Gulfstream: Closer Looks for February 13, 2014

Race 1

Don't Tell Patti

Last was a beaut as she was freaky big; question is, was that mainly a function of the wet track?; could be; after all, her prior races were decent but nothing like THAT, and she was already proven on wet ground; then again, she also dropped to face low-range claimers ($6,250) so maybew that was key; Quiroz claimed her and of course that claim slip had to go in before the race so maybe it wasn't just the slop, that maybe she's peaking....maybe.

Vianney Lane

New face has been a pro for a while - hey, you don't win 8 times by accident; been working primarily in the Northeast but she's handled PIM turf, PIM dirt, PEN slop, LRL turf, LRL dirt and LRL mud so odds are she'll handle this place; that notion is bolstered by 2 nice recent works here, too.

Love Shack (IRE)

Had things going along very well last year into the summer but aftera good 3rd on turf at MTH Aug. 3 things have tailed off - 2 not-so-hot outing, a layoff and 3 dull showings here; freshened again and drops in price as they hope that class move can get her back on track; but could it be that time (she is a 7yo now) and all those furlongs have taken their toll, hmmmm?

Zeffee

Toss her last 2 turf starts and you're left with 4 nice outings over this track, including a big win at this distance Oct. 19; of course, that came vs. cheaper restricted so this is a tougher spot, and it's a little disconcerting, too, that after that she was nowhere in a turf start Dec. 15 and now hasn't been seen since.

Italian Rose

Won her only prior local start, so that bodes well; form has been mixed the past few months, though - won gamely at CRC Nov. 17, was a well-beaten 4th there Dec. 14, then 3rd there Dec. 22 and no factor when 6th there Jan. 18; Quiroz did see fit to claim her that day (4 for last 15, 27%, off a claim) and brings her back without a tag attached.

Repentless Lady

Good news is she comes out of a key heat (produced 2 next-out winners); bad news is she was no factor (6th, beaten 20 1/4 lengths) so she may not deserve bonus points for exiting a key heat, and today's foe Don't Tell Patti ran 3rd far in front of her; there is some other good news, though - her prior form was excellent as she won 3 of her prior 5; 2 of 4 wins have come here and she handles this trip; scary if she returns to her pre-Jan. 12 form, though after that Jan. 12 run that's no small 'if', is it?

Shalala

Caught slop here Jan. 9 and enjoyed it as she gamely prevailed; of course, those were cheaper restricted foes and while she liked the goo, if she catches mud again there are a couple others in here who love that footing as well; and while she did win gamely last time, posting a career-top Beyer, that fig ain't gonna have these others quaking in their shoes (56).

I Ain't Gonna Lie

Rattled off 3 straight fine wins here in the fall, earning Beyers of 77, 80 and 80; so what happened last time when she was no factor at any point?; well, maybe it was just one of thsoe days; Catalano saw fit to claim her and at least there's no layoff since, though he did claim her for $25K and is now willing to lose her for just $10K; that's a tad worrisome - hey, they don't giveaway anything out here; at least you know she likes the track and certainly a return to her prior form would make her a factor - but that's the big issue, isn't it?

Three B's

All 5 wins have come at this distance, so that's nice, and her last win came at this trip on THIS track, too; that being said, that was over a year ago (Jan. 25, 2013) - she hasn't really been a factor in 5 starts since, including her last 2 which came on this track at this trip vs. somewhat similar. - Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Minstrel Road

Improved second-time out when fifth in his local debut, from which the sixth horse exited to topple $16K maidens with a 65 Beyer; he drew ideally on the rail, and shortening up to a two-turn sprint might be to his benefit; looks dangerous with Leparoux back in the saddle.

Jonathan C

Hasn't shown much since the fall of 2012, and is shareless in three outings at this stand; experienced a rough trip most recently, and you can also draw a line through his poor race which came off the grass a week earlier Jan. 10; on the edges.

Bythe Grace of God

Was beaten a combined total of nearly 61 lengths in his two starts, in the slop and on the lawn; gets a rider switch to the bug Gonzales, who has his work cut out for him this afternoon.

Swear

5yo has four shares to his credit from 11 trips postward at seven different tracks; his last effort under similar circumstances as these was one of his best, and the live bug Davis takes over here from Leparoux, who's sticking with Minstrel Road; a must-use underneath in all exotics.

Graffitist

Exhibited signs of life when he plunged to this price from maiden special company nearly a month ago; has lost Leparoux to Minstrel Road, but Jaen is a capable replacement; son of Distorted Humor could have a say in the outcome.

Dark Winter

Got drilled in each of his four excursions, all on the dirt; the late Gone West sired 11% first-time turf winners, and the dam was a G3 stakes winner on the grass; dam's thrown one turf winner from three starters on that surface; has nowhere to go but up.

Gridiron Great

Longtime maiden finished on the edges in his last few, which included a troubled third at this price and distance; his new rider is 0 for 13 at the meet for this barn, which has struggled to find the winner's circle here; possible for the bottom of vertical wagers.

King Dix C

King Cugat has sired 7% debut winners, and his progeny have scored at an 11% clip first-time on the turf; versatile dam, who banked $174K, lost her only grass outing, and she's been a poor producer; Plesa is 0 for 18 with first-timers on turf over the past five years.

The Culchie

MTO ran decently over the dirt on occasion in New York; got wiped out on the far turn in a recent turf experiment, and his trainer has a juicy ROI with turf/dirt runners; trainer/rider combo is 1 for 6 at the meet. - Ron Gierkink

Race 4

Tri Polar

Up a notch today but it still worth considering as he is one versatile veteran who has a distinct preference for this oval; likes controlling the pace but there are several other speeds in this contest which comes up very strong for the price tag involved; difficult call.

Untethered

Route speed and sprint speed are two different animals but this gelding set some superior internal fractions when going long in the tally 2 back; trainer excels with the turnback angle yet this runner has never fared well at today's common distance; conflicting signals indeed.

Rodan

Do not think he is one-dimensional because he has rated to victory more than once in the past; can be forgiven the last attempt as seven furlongs is simply not his optimum distance and he was in need of that outing anyway; subsequent half-mile breeze is an encouraging.

Crowns Dynasty

Newcomer to this oval has fair gate speed but earned his best Beyers when getting away free and clear; that will not be the case today unless there are several key late scratches; believe he will wilt under early pressure.

Mia's Rocket

Inherited second when the pacesetters collapsed last month yet still turned in one of the better performances of his career; does not have the back class of some of the primary contenders today though and seems up against it; cannot recommend for the top spot.

County Gun

Yet another pure speed to consider but he was clearly beaten by some of these same foes when failing to hold the early advantage last time out; top efforts have been when he was able to control the tempo throughout; likely to be caught up in a duel yet again.

Grand Jetsetter

Lightly-raced runner will be dismissed by most bettors despite the fact that he has a perfect local exacta record; has more than one gear and appears to be steadily improving but must spot weight to far more experienced rivals; gets a true test for character today.

Quiz Whiz

At the top of his game now and he was a bargain claim 2 back; gets ideal race flow with so many runners intent on the lead here; unless there is a golden rail, he has a solid chance to earn that hat trick today; very legitimate contender. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Twigazuri Strait

Seemed to turn the corner at the end of 2012/start of 2013, and even after 6 months off he came back to run big at SAR; however, the pattern since is worrisome - another 4 months off and 2 so-so outings on turf here this meet; at least there's no big panicky drop by Nihei and it's also nice to see Velazquez Jr. take the call; but geez, could he have worked much slower than he did on turf at PmM Feb. 3 (4fs in :54.40, 43rd fastest off 55 that day), hmmmm?

Greengrassofyoming

Solid 3rd in a spot like this here Jan. 3 shows him a good fit; lone win came over this course at this trip, too, though that was way back in Dec. 2012; had a troubled start and was no factor when 6th vs. optional claimers here Jan. 3 but he's back to the level of that good Jan. 3 win and could certainly rebound - though he's yet to beat winners.

Make It Gold

Good news is he comes out of a key heat Dec. 8 on AQU's big main track (race produced 2 next-out winners); bad news is he was no factor, finishing 8th of 10 so he may not deserve too many bonus points for exiting a key heat; more good news, though, is that was dxirt and he's back to his preferred footing today; proven fresh, is NOT offered for a tag by Servis who is pushing all the right buttons this meet (7 for first 27, 26%); Servis/Lopez are also a strong 11 for their last 35 (31%) together.

Anmaat

Came out firing in his debut here Jan. 16; not only was it on this course but it came going a mile and it's no easy feat to debut going long; a great sign that while McLaughlin offered him for a tag that day he takes no such risk of losing him here in start No. 2; all that being said, it's first time vs. winners and while he was game in victory it's not as if the Beyer was any great shakes (71); still, there's talent here and obviously plenty of upside as well.

El Jefe Grande

Lone win came on this course at this trip, though you have to go back 11 months to find it; at least has done some good work vs. winners including 2 2nds vs. N1X foes on CD sod last June and a decent 4th in a stakes here last July 20; was then gone 6 months, came back and finished decently here Jan. 26; can move forward off that race, though it's worth noting that while Saez was up for that decent return he ends up maiden-winner Anmaat today instead, so read into that what you will.

Stallwalkin' Dude

5th behind today's foes Cage Fighter (1st) and Uncle Gare (2nd) here Dec. 26 but that was in a race washed off the turf; it was also his first start in 3 months; set a brisk pace under pressure on turf here Jan. 26 and hit the brakes; nice to see no big drop in for a tag; still, 2 best races came sprinting on dirt, and neither sprinting or dirt applies today.

Whisper Onthe Wind

Finished strongly for 3rd at this trip Nov. 2 but some bad acting (he bore in) got him DQ'd to 9th; still, that was a real nice run and a 4th good run in 5 starts; trouble is, things have gone south since as he was no factor in his next 3 starts; at least made up some ground here Jan. 10 but that was vs. lesser.

Cage Fighter

Despite his far outside post he's the one to beat; ran 2nd (DQ'd to 8th) on turf at IND last July 9, ran 2nd on turf at KD for $50K Sept. 18 (claimed), went to CD and beat maidens on turf Nov. 2, came here and won nicely over $50K N2L rivals in a race washed off the turf Dec. 26; in other words, he can handle any footing and comes here in peak form; strong 5f work Feb. 2 (1:00.40B) says he holds his edge, too.

Uncle Gare

MTO would love to get a crack at a bunch of turf horses playing his game should this come off, though it's worth noting that a) his lone win came on turf, and, b), he got beat by today's foe Cage Fighter in a race washed off the turf here Dec. 26; so, even if this is played his way he has to turn the tables on a Cage Fighter and just 1 2nd in 3 wet-track starts hints this may not be his favorite game, either. - Michael Hammersly

Race 6

Wild Conceits

Landed on the edges last time in a higher optional starter, which came on the heels of his victory over $25K maidens; trainer scored at a 12% clip with first-time Lasix-users during the last five years ($1.54 ROI); half-brother to G3 stakes-winning sprinter Bear Tough Tiger is worth a long look in this wide open event.

Courage Belongs

Didn't beat much when he graduated in his final 2yo outing over Woodbine's quirky Polytrack; colt is listed with blinkers on in what will be his first start on dirt, over which he's been working quickly; just watching today.

El Botas

Dragged his rider to the front before fading to fifth when he went back to the main track following a botched turf experiment Jan. 10; trainer/rider combo is 0 for 10 at the meet, and Catanese won at a 5% clip with turnbacks on dirt going back five years ($0.54 ROI); maybe for a piece.

Cee 'n O

Beat several of these when he toppled $25K opposition in the slop with a solid 73 Beyer after a two-month break two weeks ago; Ness has fabulous numbers first-time off the claim, and is 4 for 12 at the meet when using Saez; among the more likely ones.

Arangol

Plodder wasn't an impact player in recent optional starters, and is shareless since earning his diploma for $32K here Nov. 10; he might be at his best as a closing sprinter, but is in need of some class relief.

Take Time to Pray

Was claimed for the second straight time when a chalky second three weeks ago, by a trainer who's been shut out first-time off the halter switch since the beginning of 2013; front-runner has other speed to contend with here, and might be poised to run a clunker.

He's Got Talent

Set a lively pace in the slop before finishing a clear second behind Cee 'n O in a recent $25K seller; Attard has a 19% strike-rate first-time off the claim in the past five years ($4.18 ROI); should be the controlling speed under Davis, who's 1 for 5 at the meet when he's gotten a leg up from Tino.

Ta Bueno

Didn't disgrace himself in his debut outside the maiden ranks in a $25K tilt two weeks ago, when a belated third behind two of his current rivals; closer has some speed to chase here if the field remains in tact; could make some noise if the track isn't favoring inside/speed. - Ron Gierkink

Race 7

Stormbee

Cozy slot after flashing career speed; there is an 8-time sprint winner in the family but that lone sibling lost twice on grass; could see him forcing the pace, not sure he'll be around at the end.

Ten and Four

Shut off in the slop but lack of speed is a concern; backers can point to the fact there is a one-turf winners in the tree; capable barn due to get rolling; don't ignore.

Laws of the City

Three clear in last and he is on the improve; the sibling that tried grass was 2nd in best turf moment beaten nearly 4 in an Arlington sprint; colt seems to be racing himself into shape; rates long look in all the slots.

Rayonnant

Zensational 0 for 9 with first-time turfers; sire won multiple G1s, lost only start at 2, never turfed; 5 for 10 dam took debut at 2, earned $65K, was never on turf; 3 of 4 siblings won; 2 tried grass to no avail; top kin Biglie Smallworld did bank over $250K; backers have to hope the drop shakes him up.

Desenhado

Like the way he was getting to the winner and note show horse was nearly 4 clear; backers can point to the fact there is a multiple Group 1 grass winner in the tree named Good Ba Ba, who banked over $7 million; slight improvement and he'll be right there.

Legislation

In for $15K more than purchase price; dam's lone win was a dirt route; this is her first to race; needs to show more.

Rumble Time

After Market 6 for 65 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2 won two Grade 1s, banked over $900K, was turf only; stakes placed 2 for 17 dam banked over $150K, was turf only; both siblings won including double grass winner and near $100K earner Canadian Flag; drilling solidly for this and the he has to be respected on the drop.

Spanish Ranch

He flashed some semblance of speed 2 back but form leaves much to be desired; dam took one sprint, lost only turf out; 3 of 4 siblings won; 2 won on grass including triple grass winner and over $100K earner Casa Tua; not sold on chances.

My Little Jet

Colt bobbled early and never got untracked; backers can hang their hat on fact one sibling won once on grass in the minor leagues; has some things to prove.

Keep It Pithy

Soph caught career speed and could not keep up in last; note rider 2 for 7 for this barn in the last year or so; must be left in the hopper.

Golden Nugget

He can be his own worst enemy conceding so many lengths early; can't be thrilled with the defeats vs. softer and published moves on the light side. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Ocean Seven (IRE)

Drops after chasing a couple of solid fields in each of his last 2 starts; he did run well behind one of these on the Calder lawn 3 back and it looks like his late running style will get an honest clip to run at here, but he could find himself with a lot to do in the lane; prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Alicantino

Showed a solid turn of foot while making a middle move to the lead on the drop to straight claimers last time, but he had little left late; while he could again find himself involved in pace, his recent stamina issues raise concern for his ability to factor when the real racing begins; prefer others for the money spots.

O Wanderlust

Didn't have much to offer after a poor start in his first local turf start; gelding has yet to hit the board in 4 career surface spins and there's not a lot to suggest he'll go much better this time; can't make a case for him regardless of price against these.

Broome Street

Hasn't hit the board in either of his turf starts and though it came against much better than he'll face here, his recent main track spin was pretty weak; maybe the drop to this level helps and he has jumped up with some big ones of late, but have to side against him over this surface.

Officeinthevalley

Held on to defeat a similar bunch in his first off this barn's claim at Calder and now he'll make his local debut; 7 year old did show some tactical foot in that last one, but he was able to secure that good trip through slow splits and the number he earned wasn't much; prefer to side against the repeat.

Roman's Avenue

Speedy colt steps up to face better after wiring limited winners in his second crack over the local sod; moderate clip helped him go on in that one and maybe he's a little more engaged from the bell in this one; gets a solid replacement as his pilot opts elsewhere and will probably still need to be run down.

Tom Kitten

Took a step back when beaten just a half length at 2-5 in his Calder finale; gelding was sharp in both of his prior surface cracks and though he's settled for plenty of minor awards over the local sod he's clearly fast enough to handle this bunch on his best; they'll have him to beat.

Countryman (GB)

Import gets Lasix for the first time in his stateside debut; gelding did most of his running at sprint trips overseas and now he'll tackle 2 turns in his first start for this new outfit; unless he takes unusual tote support we'd prefer to look elsewhere.

Hugo Light

Six year old wasn't beaten much in either of his last 2 spins over the Calder sod and now he'll return to the green after fading while in for a cheap tag on dirt last time; gelding hasn't run particularly fast, though, and was beaten by several of these; his local sod record has us backing others on the win end.

Vanquisher

Off the pace type draws outside while entered for the optional tag after running out of ground on the slight stretch back out to this trip; 10 year old owns numbers that fit but the starting spot is no bargain and he could again find himself with a lot to do in this heat; minor award.

Sir Leslie

MTO tries better after running down limited winners in the local off the turfer last month; he's had some time since the career best Beyer score and we know he can handle the wet footing he'll likely get if this one comes off the lawn; consider.

Palatine Hill

MTO gets a top pilot if rains move this one to dirt; he was sharp from gate to wire when sent off at odds on here last month, but that open claiming heat was significantly slower late than the conditioned heat won by the guy drawn to his inside here just one race later; speed should have him involved from the bell.

Three Part Harmony

Twice beaten chalk tired from his pace efforts at Calder last month and now he'll move to the outside slot if he gets to go; MTO does lure Castellano and he always shows early foot but he has yet to win over wet footing and he'll have to work hard from the bell to secure the top from out here; still, he's overcome tough pace scenarios to score in the past; contender if the rains come. - Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Slazarra

Shortest-distance test today since the August-career debut defeat; late runner's lone win was accomplished on a wet-main track at longer; sire is 23-for-349 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 2-0-0-0 grass dam; 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-5 combined; hot-GP jockey-trainer combo but the barn is 1-for the last-14 with dirt-to-turf starters.

Marnesia Wild Heir

Has been a new runner since front wraps were removed for her December start/maiden win; exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when rallying like a wild horse at longer; getting up in time to win it all is the major concern; reunites with the 3-back win rider who scored with her at today's distance but on a wet-main track so wouldn't mind this washed off the weeds.

Fortune Pearl

Just 2 races during career so has upside still; the debut victory looks better since the show runner posted a 55 Beyer speed figure in her next-out TAM-32K-maiden-claiming graduation; 1st time away from TAM turf and cutting back in distance are 2 main issues.

Ultra Violet

Turf debut represents a career-best Beyer when no match for Marnesia Wild Heir who follows her here; she has not fired in 3 races vs. winners; is still seeking the correct level; the 3-back winner repeated in a CRC-starter allowance with a 70 Beyer.

Ten Easy Street

Leaves a 41%-win barn and any runner making their 1st start away from a high-win percentage trainer is not a good angle; adds blinkers for the 1st time seeking answers off latest middle-moving loss vs.Fortune Pearl; beat the September runner-up finisher when graduating that one Beyered 66 in her next-out KD-MSW score.

Leeleegoteven

Needed every inch of 1 Mile to win latest while cutting back to 7.5F today does not add to the appeal while it is her 1st-GP grass attempt; has more than a dozen lengths to make up from the debut loss vs. Ultra Violet on dirt but she's been a better runner on grass but seems doubtful she would turn the tables.

Early Glory

Not a good sign that her 1st start off the claim represents a career-low Beyer; sire is 0-for-22 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 2-for-7 grass dam (74K); 1 of 3 foals to race on turf is a grass winner (1-for-6 Sacred Sky 12K turf); 1st time racing without blinkers today seeking answers; the show runner from last Beyered 60 in her next-out GP-50K-claiming win.

Principessa Gina

Do not see many claimed off trainer Pletcher that go on and do great things; she regressed 1 Beyer point in the 1st start away from Pletcher while fading behind Marnesia Wild Heir; logically the cutback to her win distance would be more appealing but has a lot to prove away from her win barn.

Bee Wane

Was claimed off a career-best Beyer and hasn't fired back to that dirt-sprint effort in 2 races since; was necked for the show money in last by a runner who scored next out in a GP-50K claimer with a 60 Beyer; sire is 14-for-111 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-8 grass dam (15K); 2 of 6 foals to race on turf are grass winners (2-for-14 Isle of Prado 94K turf).

Defying Gravity

Keeps the win rider for her 1st test vs. winners; figures to race close to the lead while hopes she doesn't fade like in the debut loss vs Principessa Gina; 5%-winning grass trainer is 1-for the last-14 with repeat winners; view as a pace presence for part.

Poor Etiquette

Great sign that her lawn debut was a win and new Beyer-career Top; won a key-graduation race defeating the 4th and 9th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 59-46 in next-out GP-35K and $12,500-maiden-claiming wins; the 2-back winner repeated in a GP-16K claimer with a 58 speed figure. - Art Gropper