Graded stakes analysis: Sorrento Stakes

CAVAL
Some promising 2-year-old fillies line up here, and odds are you’ll see a few of these again in another month when this track cards the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. But first things first.

Favoritism may well fall to SUNSET GLOW, who opens as the 2-1 favorite. After all, the daughter of Exchange Rate was a very smart winner on turf at Belmont Park June 6, beating boys no less. That was enough to earn a trip overseas to Royal Ascot June 20 where the Wesley Ward trainee was a very nice second in the Group 3 Albany. She couldn’t handle big winner Cursory Glance but there were 19 fillies who finished behind her. She’s come home, been given time to regroup and a bullet :59.60 5-furlong work here July 30 says she’s doing well and ready to fire.

Well, she better be. That’s because she’s facing some nice gals, notably CAVAL. The daughter of Blame, best known as the only horse to finish in front of the great Zenyatta, that in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, made quite a first impression. The filly, who cost $150,000 at auction, came out smokin’ for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer in her June 19 debut at Santa Anita. Under Elvis Trujillo, who rides again Wednesday, she ran right out to duel for the early lead, took command turning for home and opened up to win in a laugher. She didn’t just win clear (5 1/2 lengths); she did it geared down. That’s heady stuff.

Oh, and for you speed-figure guys and gals out there she earned a very smart 83 Beyer Speed Figure.

Yes, it’s first time vs. winners and first time on synthetic Wednesday so there are hurdles. But the manner of her win stamped her a comer and being by Blame there’s every reason to believe she’ll get better with more ground. She won her debut at 5 furlongs; Wednesday’s Sorrento is 6 1/2 furlongs, which should play well for her.

There’s pedigree to encourage, too, as she’s kin to Derbaas (8 wins, $505K, Group 2 winner and placed in Dubai, Group 3 placed in England. She opens as the 5-2 second choice. Don’t be shocked, however, if the money rolls in here and she ends up a slight favorite over SUNSET GLOW.

That foe, as noted, is absolutely legitimate and unlike CAVAL is proven against winners and proven on synthetic (ran second in her debut on Presque Isle Downs’s Tapeta Track May 13).

There are others with promise here but the top two appear to hold the strongest hands. One who does rate a look as a possible spoiler is LA GRANGE. The daughter of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who is proving a very smart sire, showed some synthetic track ability when second in her debut on Arlington’s Polytrack June 8. She shipped West, stalked the pace in the 6-furlong Cinderella at Los Alamitos July 13, took command into the lane and powered clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths. The added half-furlong here should play well for her.