Gulfstream: Closer Looks for January 26, 2014

Race 1

Running Alone

Exits a useful tightening race over the grass where he stayed within range until the final furlong; the trainer has done well with a limited number of turf-to-dirt types such as this and the inside advantage can make the difference today.

Rontos' Code

One of the main speeds to consider and the grey may not have cared for the sloppy conditions in the last assignment; was part of a strong early pace in that event but may face pressure from the opening bell once again; difficult call.

Song for Krismike

Has some gate speed in his favor but endurance issues remain; on the plus side of the ledger is the surprisingly quick workout turned in 11 days ago; may need some key late scratches, however, to get away free and clear.

Royal Gallant

Some upbeat workouts for this new face, son of G2 winner Chapel Royal who banked 495K (his offspring have won 11 percent of their debuts); the dam won 5 of 37 races and this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Dark Winter

This colt has shown little firepower before or after that lengthy vacation; flashed a bit of improved early foot in the last run but still have doubts that a sudden breakthrough is at hand; pass until further notice.

Ride a Song

Stayed in contention until midstretch in his recent test over the lawn; has limited main track experience but is racing well below the purchase price today; should give a better account of himself vs. this grade.

Blockade Runner

A clear-cut second all the way around in that November getaway race at Churchill stamps him as a legit contender today; the latest a.m. breeze was encouraging and he should secure a favorable stalking position with a clean break.

Ray of Light

Bet down to favoritism in his first run, he is facing nothing special this afternoon; his sire won a G1 and 591K while the dam scored in 1 of 4 appearances earning 47K; among the winning siblings is 148K earner Radiant Talent.

Optionality

Drew bad post positions in the last pair yet still almost graduated in the race 2 back; the main statistic for this gelding is the win percentage of the trainer involved; should be a late force in a race where there can be a pace meltdown.

Race 2

Big Belief

Has been idle since a subpar performance over Woodbine's Polytrack in June, but she's fired off a shorter layoff in the past; Lynchie scored with 17% of his six-month-plus comebackers over the last five years ($1.63 ROI); note that her lone start here last winter on the dirt was wasn't bad.

Currency Union

Came up a tad short in each of her last two six-furlong races--her recent form is more appealing if you ignore those longer engagements; her new rider is 1 for 4 at the meet for this live barn; is capable of rounding out the exacta behind the imposing Highestmaintenance.

Highestmaintenance

Could only manage second as the big favorite in each of her last two races, including in a 100-grander at the Big A; Macho Uno filly has worked encouragingly at Palm Meadows for accomplished layoff trainer Pletcher, who rules Gulfstream; hard to go past under top jock Castellano, who broke her maiden; Pletcher and Castellano each won an Eclipse Award for '13.

Wild Kira

Outsider was a distant/wide third against Fla-bred optional-claiming opposition in her latest, which was won by a rival who subsequently got dusted in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint; 5yo is meeting tougher on this occasion, and can be dismissed with confidence.

Wholelotaroyalty

Crushed $25K non-winners of three stock at Calder in her debut for Ziadie, who has a 34% strike-rate second-time off the claim during the past three years ($2.41 ROI); her last Gulfstream effort was solid, and she's a good fit here from a Beyer perspective; might give Highestmaintenance a run for her money.

Celebrity Star

Raced wide in a stalking position before flattening out to fifth when she moved up to this level Dec. 13--that six-furlong dash contained subsequent turf allowance winner Quay (84 Beyer); she breezed a bullet half-mile the other day, and can move forward in the second start of her form cycle; consider her for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Race 3

Kikiy's Toni

Finished on the outer edges in the majority of her excursions, and she exhibited improvement in her second local try; looks fourth-best on paper here in her third start following a layoff.

Jamie's Catch

Was beaten in double digits in most of her 14 appearances, but managed a third from nine Gulfstream starts; the fifth horse from her last race subsequently graduated in a $35K seller which was yanked off the grass (61 Beyer); mission impossible.

Contrail

Has regressed since ending up second in her debut last July, but should be poised to get back on track here with the drop from maiden special company; trainer/rider combo is 0 for 7 at the meet, but four of those runners hit the board; has drawn better than she did last time, when she broke from the dreaded one-hole.

Siren's Secret

Just missed after helping to set the pace when she descended to this level Jan. 12, when she was scooped up by a trainer with excellent numbers first-time off the claim; her new rider Saez is 5 for 15 at the meet aboard Antonio Sano trainees; should be prominent with her tactical speed.

Double Interest

Finished up the track in both of her outings in the fall, and is resurfacing with blinkers added; daughter of After Market is out of a modest producer; pretender.

Dunshaughlin

Sire never won and has produced just 2.7% debut winners; dam won her first start and a minor stakes at 2; dam has thrown four winners from as many starters, including the 2yo debut winner Southern Dunn ($78K); trainer sports an impressive 34% win clip with first-timers over the past five years ($2.47 ROI); figures to flash some speed.

Race 4

Bellatara

Will save every inch of ground then make one run; exits her best Beyer speed figure since her career-Top performance more than 1 year ago but all of her best races have been right here on GP grass; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 75-62 in next-out GP-35K-20K maiden-claiming wins.

Kingdom's Crown

Adds 2F off the long layoff which is a major issue after fading when last seen; the debut winner repeated with a 75 Beyer in her next-out AP-optional-claiming win; new trainer yields just 6%-fresh winners and 6% victors with runners 1st time in the barn; others appeal more.

My Cousin Fay

Rider of last stays here when seemingly having other options; sire is 9-for-117 with 1st-turf starters; she is out of a 6-0-1-2 grass dam (27K); 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-4 combined; strong-2nd-time out improvement in a race she needed off the 8-week absence when defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 73 in her next-out GP-35K-maiden-claiming win.

Weather Permitting

Half of her dozen defeats were minor awards including latest on dirt which represents a co-Beyer Top; last time on turf saw her finish behind My Wonder Baby; this late runner needs a hotly-contested pace and some trip help to rally past them all; hard to leave out of the exotics conversation.

Calm Reply

Great sign that her 1st race on turf is a career-best Beyer; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 75-65 in next-out CRC-MSW-OPC wins; good-late kick on her best day however the main issue is whether she can get up in time at 7.5F.

Amber Morning

Her field-best Beyer was at 1Mile on SAR grass but is 4-0-0-1 since that huge effort; her 1st race off the claim was dull landing behind similar rivals in this same spot but we know there is talent here; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 75-62 in next-out GP-35K-20K maiden-claiming wins.

My Wonder Baby

Disappointed in latest vs. Calm Reply who is back for this; 2-back represents a career-best Beyer when beating similar; guess you could blame the 9-week absence or wet turf for latest subpar effort when favored; hopes to make amends on firm turf and improve 2nd time off the bench.

Adria

Just 1 career race unlike many of these with a lot of defeats she still has some upside; the debut winner repeated in a GP-OPC with an 80 Beyer; cuts back in distance but wish the worktab sparkled more for the 1st start in a maiden claimer taking the biggest-class drop in racing today from MSW company.

Lloyd Harbor

Just missed in last in this same spot; it was a huge wakeup start while today is switching to a sizzling-GP rider her 5th different jockey in as many races which is usually not a good-win agle; the rider from last sides with My Cousin Fay; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 75-62 in next-out GP-35K-20K maiden-claiming wins; obviously if repeats last has every right to graduate today.

Think Verde

Sire is 20-for-342 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; stamina issues for this likely frontrunner who adds distance and doubles the price tag off latest loss; took betting money in 1st pair without showing much; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Race 5

Dynamic Boy

Drops in for a tag after proving little threat second time back from the freshening at Calder; gelding does own a local score and he's run a handful of numbers over the past several months that are as good as any of these have run; 5 year old also figures to appreciate any give in the ground he could get; contender.

Cars and Trucks

Returns from a freshening to try the lawn again while getting another new pilot; gelding has some speed and maybe that helps him gain position from an inside draw over a course he's won on twice, but have to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Alicantino

Gelding has had his stamina issues of late and now he'll move back inside while tackling an added half panel; gelding tracked to score in his 2 surface scores last year, but don't know that he'll be able to do that in his current form; siding with others.

He's Hollywood

Late runner wasn't beaten all that much when third at the level last time; maybe that one's a sign that he's ready to get back on his game but his local slate is weak and he'll need to move forward off the try in order to get in the mix in this spot.

Momma's Happy

Found himself on the lead across town last time and didn't have enough to go on late; gelding moves off the fence so he should be able to settle a bit off the pacesetters in this one and maybe that helps make a difference; with Lopez taking the call he's worth a good look.

My Sonny Boy

Nine year old is back in for sale after getting on track too late in a protected spot last time; like the fact he was able to sit a little closer to the top in that one and he did run well in Illinois last year, but the guy who ran right past him last time lines up right next to him here.

Vanquisher

Overcame a moderate clip to score 2 back at the trip before proving little threat to the winner against a better bunch last time; 10 year old should like things better with these and the pace in front of him does at least figure to be honest; switching back to Bravo, he's the one they'll have to beat.

Thundering Waters

Understandably came up a little short late while returning from 3 months on the shelf in his local return; he should be better with the effort behind him and though he takes on a tougher bunch, when right, he runs well on the lawn; note that each of his surface scores has come over a course with give in it; can't count him out.

Bergerac

Goes second off the freshening after backing up in his local return; gelding was decent on the green out of town last year and maybe he moves forward with his last behind him but he hasn't done much in 8 career spins here; maybe for a share.

Hopefully Lucky

Hasn't been on the lawn in a while and when he did try the stuff, speed was his best game; maybe he benefits from his first start back from more than 6 months on the shelf, but he looks to be up against it from here against this bunch.

Sayler's Creek

Got his neck down while overcoming trouble to best conditioned claimers in his local course debut and now he'll try open claimers; top pilot sticks with him and he boasts a couple of sharp interim drills, but he'll go from the fence to an outside draw and that won't make things easy on him; threat on his best, but he'll have to earn the repeat from out here and he'll likely take plenty of tote support.

Rattlesnake Red

Draws the outside slot after being beaten rather handily by some of the guys he'll catch again in this spot; he has no speed and will likely find himself with a lot to do late; has the look of a longshot again today.

Kentucky Hero

AE steps up off a solid score on the Calder lawn last week; he'll start from a tough draw if he does get to go and that would make it difficult for him to take the step forward he'll need to have a say in the outcome here.

Race 6

Tapit's Brew

Tired in the 1st race off the claim when making his 1st grass attempt since June; last win was right on the lead; he was placed up top in latest 10 days ago but had no answers after a half mile; the 3-back runner-up finisher posted a 77 Beyer speed figure in his WO-20K-claiming next-out win; know him early but unsure about late.

Lonesome Street

Drops in claiming price again seeking answers; the 5th and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 89-77 in next-out CRC-optional-claiming and TAM-16K-claiming wins; his field-best Beyer speed figure was accomplished April, 2012, in a KEE-Grade 2 synthetic-surface stakes victory at 7F.

Dreaming of Danny

Deep closer takes a massive-class drop after being overmatched vs. stakes company 50 days ago; 5-0-1-2 record since claimed off solid form; his last win was over a wet-turf course at longer than this; August near-miss finish was also at longer on GP grass a career-best Beyer which looks better since the winner repeated in a GP-OPC with an 85 speed figure.

Hobo Ridge

Exits a career-low Beyer when fading badly in a GP-marathon; won at longer 2-back on less-than-firm turf and 7.5F seems like a better distance for him than last but he's not raced this short in nearly 1 year; the 3-back winner and runner-up Beyered 89-85 in next-out GP-35K-claiming and MED-OPC wins.

Key to Power

Is best when stalking the speed but saw none of his tactical speed in last pair including latest which accounts for his 1st-GP grass start; all 4 wins at 8.5F he has not raced this short of a distance since May, 2012; has never raced for this low of a claiming price tag but the 8th-place finish from last is his worst placement since September, '12.

Straight Town

Expecting much better form after being re-claimed for this; have mixed reviews from his fresh races; away 74 days since posting his lowest Beyer since September, 2012, a last-place finish; has not been at his best on wet-turf courses so willing to dimiss last; worked a 4F-bullet on turf for this suggesting we will see better form today.

Macho Coach

Was screaming out for more distance in last and gets it here; 5-0-0-0 record since the synthetic-surface win is not easy to take; his last grass victory was June, 2012, in an AP-1 Mile starter alw. event stalking the speed; wish he fired better on GP green during career.

Midnight Notes

57 days since the 2nd favored defeat in 3 starts; exits his lowest Beyer since September, 2012; has been working like we will see a much-better effort for this; last win was on wet turf noting he scored a 1-MIle March victory over the GP-firm lawn; hopes to make amends.

It's Time to Laugh

Has not won past 5.5F during career and his only race traveling at least 7.5F was an October fade for half today's claiming price tag; has won on the lead and stretching out for this would not be surprised to see him show a lot quicker foot from the gate today.

Et Al

Has won at longer distances than this but his last victory was at 2F shorter; faded when last seen off the 85-day absence hoping to improve stamina 2nd time off the bench; lost for half of today's price tag 2 back so class is challenged with much to prove still on GP green.

Holy Smoke

Cuts back to his shortest-distance test since the career debut; nearly a 1-year absence off the allowance key-race win on GP grass at longer defeating the runner-up, show and 6th-place finishers; they Beyered 89-82-81 in next-out GP-30K-claiming and AP-GP alw. wins; won here fresh December, 2012, but getting up in time to win it all is the concern.

Race 8

Edison

Don't care for Bernardini as a turf sire and this colt put in a rather even effort at first asking after being sent to post at nearly 20-1; tough to ignore the hefty price tag, and it wouldn't be a shock if he was ready for better at second asking, but prefer to side with others.

Notability

Two of his first three starts have been very sharp performances, and that includes his turf debut over this turf course in his most recent outing; he has a turf leaning pedigree and a repeat of his latest effort makes him tough to deal with.

V. E. Day

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 17% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this colt is a full to English Sunrise (2-13, 91k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 33k); this barn has been known to be live with a firster from time-to-time.

Danzig Storm

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal to race from a dam who was winless from three starts, and she didn't make a start over turf; he was well backed in his first two starts and he took a strong step forward along the Beyer Speed Figure scale against stakes competition in his latest outing.

Four More

Another representative of poor turf sire Bernardini signed on in this spot and this colt is going to need to step up his game over what he's shown us in his first two starts in order to contend; this colt is a 1/2 to Naples Bay (1-1, 24k over turf).

Hines

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam was a multiple group stakes winner racing in Germany while winning 5 of 12 starts for 367k, including 1 of 4 North American turf starts for 101k; this colt is a 1/2 to G3 winner Osidy (4-17, 297k, including 2 of 10 turf starts for 245k).

Golden Rum

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam was a G3 winner racing overseas while winning 3 of 11 turf starts for 102k; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Winchester (6-30, $1.6 million, including 5 of 18 North American turf starts for $1.5 million).

Jigsaw

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and G3 stakes placed dam won 4 of 8 starts for 114k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to Gold Minister (4-20, 93k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 49k); one of two firsters signed on in here for the Clement barn.

Dreamin of Betty

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to Spring Beauty (3-13, 33k over turf) and G1 winner Unbridled Command (6-11, 499k, including 6 of 10 turf starts for 498k).

Race 9

Ready to Act

It's worth noting the wagering support he attracted when facing a couple of today's rivals in his latest start, and before being too hard on him for coming up short as a heavy favorite, keep in mind that he did race close up to a hot early pace in a race that was kind to closers; the early pace in here looks like it will be much more comfortable, and that will be to his liking; must consider.

Jerry Love

Her synthetic surface and turf starts have been solid, but not sure that her best effort is strong enough to get the job done in this spot, and don't feel that the traffic she encountered in her latest start significantly impacted her final finish in any way; looking toward others.

Hardly

He hasn't run a bad race to date, and even though he might have benefited from a favorable early pace scenario in his latest outing, he was last approching the stretch and ran on well through the lane while having to negotiate a little bit of traffic, and he did gallop out strong with the winner.

Duff One

He was stakes placed racing over turf as a 2-year-old and he put together a strong run from off the pace in his latest start after taking some time off in a race that saw him break a little slow and carry a lot of ground around the second turn; this race might not shape up in his favor as much as it did last time, but he still commands respect as a top contender.

Party Now

Have to respect the improved performance she showed up with in her turf debut in her latest outing, and she is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Criminologist (8-16, 495k over turf), but it's fair to question the strength of competition in that maiden event, and she is the only one in here meeting winners for the first time.

Room Service

She's run well in all three of her starts to begin her career, and in a race that didn't shape up in her favor, she ran on well through the lane to finish right behind today's rival Lemon Point in her latest outing; she's out of a multiple graded stakes placed dam who won 4 of 15 turf starts for 223k, and she's a 1/2 to stakes winner Oscar Party (2-8, 106k over turf).

Super Fantasy

She recorded a couple of wins in her first two turf attempts, but as the competition has gotten tougher, she hasn't proven that she can handle horses of this caliber; she has the look of an outsider.

Lemon Point

Although she benefited from a comfortable trip and a favorable pace scenario, her first start with Lasix in her latest outing was a pretty impressive run, and really liked the way that she kicked away from the field at the top of the stretch; she commands her share of respect while going out for a top turf barn.

Race 11

El Jefe Grande

His best effort is right in line with what it might take to win this race, and even though this barn has been quiet at this meeting, it wouldn't be a shock to see him ready to give a good account of himself in his first start as a 4-year-old, and it does look like he has a couple of sharp workouts in tow.

At Large

He made it look easy in his career debut while going out for the Ziadie barn, but he took a big step backward at second asking after being claimed, and this appears to be a tough bunch for him to be meeting up with.

Sinatra

It's a big concern to see that he hasn't started since April 2012, but he did run well over this turf course when breaking his maiden two starts back, and it's interesting to see his connections looking to Velazquez in his return from a major injury; this is a barn that has been known to have them fit to run after a long layoff.

Steel Guitar

Although not considered a route, maybe 7 1/2f is a little too far for him, and this gelding is a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Midnight Lute (6-13, $2.6 million, no turf starts); winner from latest won next out at AP on 8/1 going 5 1/2f vs. 16k claimers with an 80 Beyer.

Greengrassofyoming

He looks like he got back on top of his game in his latest outing and he's given a solid account of himself in all three of his starts over this turf course; if he brings his 'A' game to the table, he can make a serious bid for the top prize.

Dr. Chase

He's the only one in here with three wins next to his name, but a case can be made for him being sharper over dirt than he is over turf; looking toward others, but willing to upgrade his chances if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Good Tickled

He's run some nice races over turf in his career but he might be better off at shorter distances as a late running sprinter around one turn; not going to be shocked if he proves to be capable in this spot, and his most recent workout looks sharp, but leaning toward others.

Happy Fella

Valando-homebred showed a new dimension in his latest start when coming up just a little short in a gate-to-finish bid in his latest outing and he's developed a nice level of consistency to his game; he looks like he fits right in at this level of competition.

Shatak

Lightly raced 4-year-old has run well in back-to-back starts to begin his career, and even though he meets up with winners for the first time today, he's shown enough to be taken seriously in this spot; like to see Castellano aboard again and this is a barn that does nice work with young/lightly raced turf horses.

Banzai Charge

Don't like to see that he's only made two starts to this point in his 5-year-old season but he's looked good in both of his races, and not only does this look like a reasonable spot for his return to action, but it does appear that he's been doing some decent work in the a.m. lately.

Stallwalkin' Dude

He showed ability early on but he might prefer racing over dirt than turf and it isn't like he has a pedigree that is crying out for grass; perhaps he'll be worth looking out for if rain hits the ground forcing this race to be moved to the main track.