Gulfstream: Closer Looks for February 23, 2014

Race 1

Seduccion

Would have to be scratched Friday from a 1 Mile-CRC dirt 16K-maiden claimer to race here; stalking trip for latest did not produce her best result when defeated by Runaway Bridle again; picks up 10 pound to race with her highest-weight assignment ever for a 5%-winning GP-jockey-trainer combo since 2013; others appeal more.

Chuckle of the Day

Lone-other Mile start was a turf fade; was screaming out for more yardage in latest sprint when showing zero-gate speed then passing a few when rallying mildly; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 49 Beyer speed figure in her next-out GP-$12,500-maiden-claiming win.

Runaway Bridle

Knocking on the door for the diploma earner posting back-to-back Beyer-career Tops defeating many of these in recent races; logical contender lost to Hugh Achoo in latest and hopes someone goes after that speedster in the early stages to help her late punch to turn the tables.

Malala's Diary

Form is as up-and-down as you can get; 2 back with 1st Lasix produced a field-best Beyer speed figure then in latest finished the last of 12 with a zero Beyer; lone dirt start was dull but drops to her lowest-price tag ever seeking answers.

Hugh Achoo

Is coming into this event better than ever posting back-to-back Beyer speed figure-career Tops; is the one to catch and beat here while 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; any runner loose on an easy lead is a dangerous rival; her high-percentage maiden-claiming trainer adds to the appeal.

Grimoire

Been unable to race back to her debut-career best Beyer; she has not raced past 7F yet; sire took the Kentucky Derby and Belmont stakes; dam did not compete past 6.5F; the runner-up and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 49-45 in next-out GP-TAM $12,500-maiden-claiming wins.

African Spring

Just 2 races so still has some upside although beating 3 runners combined from first pair makes her a tough call; in with her lightest-weight assignment ever for an icy trainer off to an 0-for-11 exacta-less start at the current-GP meet; would be a complete shocker if she made any impact here.

Jill's Reflection

Stamina was her downfall in last when defeated by this same group in her return to the 1-Mile distance; the good news is she posted her 2nd-best Beyer ever; the only exacta finish of career occurred on a wet-main track she is doing the ran dance for this.

Rachel's Ticket

Only-show finish was on Calder dirt while no match for Runaway Bridle 2 back in her only other route race; twice has raced with lighter assignments than 112 pounds all without success; best race is when she sits back early then makes one run.

Broadway Secret

Has not raced past 6.5F yet; stamina has been missing from her sprint losses; sire went 4-0-1-0 in dirt routes; dam won at 10F on dirt; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 46 in a next-out GP-$12,500-maiden-claiming win; the 2-back show runner graduated next out in a GP-$12,500-maiden claimer with a 39 speed figure. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Red Brunette

Steps up in her first off the claim after running away from some of these in a pretty powerful off the pace performance last month; new barn has had recent luck with this type first time under their care and there does look to be some pace to run at here; dangerous repeat threat.

Liberty Fuze

Showed a new dimension in settling early from the inside draw in her first off the barn's claim, subsequently showing a solid kick to run them down a few weeks back; filly was beaten chalk behind some of these when tiring from her pace efforts 2 back; there is other speed in here so maybe Castellano again looks to take hold of her early, but at least we know he has options and the price should be ok; consider.

Quick as a Bunny

Lightly raced filly gets off the fence after rallying to get to a length of the winner in her return from the freshening while tackling the level for the initial time; barn hasn't had a great stand, but they hit at a decent clip second back from the break and there should be some pace to run at in this spot; looks like the one to hold off.

Two Step Flor

Switches to a bug for the rise back to this level after tiring from her pace efforts to finish behind a couple of these last time out; filly's game is speed and there are a few foes in her who like to gun it early as well so she'll need to shake them off before preparing to hold off the closers for a barn that's yet to get on track at the stand; faces a tough task.

Magic Lily

Finished behind some of these at the level 2 back before getting up for third money in a troubled run won by one of these earlier in the month; gray isn't particularly fast and will need to step things up several lengths to threaten today's foes; prefer others.

Tex Appeal

Last out graduate needed the drop to claimers to get the job done in her first start of the local season but she was game in the effort and now she'll tackle winners; like the tracking speed she showed in that one as it could help give her run on the latecomers here and Rosario will stick with her on the class rise today for a barn that excels with its runners going second off the break; with some time to get over her last we'll give her the upset nod today.

Yes Mz Olga

Wired softer on the drop in her local return and now she'll move to the outside slot for the rise to this level; field's highest last out Beyer earner looks to be back on her game and maybe she's able to clear this bunch and set up shop, but the presence of other speed means she's going to have to work for it here; contender. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Donegal Hall

Several angles to consider for this colt: beaten favorite, the powerful drop from special weights, and a shorter distance to tackle here; he ran well from the fence 2 back and should be on or near the lead this afternoon with an alert getaway.

Stowe

Newcomer hails from Dunkirk who won 393K and whose offspring have scored in 3 of 48 initial races; the dam won 3 of 21 and 68K; among the winning siblings is 133K earner Our Year; moderate work tab on view.

Quarton Lake

Adds blinkers after showing only a bit of early speed first out; the sire won multiple G2 stakes and 1.14 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 38K earner Hold'em Hustler.

Sea Zar Run

Keeps earning checks and he was jammed up between rivals in his latest run; might be better off being reserved off the lead for a change and then unleash a middle move; seems worth trifecta inclusion no matter what the riding strategy chosen.

Supreme Privilege

Claimed consecutively, he turned in a solid showing when well backed last month; his sire won a couple of G2s and 626K while the dam was without a tally in 10 attempts; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Seoul Bullet (KOR)

Stays at the same level following the recent purchase and the trainer has done very well with fresh claims; the gelding may not have liked being down inside in the latest try and now draws a favorable stalking post; can secure a good spot.

Krz Brew

Never recovered from a slow break in his first run at Woodbine but that was against far better stock; his sire won 8 of 24 starts and 2.87 million; the dam won 3 of 5 and 67K; among the many winning siblings is 1.11 million earner Krz Ruckus.

I Feel Great

Interesting possibility on the drop to this grade and the fact that he was near a strong pace in the last venture; his sire won a G3 and 462K while the dam won 2 of 6 and 46K; sib to 109K earner Max Cooper. - Jim Kachulis

Race 4

She's Spooky

Stakes placed filly sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and she's likely going to look to be taking it right at this field after breaking from the rail post; however, she might not care for the added distance that she sees today, and she does figure to feel some early pace pressure from the outside.

Byrama (GB)

She's a G1 winner on synthetic, and she's multiple graded stakes placed racing over turf; like the idea of her getting back over turf for the first time in just over a year, and she's making her first start for a top turf barn with a go-to rider assigned.

Ready Signal

Stakes placed mare has been known to outrun her odds, and she ran well in her latest start when chasing today's rival She's Spooky to the finish; prefer to look in another direction for the top spot, but not going to be shocked if she lands a spot underneath in the exotics.

Wholelottashakin

She just missed taking down a G3 when shipped to Tampa for her latest start and like to see that this barn has been putting live horses on the track at this meeting after having a very quiet 2013; that said, others entice more.

Alaura Michele

Multiple stakes winner made her first start for this barn a winning one in her latest outing and Castellano has won with 32 of 90 (36%) mounts for this barn at the current stand; a top try is a must for her to come out on top against these, but can't count her out of it.

Toasting

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won once from 29 starts for 13k, including 0-for-3 over turf; turf is a question, but a couple of her recent starts have been very sharp performances; runner up from latest won next out here on 2/16 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with a 98 Beyer.

Street Gem

She's going to need to show up with an effort that earns her a career best Beyer Speed Figure while making her first start since July to get the job done in this spot, but she has a strong turf pedigree, and really like the way her game steadily improved after being placed over turf as a 3-year-old.

Celestial Kitten

She's multiple graded stakes placed racing over turf, but her recent form hasn't been her best, and even though she goes from one high win percentage barn to another, this barn hasn't been having one of their stronger meetings; note that she's 0-for-7 over this turf course.

Angel's South

A few of her recent starts have been her best, but she's probably going to need to see a slow early pace develop to have her best chance against these, and that doesn't seem likely to happen for her.

Long Face

Late running mare ran well when finishing close behind today's rival Alaura Michele in her latest start and it looks like she'll see a much more closer friendly early pace scenario in this spot; going to look for her to be putting in a bold stretch bid while making just her second start for the Clement barn. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Be Brave

Life and death for that last win at CD, has not been able to duplicate that effort; pushed into the stakes 3 back and poor efforts like that can take a toll; runner has limited speed so backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls apart.

Mr. O'Leary

He showed ability from Day One, is in good hands, and like the way he came away at crunch time in last; it's never simple to beat winners right back but there are not monsters in this race and this guy seems to have figured it out; don't sell too short.

Red Hot Randy

He's had a ton of chances to break through in this league; decent try in last but he has never finished in first; he was 2nd a nose in 2012 but got an assist from the stewards; another slice?

Belvin

Connections thought enough of him to try the stakes last spring but he has only been in the money twice since the lone victory; he's been on the dull side for several races here and has a long way to go to match top kin and over $500K earner Bahamian Squall; must hurry.

Parise

Stalked to no avail in the debut, wanted no part of the route game, won the Canadian finale with gusto under hand ride in the short field; like the spacing of the return drills and note he extended at every call in the win; may like it here.

Squadron A

Hung wide in the last pair, a slightly better trip and this runner could make some noise; all of his races against winners have been decent, he drill sharply 8 days ago and will benefit by a contested pace; must be left in the hopper.

Imperial Czar

Drawn right, tough at this level, he won in professional manner in last and should be tough right back; runner was far from disgraced in the stakes two back and he has a pleasing tactical speed style; repeat well within the realm. - Brian Mulligan

Race 6

True Blue Nation

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from one start, and she didn't make a start over turf; this looks like a tough spot for her to try turf for the first time, but she showed up with a decent performance in her first start as a 3-year-old and her first start with Lasix.

Super Sky

Half-sister to multiple graded stakes placed Dyna's Lassie (4-12, 182k over turf) looked good in her first start as a 3-year-old in her latest outing and she finished in front of a few rivals that are signed on in here; Castellano has won with 32 of 90 (36%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Danalin

Her three starts over turf have been solid performances and it's interesting to see the improved early speed she displayed in her first start wearing blinkers over a sloppy main track here in her most recent start; Prado has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Norcarl

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 6 of 16 starts for 336k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 67k; she was much improved at second asking with the addition of blinkers and she's making her first start for a top turf barn with John V. getting the call.

Melora

She shows up for a high win percentage barn that has been live at this meeting, but she's going to have to produce a much stronger performance if she's to get the better of these in her first attempt against winners.

Miss Arrangement

She's done little wrong in her first two starts and this 270k purchase is plenty eligible to have more to show us; she finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Super Sky in her turf debut in her latest outing, and she's a 1/2 to stakes placed Liquidity Trap (4-13, 137k over turf) and G2 winner Honorable Dillon (3-10, 224k over turf).

Artillery Punch

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; she is by a top turf sire, but she must take a major step forward in her first turf start and her first attempt against winners in order to contend.

Whispering

She's run well in back-to-back starts prior to this, and like to see what this barn has been doing at this meeting, but this does appear to be a pretty tough test for her first start against winners.

Who's in Town

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and G3 stakes placed dam won 2 of 8 starts for 84k, including 2 of 7 turf starts for 84k; this filly is a 1/2 to Campaign Vows (2-6, 32k over turf); she's unofficially a G2 winner and feel that she has enough turf in her pedigree to respect her chances in her first turf test.

Shanagarry

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; since tiring in her career debut, her form has been solid, but turf is a question, and she might prefer distances shorter than today's 7 1/2f assignment.

Analog Girl

She's making her first start against winners after beating a field of 75k MCL's in her latest outing, but she wasn't helped at the post position draw, and it's probably worth noting the presence of Lezcano aboard another in here.

Lady Paradime

There's some respectable dirt form lined up in this race and this filly will have to find a way to take her game to another level if she's planning on threatening the top contenders; respect the presence of Lopez, but others entice more.

Risque Reality

She finished behind today's rival Who's In Town in her latest start, but she certainly didn't disgrace herself that day, and she's eligible to be ready for an improved performance while making her second start as a 3-year-old; 360k purchase can't be ignored if she gets to run in this spot. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

I Am Now

Rider from last goes to Easton Arch; snuck through the claim box 5 week ago; is back up to the MSW level 1st-time Johnny V a 31% win rider for Pletcher at GP since 2013; longest-distance test ever while working well; figures for the same-stalking trip she received in last then hopes to come up big in deep stretch; the one to beat.

Hunting Hill

Stalked the field off the 92-day absence then was gaining ground too late; hopes not to bounce off that fresh effort back in just 29 days for this; she raced on the lead 2 back and figuers part of the pace here; working well on dirt suggesting another big race is on the way; speedy contender for win honors.

Remebel

Sire is 29-for-376 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-0-0-0 grass dam; only 1 foal raced on grass full-Bluecam is 2-0-0-0 on the lawn; blinkers off is a 43% win angle for her trainer but not easy to back with confidence entering with a career-declining Beyer speed figure pattern.

Showing

1-for-36 trainer with 1sters since 2013 is noted; sire is 4-for-24 with 1st-turf starters; 4-for-43 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-0-0-0 grass dam who was a Grade 3-stakes winner (2-for-9 overall, 181K); her only other foal to race is 3-0-0-0 Berlin Beauty who did not race on grass.

Mexican Miss

Off the bench with 1st blinkers which is a high-win percentage angle for her trainer; the workouts do not bowl you over while adding distance likely can help the cause due to her lack of speed from the gate; the debut runner-up graduated next out in an ELP-MSW event with a 59 Beyer; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Easton Arch

Has never raced this far but was screaming out for more distance in the USA debut while the sizzling-GP rider lands here for the 1st time (22% wins for the trainer since 2013)when seemingly having another option; working like she is ready to fire a huge one today.

Tiz a Dynaformer

Away since a solid-debut effort; she produced the field's best Beyer speed figure when outracing her 17-1 odds for a trainer not known to win 1st-time out but owns super-win numbers with fresh runners; the final yards off the long layoff are the issue but if moves forward 2nd-time out the rest are likley racing for 2nd money; the pick.

Angle

Sire is 108-for-792 with 1st-turf starters; 88-for-875 with 1st-time starters; is out of a stakes-placed dam (6-for-19, 154K) who won her 2nd and 3rd-career starts; she went 1-0-0-0 on grass producing 2 winners from 3 other foals to race including 3-for-19 turfer Demarcation (166K).

Teeth of the Tiger

Class leap after 2 maiden claimers; slight 2nd-time out Beyer improvement however in some cases a runner's 2nd start is a massive-move forward; was screaming out for more distance in 1st pair and gets it here; defeated the show runner in her debut who graduated next out in a CRC-32K-maiden claimer with a 55 Beyer.

Jazil's Dream

98 days away for a 9%-winning fresh trainer; middle moved in latest favored fade; new rider is 0-for-12 for the trainer since 2013; seems a well-timed ride is needed and gets a patient pilot who hopes to overcome another ground-losing post position.

Duchess of Greeley

Working well for a trainer 0-fo-35 to start the GP meet; sire is 0-for-19 with 1st-turf starters; 4-for-45 with 1st-time starters; dam won her WO-MSW debut at 1 Mile on less-than-firm grass; she only raced on turf going 1-for-2 (22K); her only other foal to race is Grade 2-SW All Star Heart (6-for-21, 465K) who won 6-of-15 on the lawn (430K). - Art Gropper

Race 8

Eilatan

It's a little interesting to see that Castellano took the call in her turf debut in her latest outing, but he's aboard another in this event, and it would have been nice to have seen her show more that day.

Aunty Pearl

This barn has made the most of limited starters at this meeting and they've been known to do some of their best work with young/lightly raced turf horses; not going to be surprised if this miss shows up with an improved performance at second asking.

Spring Spirit

Sire wins with approximately 19% of his turf starters and he's 3-for-31 (10%) with his starters trying turf for the first time, and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes winner Shezospiritual (7-31, 276k, including 4 of 19 turf starts for 182k); runner up from latest won next out at Tam on 12/28 going 7f vs. MSW rivals with a 56 Beyer.

Mountain Sprite

Three of her first five starts have been respectable performances, and she might not have cared for wearing blinkers two starts ago; third-place finisher from latest won next out here on 2/5 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 35k MCL's with a 59 Beyer.

Candy's Lady

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this filly is a 1/2 to Mean Reversion (2-18, 46k, including 1 of 7 turf starts for 23k); not wild about what she's shown since a promising career debut and her connections will hope that a move to turf and the addition of blinkers can help.

Love My Empire

She's out of a G2 winning dam who won 2 of 9 starts for 162k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 125k, and this miss is a 1/2 to Dutyhonorcountry (3-37, 60k, including 3 of 11 turf starts for 36k); she's a good fit at this level of competition and she's making her first start for Ramsey and Maker after a claim; Castellano has won with 19 of 41 (46%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Slews Golden Rule

She showed up with her sharpest performance to date in her latest outing and she's a 1/2 to G3 winner Globetrotter (3-6, 295k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 104k) and stakes winner Slew's Exchange (5-12, 188k, including 4 of 10 turf starts for 166k); she has her share of appeal while making her firs start for a new barn after a claim, especially with Rosario aboard.

Quarla

She didn't make much of an impression in her career debut after going to post at nearly 50-1 and she will need to show up with a much sharper performance to threaten the top contenders in here.

Pekinesa

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 6 starts for 54k, and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Only Exception (3-18, 49k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 22k).

Successful Sweep

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 6 of 17 starts for 318k, including 0-for-2 over turf; she's by a strong win-early sire and a poor start didn't help her in her career debut as a 2-year-old.

Charanga

The move to turf seemed to agree with this miss in her latest start and the 61 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for that performance represents the best last race figure in this field; it's interesting to see Prado taking over for this.

Justanewkidintown

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from eight starts, including three turf starts; firster shows up with a barn that can be live with one going long over turf at first asking.

Starship Sassy

Circular Quay has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but it's tough to count this filly out of it against these when seeing that all four of her turf starts have been in the neighborhood of what it might take to get the job done in this spot.

Shakesperian Dream

She was claimed away from the Clement barn from her latest start, but this miss has a fine pedigree for turf, and she's looked pretty good racing from off the pace in her first two starts; the outside post shouldn't bother her as she's likely going to drop right out of it form the break and gear up for one late run.

Evidently

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 4 of 14 starts for 150k, including 4 of 13 turf starts for 147k; this filly is a 1/2 to Presumptive (5-20, 140k, including 4 of 18 turf starts for 124k). - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Madame Giry

Cozy slot, she's a proven stakes performer and she was hung 6 wide in the Tampa finale; miss has a penchant for finding the wire and she is adept at this distance; she'll need help up front but if she gets an honest pace, miss should be picking them off one by one late.

Bounding Bi

Runner had a rough 2013 until winning the $100K optional 2 back; best when sent along but she may have to be hard used to make the top here; she has lost ground in the lane in her last pair; lean toward watching a local effort.

Cor Cor

Must respect her speed but there are others with designs on the lead; the last win came on the synthetic and miss may prefer a little give to the ground; note the win on the yielding course at Fair Grounds; will at least muddle the pace.

Flower Spell

Note that lone stakes winner came on the synthetic; she did hook a nice runner in last but was never really involved; another that has some semblance of speed, but if she is gunned she could pay the price of being dueled into submission; needs a rebound run.

Believe in Charlie

Game in the win last time but that is a far cry from beating a field like this; she has not had any luck in her stakes tries but the win over the surface can't hurt; could see her sitting a stalk and rally journey today, but she will have to really step up to the plate to be around at the end.

Queen's Award

She may have just been overmatched in Graded company last time; she did beat a fully subscribed field for the last win and miss does have a nice turn of late foot when in the mood; there is plenty of pace here to help promote the kick, so backers have to hope she finds a lane to rally into in time.

Runway Ready

Off a career Beyer, she is coming to the race at the top of her game but will get the acid test here; it took her time to figure it all out but considering how she won off the layoff in last, one could build a case she has just matured; like the way she was coming away late; too sharp to ignore.

Allwewantforxmas

Still eligible for an N3X fray, miss has had no luck in her stakes tries and although she ran well in last, this is a whole new ballgame; the last time she won on grass it was against $25K claimers and this group is a different breed; would be careful here.

My Due Process

It's been a rough go of it for this runner; she won a stakes early in her career but was an ice cube on the toteboard last time and the fans were right on the money; tough to take a positive stance off the last effort.

Giulio's Jewel

Took the biggest drop in the game into the maiden claimers ranks for the first win; miss was solid in the Laurel finale but she can back to earth in a thud in her stakes debut last time; miss was in striking distance, but had nothing in the tank when the real racing started; not sure this Jewel will shine today. - Brian Mulligan