Gulfstream: Closer Looks for January 15, 2014

Race 2

The Bookkeeper

Offspring of Wildcat Heir win their debuts at a 17% rate; unraced Tiznow dam has 3 winners from 3 foals to race, including two-time stakes winner Tiz the Argument (195K in earnings); worked twice this year but has taken a long time to get to the races.

Lori's Image

Figured to need that last race and a class drop should also suit her; concerned about that 0 for 12 record and the barn's history of running a lot but winning infrequently; but for those with faith, the price will be rich on a horse whose last-race figure was competitive with others.

Elsie's Image

Less appealing than her stablemate, Lori's Image, who is breaking to her inside; her top Beyer is a 35, and she even ran 4th of 5th in that 150-yard race that was contested in December; no thanks.

Purecraziluck

Though the sire wins at just a 10% clip, the connections hit at a high %; everything Calabrese runs must be regarded as a contender; dam went 10-1-1-2 and made 15K; dam's 3 foals to race are all multiple winners, and the best made 281K; above average drills for a first timer at this level; choice.

Sofialeonor

Rattled off three straight seconds over this track before a fourth last time out when returning from a layoff; raced a little further than what she prefers last out; cutting back to six furlongs suits her; Beyers of 53 or higher in 4 of her last 5 starts; like her best of those that have run.

Pretty Peggy Fu

Flashed more speed on the stretch out and with a better start; unfortunately she failed to keep it going and was a well beaten third as the chalk; picks up Javier and is returned to a sprint; she did well in such races here during the spring and early fall.

Late to the Party

Two starts do not inspire, though that last race was an improvement; she was competitive for five furlongs and tired in the late going; third place finisher returned to win; discouraged by a limited published worktab for a horse out for a month and a half. By Byron King

Race 4

Livin Peace

Inside posts have fared well at the meet and this one's speed and quick-starting ways make her a natural to be sent; showed enough to be stakes placed in April, but her 3 starts that followed that weren't good at all; gap in her works since coming to Florida (Nov. 30 to Jan. 4); expecting a fade.

Jessie Can Mambo

First start here was rather blah; she raced in the rear half of the field and passed only only tired horses; needs to make up 4 1/4 lengths on Best Behavior, who finished in front of her last time; perhaps she needed that start after being away since October; still get the impression she's better on turf and synthetic.

Western Charm

Heads south from Chicago after finishing the meet there with a runner-up finish; concerned that she has broken slowly in three straight races; this is a horse that used to run near the pace but she's had to turn into a closer after breaking sluggishly.

Nifty Shindig

Comes off three consecutive wins in New York, running in nice time, too; her fastest race came when she settled just off the leader - a key since the rail horse figures to come out gunning; steady works for Maker, who is having a great meet; choice despite the long time away.

Gene's Blue Moon

Here's another comebacker, and like uncoupled stablemate Livin Peace, the published worktab is lacking; her last recorded work was Dec. 12, over a month ago; that raises a fitness concern; 2nd and 5th previously when she returned from time away; main plus is that she ran her fastest races over this track last year.

Best Behavior

She's an honest competitor - a horse that has gone 9 straight races with top-3 finishes; just ran second at this level; the concern with her is that her two victories have come when she has been well clear at the eighth pole (5 lengths, 6 1/2 lengths); hard to imagine her getting such a clear lead over frontrunners Nifty Shindig and Livin Peace here; prefer to use on the bottom of the exotics

Illusional Sky

Even paced stalker is accustomed to running longer sprints and will likely fall 4 or more lengths behind here with a slight cutback in distance; needs to move forward first time on the dirt if she is to threaten; others in this lineup have run faster.

Wonderfully

Just ran well over this track but in a cheaper race; throw in that she was 0 for 12 last year, and this one seems best limited to the bottom of the gimmicks; rarely does she pass horses in the final furlong. By Byron King

Race 5

Molly Morgan

She's been a pretty consistent performer, and she seems likely to bounce back from a sub par performance after being given some time off since her latest start; however, she's going to need to improve over what she's shown in her four turf starts to get the better of this field.

Long Face

Grade 3 stakes placed mare owns the ability to step up with a competitive run against competition of this caliber and she's making her first start for a top turf barn; winner from latest won next out at BHP on 12/1 going 1m over turf in a G1 with a 97 Beyer, and 3rd finisher won next out at SA on 12/29 going 1 1/8m over turf in a G3 with a 92 Beyer.

Gamay Noir

A couple of her starts over turf have been sharp winning performances, and if she can reproduce the effort she showed up with just two races ago, she might be able to sneak her way into the mix against these; that said, prefer to look in another direction for the top spot.

Alaura Michele

She's a multiple stakes winner racing over turf have to respect the fact that she's making her first start for the Pletcher barn with Castellano getting the call; Castellano has won with 13 of 45 (29%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting; winner from latest won next out at AP on 6/29 going 7f in a G3 with an 89 Beyer.

Ana Luisa (BRZ)

She showed us that she has a good deal of ability to work with in her first start in America, and when seeing what she did in her two dirt starts racing in Brazil, it's probably a good idea to respect her as a top contender if this race has to be taken off the turf.

Dene Court

It looks like this multiple stakes winner can prove to be the dominant early speed in here but she does figure to feel some early pace pressure from Peggy Joyce; regardless, her turf form has been solid and she commands respect as a gate-to-finish threat.

Royal Fury

She has excellent positional speed and she seems likely to fall into a good spot through the opening stages behind the early leaders; however, her best effort was over a yielding turf course, and outside of that performance, her form hasn't been strong enough to give her a competitive look against these; leaning toward others.

Via Villaggio

To this point in her career, she's been at her best racing over dirt or a synthetic surface, and even though she gets some turf from the bottom of her pedigree, she's by a poor turf sire; winner from latest won next out at SA on 11/1 going 1 1/8m in a G1 with a 105 Beyer.

Triple Charm (GB)

One of two signed on in here for the Clement barn, and even though there's a long layoff in play, this is an outfit that can have one ready for action off of a long layoff like this, and Bravo gets a lot of live calls from this barn.

Giant Cats Eye

There are a few horses in this race who have some solid dirt form on their card, to but this G2 stakes placed filly will merit her share of respect based on the improved form she's displayed since being returned from a layoff two starts ago; this is a barn and rider that win a lot of races together.

Peggy Joyce

She's shown the ability to produce a pretty sharp mile over turf on her best day and she might be ready to give a good account of herself while going sprint-to-route for her second start back from a layoff; look for her to be sitting just off of the early speed of Dene Court early on. By Brian Pochman

Race 6

Sinorice

Bombed in the Claiming Crown Jewel, but there were some good ones in there and he was likely outclassed; is better suited to this race, a weak 35K; still, he couldn't win a starter at Parx two back and his last win came for 20K against N3Ls.

Isutalkintome

Uninspired efforts of late, admittedly in better company; even when beaten 5 1/2 lengths in the Jewel, he was never a significant threat; is reunited with Castellano, who rode him to victory here in March; narrow edge in a below-average, closely matched 35K claimer.

D'marin

Comeback effort was decent; he was in position and came up a little empty late; nevertheless, it was still his best effort since 2012; perhaps he is rounding back into top form again; needs to make up 1 3/4 lengths on Uptown Anthem, who finished in front of him last time out.

Uptown Anthem

Has just two wins to his credit, but has been in good form this meet with a pair of runner-up finishes; both Kaplan and Leyva have been unlucky during the winter meet with a high # of 2nds and 3rds, and this one has contributed to that; prefer to limit use to the bottom of the exotics.

Playing a Joke

Shaky recent form and now returning from a layoff going back to July; does have 12 career wins to his credit, and 8 of those came in 2012-2013; chance if he is ready for his absolute best off the bench, but few are after so long on the sidelines.

Megalith

Raced in a very tough first-level allowance/optional claimer and ran better than it appears; gives the impression of a horse that is better suited to sprinting than going a one-turn mile, but he is a 9-time overall winner and quick when at his best; upgrade chances on a wet track; he loves the slop.

Runyon Humor

This versatile horse can run on dirt, on turf, short and long; now he joins the barn of Buff Bradley off the claim after just missing second when third in a turf race Dec. 27; goes from a high percentage operation to a lower percentage one; so there is possibility for regression.

Where's the Baby

Lack of early speed is a clear strike against this one; his dull form is yet another negative; the good news is that he drops in class, and Dave Kassen is a dangerous longshot trainer, as noted by the positive ROIs in two of the three statistical categories listed at the bottom of the PPs. By Byron King

Race 7

Confident Lady

Margie's Wildcat 7 for 64 with debuters, 3 for 31 with first-time turfers; sire was out of the money twice; dam was unraced; this is her first to roll; wonder how high the expectations can be for this $4K purchase.

Lady Joyfull

Cosmonaut 1 for 6 with first-time turfers; Grade 3 winning sire earned over $1.2 million on turf, lost only start at 2; 3 for 12 dam earned $50K, never turfed; this is her first to roll; must be given a look on the drop alone.

Starship Journey

Considering the class jump and the big field in last, this gal ran huge; dam took debut at 2 on dirt, lost next 6; this is her first to roll; respect.

When We Act

Giant's Causeway about 10% with firsters in an 646-horse sample, about 10% with first-time turfers in a 545-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2 as a turf monster; dam was unraced; lone half sis won once on dirt, never turfed; hard to be overly positive about this form.

Rogue Lady

At least she has a feel of the course and she caught sizzling splits; 1 for 20 dam lost 6 times on grass; this is her first to roll; this miss looks live.

Thinkofyou

Touch Gold about 7% with first-time grass runners in a 329-horse sample, about 9% with first-timers in a 618-runner sample; sire won debut, thrived going long, earned $1.6 million, never tried grass; dam's lone win was a dirt route, she was 0 for 4 on grass; 1 of 5 siblings won; that runner took 3 dirt routes in minor leagues, was third in best turf result; 3rd finisher in last took a maiden $16K seller next out and the place horse took a $25K maiden claimer in next; backers have to hope the blinks wake her up.

Claque

Exchange Rate about 14% with firsters in an 427-horse sample, about 12% with first-time turfers in a 277-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, took G2 Tom Fool, was 6 for 15, earned nearly $500K, won twice on grass; dam was unraced; lone half sis out of the money in only try; love the spacing of the drills.

Tina's Coming

Harlan's Holiday about 14% with firsters in an 473-horse sample, about 12% with first-time turfers in a 289-runner sample; sire won 4 times at 2, banked $3.6 million, never turfed; dam out of the money twice; 1 of 4 siblings won; that runner took 3 dirt sprints, was 2nd once on grass; shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered.

Cajun Sunrise

Northern Afleet about 13% with debuters in a 595-runner sample, about 10% of his first-time turfers in a 332-horse; sire won juvenile debut at Del Mar, earned over $600K, was zero for 5 on grass; dam 0 for 9; all 3 siblings won; 2 banked over $170K, all tried grass to no avail; drills ideally spaced.

Florida Sun

Belgravia 2 for 19 with debuters, 1 for 8 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, took a Grade 3, was dirt only, banked nearly $130K in 5 starts; dam took one dirt sprint, lost only grass try; 3 of 5 siblings won; 1 took debut at 2, the one that tried grass was 2nd in best turf moment; could need experience.

Exclusive Dani

Exclusive Quality 5 for 54 with first-time turfers, 17 for 104 with debuters; stakes winning 3 for 4 sire was second in only try at 2, never turfed, banked almost $100K; dam was unraced; all 3 siblings won; none tried grass, one banked over $100K; in for $20K less more than purchase price.

Henry's Song

Henrythenavigator 4 for 45 with first-time turfers, 2 for 31 with debuters; sire won juvenile debut on grass, took multiple Group 1s on turf, was 2nd in Raven's Pass BC Classic win, banked over $2.3 million; dam won once on dirt, never turfed; this is her first to roll; blowout on Saturday should have her on her toes.

Shindig Inthe City

Indygo Shiner 6 for 101 with debuters, 2 for 47 with first-time turfers; sire won at 2, took a Grade 3, won twice on grass, banked nearly $450K; 4 for 15 dam banked nearly $100K, was grass only; 3 of 4 siblings won; 2 won on grass including stakes winner and over $200K earner Second Street City; capable barn due to get rolling.

More Than Special

Miss adds blinks for the cut back; 2 for 9 dam was third in best turf moment; all 4 siblings won; 2 won on grass, one banked nearly $135K; would tread lightly here. By Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Dreamlicious

Draws the fence for the rise back to this level after holding second money in her return to the local main track; filly didn't have much to say on the green 2 starts back and her most recent solid dirt try came over the wet going; expect she'll be close early, but don't think she'll be around at the finish against these.

Pixie Devil

She's only run 6 times and will make just her second start since the summer in this spot; filly understandably came up short late while finishing behind one of these first time at the level; filly has solid tactical foot and the move inside should have her in the thick of this one from the outset; contender.

Princess Malia

Six time winner drops to this level after failing to capitalize on quick fractions in the restricted stake last out; mare hasn't been on her best game since the summer, however, and boasts no interim morning moves as of this writing to suggest she's set to move forward; have to side with others on the win end.

Wide Eyed Wonder

Makes her first start for a new outfit after being given a little extra time off the fade at this trip in her first crack at the level; filly did run big despite trouble at this trip in the fall but she ran several lengths faster in that one than anything else she'd run before; given her fresh history, we'll look elsewhere.

Private Ensign

Filly has hit the board in each of her 4 dirt spins including 2 wins over the local main track; she took on some good ones last winter and spring and did run well in her debut so she's capable of firing off drills; she's been working regularly for her return and the barn's top pilot will take the call; expecting she'll return running and prove dangerous.

Liberated

She jumped up with a career best effort when the hood was removed on the surface switch at this trip at Churchill last time; she'll make her local debut against a better bunch than she's been facing, but that last out score was pretty good so maybe she's just turned the corner and is capable of getting back to the effort; consider.

Eastern Atlantic

Canadian shipper stretches out for her first start on dirt while being offered for the optional tag in this spot; barn is profitable of late with its fresh runners and maybe this beaten last out chalk finds herself closer to top at this trip; maybe she holds on for a share at a price that should be right.

Topazio

Got up for second money in a 2 turn heat moved to the main track across town; she settles for a lot of minor awards and hasn't seen the winner's circle in a long time; have to limit her use to underneath in exotics in this one.

Arriba Anna

Outside drawn filly just missed in her first crack at this level last month; barn moves them forward second back from the break and this gal has been pretty good since they moved her to the main track; her last out pilot opts elsewhere and her lack of lick puts her at a bit of a disadvantage from a tactical standpoint, but she's the one they'll have to fear in the lane. By Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Ex Pirate

He shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Lincoln Zephyr and this gelding is eligible to be ready to deliver his sharpest performance to date while making his first start as a 3-year-old; Leparoux has won with 2 of 5 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Tappintothemusic

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this gelding is a have two Mission Viejo (3-11, 113k over turf); like what he did at first asking and have to respect that he's making his first start for Walder with Castellano aboard.

Ack Rider

He didn't break well in his career debut and he'll appreciate moving to an inside post after starting from post 14 in his career debut; he hails form a top turf barn and he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Proudinsky (6-23, $1.3 million racing over turf in North America).

Sorocaima

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, including four turf starts; he gets Lasix and moves to turf but he was outrun throughout after going to post at over 140-1 in his career debut.

Skylar Bleu

He showed a little something in his turf debut over this turf course two races ago, but he was beaten by today's rival Mesa Way in that race, and it would've been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing.

Valid Concept

Late running type has had his chances to show us what he can do, including six starts over turf, and it looks like a minor a ward is probably the ceiling against these; note that he finished behind today's rival Lincoln Zephry in his latest start.

Mesa Way

This gelding figures to be forwardly placed through the opening stages but he is going to need to show more through the final furlong if he's planning on seeing his number posted on top after this one is run.

Legislation

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal to race from a dam who won once from 11 starts for 15k, and she didn't make a turf start; winner from debut won next out at GP on 11/9 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with a 77 Beyer, and 3rd finisher won next out at GP on 9/28 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 59 Beyer, but was dq'd and placed second.

Lador Vador

His one start over turf was his best performance to date but that level of performance isn't going to be anywhere near strong enough to threaten the top contenders in this one; he has the look of an outsider.

Desenhado

Half-brother to G1 winner in Japan, Good Ba Ba, took a step in the right direction in his turf debut at second asking, but he did finish behind a couple of today's rivals in that race, and he's going to have to show more to get the better of this field.

Condestable

Limited available data on sire with regard to his first-time and turf starters, but he won once from 10 starts for 60k, including 0-for-2 over turf; dam won once from three starts, and she didn't make a turf start; turf is a question, but her form did improve with blinkers coming off two starts back.

Lincoln Zypher

His latest effort is on the level of what it make take to win this race, but a favorable early pace scenario helped him along that day, and that level of performance hasn't been the norm for him.

Station Commander

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race to draw in and he can add some fuel to the early pace fire if he gets to go; however, he's going to need to be ready to take his game to another level to get the better of this field. By Brian Pochman

Race 10

Full Moon's Back

Makes just his 3rd start in over 1 year; is eligible to improve today off latest; today marks the 2nd time back off an almost 9-month absence; his sire is 18-for-212 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal from the dam who was unraced; projects as the one to catch with Where's the Bay and Pirate's Vow; the 3-back runner-up finisher posted an 84 Beyer speed figure taking a GP-optional-claimer next out.

Where's the Bay

33 days since posting a career-low Beyer on a synthetic surface; projects as a major pace presence with Full Moon's Back and Pirate's Vow; his only turf start was a 7th-place fade in August facing the show runner who Beyered 82 in his next-out WO allowance victory.

Wire Funds

47%-winning 1st-off-the-claim trainer re-purchased him off his 3rd win in 4 races the latest a new Beyer speed figure Top which was a great sign in his 1st GP-grass start; late runner gets a good pace flow to rally into saving ground as the 1st two posts both have strong-gate speed; the 2-back winner repeated in a GP-OPC event with a 94 Beyer; he beat the 3-back runner-up finisher a 77 Beyer-MED-OPC next-out victor; the pick.

It's Time to Laugh

The last-win rider takes Wire Funds with more than 7 lengths to make up on Didn't Take It from latest non-impact defeat; receives a positive 4-pound weight swing for this; owns the right style to win this closing from off the pace in a race with some serious pace signed on.

Statutorial

1-for-12 record since posting his GP-firm turf win in March the only time he's ever raced over today's grass course; in his GP grass win he stalked the speed which is the same type of trip projected for this; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 99-96 in next-out GP-Grade 3 stakes and OPC wins.

Ari's Pride

Dull form since claimed off the February loss on GP grass a surface he seeks his 1st-ever exacta finish over; while some of these love this surface he has much to prove locally; won on wet turf which is why latest was disapponting with more than 7 lengths to make up on Wire Fund while receiving a 2-pound positive weight swing for today's rematch.

Macho Coach

Exits his lowest Beyer since a GP-dirt defeat at 1 Mile January, 2012; the 2-back show runner Beyered 79 in his next-out CD-25K-claiming victory; finished 8th and 9th in 2-GP-grass defeats both at 8.5F; would be a complete shocker.

Didn't Take It

Win rider from last takes Wire Funds for this; exits his best Beyer since posting a career-best speed figure January, 2013, on GP grass at 1 Mile; owns the right style for this but picks up 4 pounds off the win to race with his heaviest impost since a last-place-June-dirt defeat.

Spiro Tune

Lasix for the 1st time in last 2 races did not produce the desired improvemed form; sire is 2-for-45 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 6-0-0-1-grass dam (4K); all-or-nothing career with 2 wins and 8 off-the-board finishes; his best game is stalking the speed which seems like that could be a winning trip here; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 86 in his next-out CRC-16K claiming win; the 4-back runner-up posted a 78 speed figure taking a next-out CRC-OPC event.

Pirates Vow

When he doesn't make the lead like last 2 races he does not fire at all; has Full Moon's Back and Where's the Bay to beat from the gate today; exits his lowest Beyer since October, 2010, on HAW-turf at 5.5F; latest was not a good sign when making his 1st-ever-GP turf start; posted a field-best speed figure July, '11, gate-to-wire in an AP-synthetic surface 5F-18K-claiming event.

Thomas Hill

Today is the shortest-distance test of his career; 55 days since claimed by a 9%-win trainer with this angle; the DQd winner from last Beyered 83 in his next-out AQU-allowance victory; the 3-back show runner posted an 88 speed figure in his next-out LRL-OPC victory; will be taking a wait and see approach. By Art Gropper