Gulfstream: Closer Looks for February 21, 2014

Race 1

Tri Polar

Senior citizen is still grinding it out at 8; he wants to beat ya and got a boost when the 10/4 winner beat $6250 sellers next out with a 72 Beyer; like fact he has natural speed but doens't need the lead to win; repeat well within the realm.

Kanavayen

Even on his best days, runner has a tendency to get late; he has to prove he can win away from Calder and he has put on the brakes quickly in the last pair; speed inside and outside of him here; not sure race sets up all that great for him.

Grand Jetsetter

Toss the shore races and the form brightens; note show horse in lsat was over 3 clear; he brings a nice stalking style to the table and Rosario got a chance to figure out what's under the hood last time; respect.

Code Proof

Can't be thrilled with the local slate; pushed along in last, but he be better served settling and kicking like he did in the last victory; trainer has a nice eye for a claim; don't sell too short.

Megalith

Face it, some claims don't pan out; hence the drop; considering the cut back runner could be left with a lot of work to do late; 12/13 place horse cashed next out in a $65K Calder stakes with a 105 Beyer; backers have to hope the drop shakes him up.

Newspaper Boy

Gelding may have disliked the off going in last; he still was 4 clear; 1/20 winner repeated in a $10K optional with a 73 Beyer; must find a way to turn the tables on the rail among others.

Fairy Cat

He's beaten tougher, but it was ages ago; 9/18 show horse cashed next out in a $25K N2L, lost next few; one angle to think about: the last win came in a second off the layoff effort. - Brian Mulligan

Race 2

Charlie the White

2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle and he has plenty of room to move forward off latest 1st time racing without blinkers where outrun throughout; new rider means the 4th different jockey in as many races which is not a good-win angle.

Sin Mirar Atras

Drops in claiming price for the 3rd straight start off the 40K victory in December; the 2-back winner repeated in a GP-35K-claimer with a 67 Beyer; gets a weight break off recent losses while he needs to break sharper from the gate noting his 3-back career-best Beyer was a stalking trip.

Son of Sparta

43 days idle while getting a major-class reduction seeking answers off 4 consecutive double-digit length defeats; dull since the DEL-summer maiden breaker at longer; the winner from last repeated with a 67 Beyer taking a 35K claimer.

Dreaming of Andy A

Projects to battle Hearty Congrats for the lead; massive 2nd-time out Beyer regression off the debut win when claimed; can blame the wet track or the new condtioner for the last-place fade; drops below the original purchase price seeking answers; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Cocoanut Row

Filly faces the boys; the win rider takes Sin Mirar Atras off the graduation score noting her 2 best Beyers have been in Mile-GP dirt races; had to like how she stalked the pace in latest and should get a good setup here with Dreaming of Andy A and Hearty Congrats doing battle for the lead.

Hearty Congrats

Try to catch me; he has not raced past 6F yet; sire took a Grade 2 stakes at 8.5F on dirt; winless dam went 0-for-3 in dirt routes; posted a field-best Beyer speed figure when defeating the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 73 in his next-out GP-16K-claiming win; beat the 3-back show runner who won next out in a GP-$12,500-maiden claimer with a 61 speed figure.

Macarron

1 of 2 runners to enter right off the maiden breaker; he owns a better Beyer than the other recent graduate filly Cocoanut Row; 32 days away for a 1-for-12 fresh trainer but he was that fresh winner scoring latest with 37 days between races; should work out a good-stalking trip while a wet track 2 back produced his career-best Beyer so is doing the rain dance for this also. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Southern Dunn

In her last appearance in this exact class (just over a year ago), she crushed the field to win by a pole while favored; since then, she has proven herself at various distances; consistent lass seems more than capable of being in the mix with a clean trip and will offer much better odds than in recent starts.

Cloudy Vow

Could not handle Parc Monceau last month but perhaps the sloppy track (her first attempt over such footing) was part of the reason; G2 stakes-placed filly may be worth some trifecta inclusion if overlooked in the wagering once again although a fast track would be preferable.

Majestic River

Lightly-raced daughter of the mighty A.P. Indy was in a demanding speed duel in that Sunland getaway race before tiring; steady, well-spaced, breezes during the last month suggest she is at the ready and perhaps can lead this group on a merry chase; top-notch connections in her corner; respect despite the light portfolio.

Parc Monceau

Very game in the last pair of narrow defeats and she seems hard to leave out of your exacta plans no matter what the track condition today; she has the luxury of having the probable target pacesetter breaking to her immediate left and that should give Rosario the chance to secure optimum stalking position; dangerous.

Oasis At Midnight

No factor in the last run as she continued her slow-breaking tendencies; perhaps she was intimidated by rail position in both of those defeats and now can improve with a clear, outside run; still believe she is a cut below the main contenders in this event.

Starship Pleasant

Her best Beyers have been on the turf yet the last defeat at huge odds can be dismissed because of the very soft pace that unfolded; will have to find a way to get into the race sooner than normal today because Parc Monceau and Oasis At Midnight are probable pace controllers; needs top effort. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Santa Mia

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a turf start; she did attract a little wagering support in her career debut and perhaps the move to turf can help her.

Showtime Jesse

Sire wins with approximately 18% of his first-time starters and he's won with 1 of 9 (11%) of his turf starters, and dam was winless from five starts, and she didn't make a turf start; her workouts look okay and this really doesn't look a bad spot to show up with the firster.

Heaven Help Me

She's shown a little early speed routing, but the early pace in here will be much more demanding; winner from latest won next out at Prx on 12/1 going 7f vs. N1X rivals with a 57 Beyer; this filly is a 1/2 to Sammy Maudlin (1-9, 92k, and all of her starts were over turf).

Bachata Dancer

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 14 turf starts for 69k; her career debut wasn't an encouraging performance, but that race was originally scheduled for turf and she wasn't ignored in the wagering.

Cleveland

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and minor stakes winning dam won 9 of 25 starts for 231k, including 7 of 18 turf starts for 189k; high win percentage barn has won with just 4 of 47 (9%) first-time starters the past five years.

Contrail

Sire wins with approximately 4% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 10 of 29 starts for 166k, including 0-for-3 over turf; her early speed can prove to be a key in a turf dash like this and like to see the rider switch to Lopez.

Lucky Black

To this point in time, her better races have been run over dirt, and even though the turn back in distance might help her for her third turf attempt, she's really going to need to improve over her recent form in order to have a say in the outcome.

Guns At Dawn

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from four starts, and she didn't make a turf start; prefer to see a race out of this inexpensive purchase before considering backing her.

Margarita Island

Pioneer of the Nile is off to a good start as a turf sire, and this filly is a 1/2 to Live the Dash (8-40, 149k, including 5 of 19 turf starts for 77k), but it's tough to build a favorable case in her direction based on what she's shown so far.

Addar

She's put together a few decent performances racing over turf and this is the lowest level she's been entered at to this point in time, but not sure if she's going to care for the turn back in distance.

Somewherebeautiful

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam won once from 18 starts for 51k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 21k; Calabrese-owned firster sports a number of workouts that hint at ability.

Rogue Lady

This has to be considered an ideal spot for this filly to make a serious bid at her first career win and she shows up for a high when percentage barn that does nice work with turf sprinters; runner-up from latest returned to win next out here on 2/12 going 5f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 73 Beyer.

Double Interest

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 20 starts for 34k, including 1 of 11 turf starts for 16k; maybe the move to turf can help, but this filly hasn't shown much in her first four starts.

Concorde's Fizz

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was winless from five starts, and she didn't make a start over turf; wouldn't be shocked if the Generazio-homebred proved to be capable of better over turf.

Senorita Sangria

Not wild about what this filly has shown in her first two starts, including a start over turf in her latest outing, and she's obviously going to need to produce a sharper performance in order to contend.

Starship Mystique

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from one start, and she didn't make a turf start; winner from latest won next out here on 1/16 going 7f vs. 16k claimers with a 58 Beyer, and 3rd finisher won next out here on 1/18 going 1m over turf vs. 35k MCL's with a 57 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Six Queens

Arrived on the local scene with a big first out score at the trip before failing to go on at a short price in the slop while subsequently trying winners here last season; lightly raced 5 year old draws the fence for her first start in nearly 11 months but she's run faster than most of these have of late and we know that she's capable of firing off drills; one to fear first time back.

Yes Im Sweet

Steps up seeking her third straight local score after besting conditioned claimers in her first start of the year; she's shown solid early interest of late and there's not a whole bunch of speed in here so maybe they send her from this inside draw; she'll have an added half panel to deal with here but must be considered in her current form.

Tap Twenty One

Makes her first start since the summer when she proved little threat in the Saratoga route stake; filly did break her maiden at one turn last spring and she has been working well for her return, but have to think she'll be better at distances longer than this when stretched out with this one behind her; maybe her late kick helps get her a share.

Currency Union

Wasn't beaten much in her last at the level last month; filly did get a hot clip in front of her in that one, but she has proven capable of sitting a close tracking trip and staying; added trip may be a concern, especially since she doesn't look to get a clip in front of her like last time; prefer others on the win end.

Unseen Visitor

Cuts back to sprint after trying the slop in her second start of the year; filly did run ok sprinting out West last summer and maybe she has a little extra to offer late at this trip, but neither of her wins has come on dirt; Rosario does see fit to get back aboard, though, and the barn does excel with its runners cutting back to shorter trips.

Best Behavior

Improving filly was quite good beating cheaper from a tracking spot over the track last month and now she'll tackle better in her first off this sharp barn's claim; she clearly likes the local main track and she figures to secure a spot up with the pacesetters from the bell here; looms a dangerous repeat threat.

Big Belief

Tracked a hot clip but was unable to threaten the top 2 finishers and the runner up returns in this spot as well; she does figure to be better with her first start in 7 months behind her and she worked last week like she is ready to offer more here; worth a look.

Coconut Shrimp

Stakes placed turfer makes her first start since the summer when she ran into a runaway route winner at the level in New Jersey; she did win first time out so maybe she doesn't need to be raced into shape for a barn that excels with its returnees and their top pilot gets aboard for her return to sprinting; consider. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Hurricane Pass

Re-claimed off latest career-best Beyer speed figure racing on a wet-main track which has been his best racing surface; still has a lot to prove on turf; the last grass start was an August-outrun line vs. maidens; lone win was on the lead but broke slowly in 2 starts with winners.

Imaginethatmom

Today gets the easiest spot since the September maiden breaker competing in 4 straight stakes while 4 of these exit maiden wins; returns to turf the surface of his 2-back field-best Beyer speed figure when passing rivals too late; was badly overmatched facing graded-stakes company he should appreciate the class relief today; the 3-back winner repeated in a GP-100K event with an 86 Beyer.

Steve

Won at shorter while stamina has been an issue for his races at 1 Mile or over; was primed for this in a stakes event while today he can be claimed; defeated by Imaginethatmom and the 3-back winner who repeated in a GP-100K stakes next out with an 86 Beyer; figures to stalk the speed then hopes to find enough stamina to win going this far; have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Predicting

Sire is 0-for-1 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 1-0-0-0 grass dam; claimed for the lawn?; the trainer is 0-for the last-16 first turf; debut win over a less-than-fast main track so he is doing the rain dance; 1st blinkers is a 1-for-14 angle since 2013 for his trainer; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 86 in his next-out PRX-allowance win.

Proud Azteca

1 of 4 coming off the maiden breaker lots of upside off the debut win; new rider pops 32% winners for the trainer; 47 days since the debut win placed 1st via DQ; the race looks better since the winner Beyered 68 in his next-out 35K-maiden-claiming graduation; high-percentage fresh trainer stretches him out to 1 Mile which goes along well with his rallying-debut style.

Contributor

1st turf race was a gate-to-wire win but then sat midpack in last which produced a new Beyer Top; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 60 in a next-out CD-50K-maiden-claiming win; figures to be forwardly placed especially coming off his sharpest-5F workout on the tab.

Kenai Warrior

Faded in both prior route attempts; catches a field with some other front runners which compromises the upset hopes; a tough call here off the 2-back loss vs. Ba Ba Brett while today getting a negative 2-pound weight swing off the more than 2-length loss.

Ba Ba Brett

Game on the lead to win going this far on grass while not nearly as effective on a sloppy track in last but got his feet wet so to speak vs. winners for the 1st time; would have to fend off the other speed then the closers late but fits well here looming as a major presence from bell to finish.

Telcontar

Exits a career-best Beyer when fading on the lead; his best races are when forwardly placed from the gate; exits a new Beyer-career Top despite tiring; adds to the pace here with Ba Ba Brett noting his lone win was when placed 1st; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Genteel Citizen

Debut win looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 55 in his next-out GP-25K-maiden-claiming win; sire is 18-for-196 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 3-0-1-0 (3K); 1 of 3 foals to race on North American turf is a winner (2-for-8 grasser Turkish 78K); high-percentage 1st off the claim trainer is winless with her last 37 grass starters.

Rumblefortheroses

1 of 4 runners taking the class leap off the maiden breaker; 51 days to regroup off his career-best Beyer 1st time on GP turf; showed gameness in his debut loss on BEL grass at 1 Mile; lone concern here is the widest draw and ground-losing post; figures to work out a good trip stalking Telcontar and Ba Ba Brett. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Galloping Giraffe

She's three races removed from a stakes score, but her complete lack of early speed is always a concern, and she has to prove that she can be at her best racing over turf; runner up from latest won next out at Aqu on 2/7 going 6f vs. 50k OPC's with an 82 Beyer.

Antonia Autumn

The next time she runs a bad race over turf will be the first time and this lightly raced 5-year-old is a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Gio Ponti (12-29, $6.1 million, including 11 of 24 turf starts for $4.4 million); Leparoux has won with 3 of 9 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Stick to Your Guns

She surprised a field in her first start back from a layoff in her latest outing, but that level of performance hasn't been the norm for her, and she can't afford to take a step backward against these; respect the presence of Rosario, but leaning toward others.

Tree Hugger

Not only is she light on winning form after 25 starts, but her best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to get the job done in this spot, and she is seeking her first win over turf in her 15th turf attempt; she looks like more of an outsider.

Bold Kitten

She's run well in her three starts over turf and this will be her first turf start since moving into the Maker barn; winner from latest won next out at Crc on 1/17 going 1 1/16m vs. 16k OPC's with a 72 Beyer, and Castellano has won with 19 of 40 (48%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

White Rose

Stakes placed filly can pack a strong stretch punch on her best day and like the idea of her dropping in class for her first start as a 4-year-old; she looks like she can be tough to deal with in this spot and the winner from her latest race returned to win next out here on 2/15 going 1 3/8m over turf in a G3 with a 92 Beyer.

Eastern Atlantic

Maybe this mare deserves another chance to see what she can do racing over turf, and she adds blinkers for this, but to this point in her career her better races have been run over synthetic surfaces; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out at Crc on 2/8 going 1m vs. 40k OPC's with an 84 Beyer.

I'm Your Luv

Looking at this as being a tough spot for her first start back from a layoff and this mare might actually be looking for more distance to work with down the road; runner-up from latest returned to win next out at Hou on 2/10 going 1m vs. 20k OPC's with an 82 Beyer.

Sonja's Angel

There are a few horses in the main body of this race that have shown the ability to run their race over dirt but this will have to be considered a favorable spot for this mare to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf; Castellano has won with 4 of 12 mounts for this barn at the current meeting. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Lovely

Pulpit about 10% with first-time turf runners in a 442-runner sample; sire won debut by over 7, won 3 of next 4 including the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; dam was 0 for 4; several multiple races winners in the family; top earner Multiple Choice took multiple Grade 3s, won on turf once, banked nearly $700K; has right to improve.

Sassy Salsa

She appeared to find her level last time and now jumps up again; why?; runner was 5 clear in last; lone half bro did graduate on grass; top last-race Beyer in the resume; note wraps re-added last time; must be left in the mix.

Little Michelle

Tiz Wonderful about 23% with debuters in a 108-runner sample, 3 for 38 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won a Grade 2 as a juvenile, banked over $250K, never turfed; 7 for 24 dam earned about $85K, never turfed; the sibling to win Prisoner of Hope took 7 of 29, earned over $100K, never turfed; wonder how high expectations can be for this $2K purchase?

Chief Dante

The shorter trip figures to benefit this miss; lone sibling won once, lost only turf out; like the series of drills since the last effort; note he was troubled in his first 2 starts; seems to be coming up to a big race.

Scatcapade

Scat Daddy about 14% with debuters in a 168-runner survey, about 15% with first-time turf runners in a 121-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, won multiple Grade 1s, earned over $1.3 million, never turfed; 3 for 13 dam earned over $100K, was never on grass; all 5 siblings won; 2 tried grass to no avail; kin Hot Escapade banked nearly $200K; respect everything from this barn.

Riding Point

Speightstown about 12% with first-time grass runners in a 254-starter grid; sire was champion sprinter of 2004, earned over $1.2 million, was never on turf; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Fancy's Secret

Pomeroy about 14% with debuters in a 138-runner grid, 2 for 52 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, won a couple of G1s, banked almost $850K, lost only turf start; 2 for 11 dam lost 3 times on grass; lone full sis took one sprint, lost only turf try; she looks fit enough.

Wv Mountain Momma

More Than Ready about 14% with first-time turfers in a 531-runner study; Grade 1 winning sire won debut at 2, earned over a million, never turfed; dam 0 for 5; lone full sister Audacious Chloe won twice at 2, won stakes on grass, banked over $300K; needs a turn around.

Sum Kinda Fabulous

Wildcat Heir about 17% with debuters in a 312-runner survey, about 15% with first-time turf runners in a 158-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, went on to bank over $400K, was never on turf; dam 2nd in best result; 2 of 4 sibs won, both tried grass to no avail, sibling Leave of Absence banked nearly $300K; tab snappy move on 2/2.

Curlin On By

Curlin 13 for 103 with debuters, 10 for 53 with first-time turfers; sire didn't race at 2, won a ton Grade 1s as a Horse of the Year, banked over $10 million, was 2nd in lone turf try when beaten 2 in a G1; dam lost only start; all 8 siblings won; 2 cashed on grass, none were monsters; may need experience. - Brian Mulligan