Gulfstream: Closer Looks for January 30, 2014

Race 2

Alondra Sky

Failed to exhibit much stamina after flashing speed in each of her last four excursions, all under a 10-pound bug; her new jock is 0 for 10 at the meet for this low-percentage trainer, who has weak turf/dirt numbers; pretender.

Divine Doll

Got wiped out at the break when she experimented on the grass at second asking, and is dropping back down to the price and distance over which she ran fourth in her opener; she's eligible to improve dramatically in her first start with Lasix; could be the main threat to the improving Zanjera.

Zanjera

Surrendered a clear lead in the stretch en route to running second following a layoff in her third trip postward Jan. 5; cutting back a furlong to seven-eighths should suit her to a T, if she's able to duplicate that last wake-up effort; trainer/rider combo is 0 for 17 at this stand; the one to knock off.

Lori's Image

Defeated every rival she could see when a distant second while plunging to this price earlier this month; 4yo is eligible to run a peak race in her third after an extended layoff, and should be along to garner some of the pieces if things go her way.

Arabella Acappella

Chestnut has been sidelined for over a year, and her trainer has a poor record with six-month-plus comebackers; the third and fifth horses from her last race both came right back to score, and the winner subsequently ran third in an N1X/optional event; has been working in leisurely fashion at Calder, and might need one.

Sir Jeffrey Image

Got the dreaded Beyer donut when she finished up the track behind Alondra Sky in her latest; 5yo hasn't hit the board since 2011, although she missed all of 2012; hard to recommend at this juncture.

Sofialeonor

Her penultimate try wasn't bad from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, and she might be poised to fire one of her better shots here third-time off the bench; trainer is 0 for 12 with blinkers on during the past five years; her new rider is 1 for 1 at the meet for this barn; logical for the bottom of vertical wagers.-Ron Gierkink

Race 3

Run Hide My Girl

Came out firing to win her debut; not only was that nice on its own, but she did so after a sluggish start, and the gal she beat back into 2nd was another 5 lengths clear of 3rd; yes, those were maiden claimers, but note Tomlinson takes no such risk of losing her via a claim here; does have to face winners today but the Beyer was nice and it came on this track at this trip.

Gotaheartofgold

Nice maiden win at CRC a few months ago earned her a stakes shot, though hey, that was a huge step up in class, it was her first try vs. winners, first try on turf and she was sent off at 114-1 - and, she sorta ran like it; moved back to dirt and in for a tag but while she ran better she was still no real factor; those were sprints and today she's back to a mile and maybe that will help as her lone win came at this trip; still, her career-top Beyer (54) teels you she's still got work to do.

Gdansk

Came into her own on WO's Pllytrack in the fall with 2 smashing wins; came here, tried turf and tougher to no avail but her other turf start was ugly, too, so maybe that's not her game; nice to see she's still not offered for a tag today; it is first time dirt, but the quick turnaround encourages (Gonzalez is 1 for last 2 coming back in 7 days or less), Gonzalez is having a fine meet (5 for first 24, 21%) and Castellano sees fit to ride.

You Never Learn

Broke her maiden sprinting here a couple months ago so she handles this place; first try vs. winners Dec. 19 saw her only 4th but that wasn't bad considering she blew the start, was wide and that it was her first try vs. winners; nice to see no big drop and the way she's run so far hints she may enjoy this longer trip more than those sprints, though from a Beyer standpoint a big move forward is still required.

Slazarra

So was that big Dec. 26 win here the result of adding blinkers or maturity or experience or new rider Zayas?; well maybe some of each; the good news is most all that applies again today as she likes it here, likes the trip and keeps the shades; must deal with winners but notice that while Garcia risked her for a tag last time he takes no such risk today and 2 works since that win say she's doing well.

Sharp Words

Looked super blasting maidens here Dec. 6; best of all, it came at this same trip and the Beyer was sweet (70); faces winners, yes, and hasn't run since but she's been working splendidly including a bullet :47.40B here Jan. 24, and note Pinchin risked her for a tag that day but takes no such risk with her this time.

Signofaffection

Came out firing to win her debut at CRC last June 23 but you had to be a bit worried that she wasn't seen again for 2 months; and when she did come back here last summer/fall her 2 efforts weren't very pretty; went back to CRC and perked up nicely so that was encouraging; last time?; well, you can be a bit forgiving as that was first time on turf, vs. some tough customers, from a brutal post and she was 114-1 so she wasn't really supposed to do much; back down in class and back to dirt and maybe that can get her back on track...unless she needs to be at CRC for her best.

Another Incident

Only 4th here Jan. 2 at this trip but it still earned her the best Beyer in this field (73); that came vs. some tough customers and she was in no way disgraced; down in class today and that gives her a race over the track and she's proven at this trip; worked well twice since for Nick, too.-Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Seattle Brook

Another who's had stamina issues during career while cutting back to 5F for last did not help the form out any finishing last behind the show finisher who posted an 80 Beyer speed figure in his next-out GP-MSW win; takes the biggest-class drop in racing angle (MSW-to-maiden claiming) in need of a massive wakeup call.

Trouble With Girls

Blew a huge-early cushion 1st time on turf at 3F longer than this ending up finishing last; debut race was at a shorter distance than today's 5F losing to the show finisher who Beyered 63 in his next-out GP-MSW win; know him early but unsure about late.

Two Step Swag

Trainer is 0-for the last-32 with the blinkers-on angle; is another who should appreciate cutting back in distance after primed for this in routes; 9-week absence for a 1-for-28 fresh trainer since 2013; view as a pace presence for part.

Wild Mooch

Sire is 23-for-158 with 1st-turf starters; 52-for-304 with debut runners; is out of a 5-for-24 dam (144K) who won 4-of-18 on turf (129K) producing 6 winners from 6 other foals to race; 3 of 6 foals to race on grass are lawn winners including 4-for-17 turfer Alke John (81K).

Little Tom

Sire is 32-for-236 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an unraced dam who's only other foal to race went 0-for-3 on the green; the runner-up and 10th-place finishers from last Beyered 73-70 in next-out GP-MSW and 30K-maiden-claiming wins.

Devils Peak

Shown zero-gate speed in 2 route losses so cutting back to 5F does not add to the appeal; defeated 3 runners combined in 2 losses; new rider began the GP meet an icy 1-for-23; the runner-up finisher from last graduated next out with a 61 Beyer.

Big Gus

Even-running debut suggests more distance would be needed but cuts back a half furlong for this; sire is 24-for-200 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 8-for-25 grass Grade 3-stakes-winning dam (262K); the long layoff is the biggest issue for a top grass-sprint trainer who is 1-for-11 with the extended-vacation angle since 2013.

Skarabajo

Another who cuts back to his shortest-stamina test ever; shortening up figures to help this one after being dueled into defeat in last vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 61 in his next-out CRC-MSW win; another know him early unsure about late pace presence.

Strategic Keeper

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when favored in defeat 1st time ever in a maiden claimer the biggest class drop in racing; cuts back 3F in distance here which is obviously a huge concern for this deep closer; would be more alarmed if the barn wasn't winning at a 44% rate with route-to-sprint startes since 2013.

Automatic Jax

Grass debut represents a career-low Beyer when upclose early then nowhere late; today is the shortest-disatnce test of his career; the 3-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 85-63 in their next-out GP allowance-CRC-MSW wins; another we view as a pace presence for part.-Art Gropper

Race 5

Rumblefortheroses

Half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Tajaaweed (5-24, 314k, including 3 of 12 North American turf starts for 223k) has run well enough in both of his turf start to merit respect against these and he projects top sit a favorable after breaking out of post one; Castellano has won with 22 of 68 (32%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Hurricane Pass

His two most recent races have been improved performances and this son of fine turf influence Artie Schiller deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over turf; have to respect his chances while making his first start for Ramsey and Maker, and Leparoux has won with 6 of 17 (35%) mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Sin Mirar Atras

He has a little bit of turf in his pedigree, so another turf try isn't a bad idea, but he was beaten by a few of today's rivals in his latest start over the main track here, and an improved performance is a must if he's to contend.

Ease On Bai

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 2 of 15 starts for 30k, including 0-for-1 over turf; his recent form racing over dirt and the synthetic surface at Woodbine haven't been bad and this is a good spot to get him over turf for the first time.

Il Duomo

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's been a fairly consistent performer through his first 11 starts, but his pedigree isn't exactly crying out for turf, and he will need his best performance to date to beat these.

Serafino

He's two-for-two in the quality start department to begin his career, but he is meeting up with winners for the first time after being claimed away from the Ward barn, and he might have a tough time avoiding an early pace dispute in this race; runner up from latest won next out at Crc on 1/17 goin g 1m vs. MSW rivals with a 61 Beyer.

Party in the Sky

Sire wins with approximately 4% of his turf starters and dam won once form nine starts for 17k, including 0-for-2 over turf; third-place finisher from latest won next out here on 1/23 going 6f vs. 16k claimers with a 73 Beyer.

Ba Ba Brett

He earned a stakes placing in his career debut, and like to see that his form has been improved since being returned from a layoff two races ago, and that includes his first attemtp in a turf route in his latest outing; however, he's an early speed type and race shape might not be in his favor.

Windtalker

He earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in a winning performance while making only his second start over turf in his latest outing and the runner up from that race returned to win next out at Crc on 1/19 going 7f vs. 12.5k MCL's with a 60 Beyer.

Predicting

Limited available data on G1 winning sire with regard to his turf starters and he won 5 of 12 starts for 465k without a turf start during his racing career; dam was winless from three starts, including one turf start; he's run well in his first three starts and this looks like a favorable spot to get him over turf for the first time.

The Battle Is On

The outside post isn't ideal, but he sports some of the faster and more consistent turf form in this race, and as long as he can avoid getting into an early pace dispute, he figures to be right in the hunt through the final furlong.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Noor Un Nisa

Failed to show much in recent conditioned claimers, and is simply biting off way more than she can chew in this much tougher optional starter; dirt probably isn't her surface of choice, and she's simply up against it with the bug back in the tack.

Courtney Ryan

Prevailed in a front-end battle and the war while barely landing an identical event over Daddy's Jewel earlier this month; she figures to have the imposing Sonja's Angel to deal with here on the lead if she employs an aggressive approach; steady mare is a must-use underneath in exotics.

Charm Cat

Stuck to the turf without any luck in her last few, and her dirt form is spotty to say the least; she's moving up in class while changing jocks to Chamafi, who's 0 for 4 at the meet for this low-percentage outfit; don't like her chances.

Daddys Jewel

Dropped a neck decision to Courtney Ryan after duking it out through the stretch when she moved out off a victory in a six-furlong dash at this level; her stalking style should be made-to-order for this contest, as along as Courtney Ryan and Sonja's Angel link up on the front end; preferred.

Naiguata

Went to the sidelines after she finished a flat third here in a seven-furlong starter in September, from which the fourth horse exited to score at the same $10K starter level; the starter she won Sept. 1 produced a trio of next-out winners; has worked quickly for a trainer who's shareless at the meet, and is eligible to sneak into the tri or super.

Sonja's Angel

Put up a career high 89 Beyer when she polished off similar after dueling through fast splits Dec. 19; has since worked a half for a trainer bearing solid numbers pertaining to this situation; horse-for-course should be prominent throughout as an underlay.

Double the Lead

Never challenged in a pair of conditioned claimers on the grass here lately, and is seemingly in too deep with these; trainer is 2 for 9 (22%) first-time off the claim over the last five years ($0.86 ROI); trainer/rider tandem is 1 for 8 at the meet.-Ron Gierkink

Race 7

Henry's Song

She improved steadily in the debut and both from this barn must be respected today; dam won once on dirt; this is her first to go; must prove she can run with this level rival.

On a Star

Talent Search 3 for 15 with debuters, 0 for 1 with first-time turfers; stakes winning sire took debut at 2, earned over $600K, never turfed; dam was unraced; this is her first to go; note gap in published moves till 12/24.

Orient Harbor

Educated in the debut after breaking from slot 12; Grade 3 winning 6 for 13 dam earned nearly $275K, was turf only; this is her first to go; needs to hurry.

Lovely

Pulpit about about 12% with debuters in a 624-runner study, about 10% with first-time turf runners in a 440-runner sample; sire didn't go at 2, won debut by over 7, won 3 of next 4 including the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; dam 0 for 4; several multiple race winners in the family including multiple G3 winner, grass winner and near $700K earner Multiple Choice; she has trained steadily for this.

Wickedness

War Front 10% with debuters in a 158-runner study, about 13% with first-time turf runners in a 123-runner sample; sire was out of the money in lone start at 2, won 4 times including a G2, banked nearly $425K, never turfed; Grade 1 placed 3 for 17 dam earned over $150K, won twice on grass; several multiple race winners in the family including stakes winner, triple turf winner and over $100K earner Ayla Bella; miss looks fit enough.

The Careless Cat

Freshened since decent debut and like the spacing of the comeback drills; Grade 2 winning 9 for 26 dam earned $325K, won thrice on grass; 6 of 7 siblings won; top earner Who's First won 4 times on grass, banked nearly $100K; may need a race.

Southern n' Sassy

Denis of Cork 1 for 8 with debuters, 1 for 2 with first-time turfers; sire won debut at 2, took a G3, earned over $600K, never turfed; 3 for 23 dam earned about a grand a start, never turfed; 2 of 4 siblings won; both won on grass, one banked nearly $80K; may need experience.

Costenia

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 654-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 549-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2 as a turf monster; 3 for 7 dam earned nearly $150K, won twice on grass; this is her first to go; trainer spotted them fine last year with limited starters.

Zindaya

Almost overcame trouble in the debut, got a feel of the surface now and was 4 clear in the process; 2 for 12 dam did win on grass; lone half bro Western Aristocrat took 4 of 9, took a G1, won on grass, banked about $225K; the one to beat.

Top Notch Blue

Imperialism 15 for 107 with firsters, 1 for 59 with first-time turfers; sire won thrice at 2, won several G2s, banked nearly $900K, lost 5 times on turf; dam was unraced; lone half sis lost 8 times; steady moves at Calder.

Rubytheheartstealr

Henny Hughes 16% with debuters in a 220-runner study, about 13% with first-time turf runners in a 111-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, won a couple of G1s, banked over $1.1 million, never was on grass; 3 for 28 dam was dirt sprint only; one of 3 siblings won; that runner, Graeme Six, took 5 of 17, banked nearly $350K, never turfed; barn continues to roll.

More Than a Party

Tons best of the rest in the shore finale and she was inching toward the winner last time; 6 for 40 dam earned over $160K, lost twice on grass; both siblings won including double grass winner and over $450K earner Partyallnightlong; check out the bullet a week ago.-Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Fort Boonesborough

Deep closer needs a lively pace; most of his route experience has been around 2 turns so the transition to this straightaway mile can pose problems; will have to run a personal best to defeat these in a race that comes up strong for the price tag involved.

Revelationist

This colt did not fare well when negotiating the inner dirt course at Aqueduct; broke his maiden over this soil and seems a much better runner at the one-turn mile; maintains top-notch rider who has been aboard since day one; drops to the proper level.

Poco Man

Lost momentum at the start of his last sprint assignment and should appreciate this longer distance, affording him a chance to relax before the far turn; scored in his only attempt at a mile but that was over a sloppy surface; should be a generous price once again.

Beer Garden

Came up empty in the last run with no visible excuse; would improve his exacta chances here if able to catch an off-track; like others in this line-up, he has proven to be a better runner when dealing with 2-turn affairs.

Bar Magic

Wore down the leaders to score in his first local try on New Year's Day; although he has been a consistent performer, he must spot a ton of route experience to the group; may have to settle for minor spoils as a result.

Java Man

In his last try at Tampa, he was pressured from the opening bell but was good enough to maintain third; best lifetime Beyers have been achieved at this distance and configuration; logical contender regardless of the soil condition at post time.

Megalith

Warhorse turned in a respectable effort 15 days when facing better company; has earned the overwhelming majority of his bankroll in sprints; does hold a back class edge over most of the field but the distant factor remains paramount; difficult assessment today.

Storm Warnings

The gelding has been shut out during the last couple of seasons and has never shown no real preference for this track; third start off the bench angle can brighten his prospects but still believe he will arrive too late for top prize.

Political Justice

One of the main speeds to consider and perhaps the last effort can be forgiven when he was involved in an intense speed duel (note the swift half-mile fraction of that event); should be on or near a softer early tempo here and move forward from that defeat.-Jim Kachulis

Race 9

Headwing

Showed an improved turn of foot when dropped to this level second time out but still had little to offer late; maybe he moves forward off that with the move to the fence and he's not facing all that much in here, but off what he's shown thus far a minor award looks to be his ceiling.

Laws of the City

Drew outside for his initial stretchout try on the lawn and did make a decent run before tiring late; maybe he deserves another crack over the footing at this level and a top pilot does stick, but this guy's lone sib was winless from 6 sod attempts.

Rumble Time

Tried Canadian MSWs without much luck first out and now he'll give the green a shot while dropping in with claimers for his local debut; his sire gets about 10% winners from his first time turfers and the SP dam won twice on the green prior to dropping a couple of 6 figure winners, one of whom who twice on the lawn; works suggest he'll handle the footing.

Genteel Citizen

Sire gets 11% winners from his debut runners overall and 9% winners from his initial turf starters; dam was winless from 3 starts but did drop a handful of winners including a couple of overseas winners and Turkish, a 2 time turf winner in the states who banked 120K; works don't offer many clues but the barn knows how to get them ready to fire and a top pilot takes the call.

Station Commander

He's shown some early foot without much stamina of late and now he'll move inside after breaking from a tough draw last time; maybe this cheaper set helps and he does own one of the better turf route efforts in the field back in the fall in New Jersey; worth a look.

Kilowatt

They tried to get him on the lawn first out but the heat came off and he showed little; drop to claimers did help to perk him up a little across town and now he'll again look to get on the green; his sire gets about 17% winners from his initial surface starters and the dam was a hard hitter who won 14 total races (1 on turf and 9 going long) while banking 224K; lone sib was 0 for 3 and never tried this type of footing.

Ten and Four

Drops a level after earning a solid number behind one of the guys who shows up again in this spot; dam did drop a turf winner and the barn is profitable on this footing, but they have been on a poor run at the local stand; maybe for a share.

Grizzle

Moved forward with shades added on the drop to claimers in his local debut on New Year's Day; gray has only run twice so he has a right to improve quickly and he is kin to 2 main track winners; barn is going well at the stand and a capable pilot sticks; consider.

Desenhado

Wasn't a threat in either of his starts since moving to the lawn; he is kin to a few surface winners including Good Ba Ba, a pretty good one who took the G1 Hong Kong Mile on turf a couple of times during his career; still, off what he's run so far he's got a lot to prove.

Spanish Ranch

Faded in each of his 2 spaced turf tries and now he'll give the local sod another crack; gelding showed some early interest last time and is kin to a couple of turf winners so maybe with some experience in him he'll have more to offer, but he looms another big price in this spot.

Lincoln Zypher

Outside drawn colt showed solid early lick again before fading from a similar post a couple of weeks back; he's certainly responded to the addition of shades and his effort 2 back was the fastest any of these have run; one to catch and beat.-Steve Grabowski