family including multiple stakes winner, 9-time turf winner and over $400K earner Mr. Livingston; could need experience.

Concorde's Fizz

She didn't get the best of trips in the opener, improved on this surface; dam 0 for 5; 2 of 3 siblings won; 2 tried grass to no avail; race over the surface can't hurt; slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Rogue Lady

Can never dismiss this kind of speed; winner of the 2013 closer repeated in a $75K optional with an 82 Beyer; 2nd and 4th finishers in last took MSW events next out and the 9th finisher took a maiden $12.5K claimer; just might get brave with a lonely lead.

Shot Girl

She has had trip issues every time; 1 for 6 dam never turfed; all 3 siblings own, none tried grass; the drop can't hurt and her best race came on this course; not impossible task.

Bluegrass Genius

Bluegrass Cat about 6% with first-time turfers in a 172-runner grid; sire won thrice at 2, took G1 Haskell, was 2nd in the Derby and Belmont, banked over $1.7 million, never turfed; dam was unraced; both siblings won; one banked $90K; the one that tried grass was out of the money in only turf out; needs a total reversal of fortune after Tampa fiasco.

Chief Dante

Miss has the 3 races to draw from and miss was more keen to run early in last; Lezcano got a chance to figure her out; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Dreaminofcarmela C

Gottcha Gold 0 for 18 with first-time turfers; sire won at 2, took multiple Grade 3s, earned over $900K, lost thrice on grass; 2 for 8 dam was out of the money in only turf try; 8 of 9 siblings won; 2 won on grass; top kin Rocky River earned nearly $130K; tons best of the rest in the slop two back; don't sell too short.-Brian Mulligan