Graded Stakes Analysis: Prairie Meadows June 28, 2014

G3 Iowa Derby By Marcus Hersh

VICAR’S IN TROUBLE is a tepid 3/1 favorite over 7/2 EMBELLISHING BOB in the Iowa Derby, but I doubt that’s the way the race will be bet. Trainer Mike Maker’s shippers tend to take huge action at tracks like Prairie Meadows, and the standard handicapping perspective will see Vicar’s In Trouble’s best race as far above what any of his rivals have produced.

And I can’t really argue with that. Vicar’s In Trouble, since he burst to prominence with a brilliant Louisiana-bred maiden sprint romp, has been a faster horse than anyone in the Iowa Derby. I thought early this winter he’d be a need-the-lead type in routes, but he has proved rate-able, and will do what his rider asks. The take-back tactics in the Risen Star didn’t work all that well, but keep in mind that winner Intense Holiday (RIP) was a fine prospect, and that runner-up Albano came back with a romping stakes win last weekend: Both horses would be solidly favored in this spot.

Moreover, Vicar’s In Trouble, despite a vigorous winter-spring campaign, should be relatively fresh. Not only has been off since the Kentucky Derby, he basically did no running that day after nearly being put over the inside fence during a typically rough homestretch run into the first turn. He’s got a great draw for an ideal pressing / stalking trip, and his elite athleticism running turns should put him on a clear lead coming into the relatively short PRM homestretch.

I was more interested in JESSICA’S STAR before watching his May 31 win in the local Prairie Mile than after seeing it. Jessica’s Star has a two-turn pedigree, and perhaps he didn’t handle turf in his only previous route try, but I thought the horse looked more comfortable winning his one-turn 7fs allowance than the two-turn mile last time. He failed to ever change leads in the stretch, and perhaps that contributed, but I wanted to see him put some distance on the horses behind him that night. His stalking style could fit the race shape, though, and there is a chance he can improve second time long on dirt.

Bayern’s romp in the Woody Stephens flattered EMBELLISHING BOB, who got within a nose of Bayern in the Derby Trial and was put up to first on a disqualification. The horse was flat from start to finish last out at Belmont, and even if you forgive that (I can) he is a touch iffy stretching to a two-turn 8.5fs. Trying to wire the field from the rail seems like the most plausible scenario.

Illinois-bred I GOT IT ALL has crushed suspect opposition but is tackling stronger foes while shipping and trying two turns for the first time. Doubt it. CHARGE NOW has won two straight and his brother won the Kentucky Derby, but he got an easy lead versus just four foes last out, and looks no better than several longer-priced exotics alternatives here.

G3 Iowa Oaks (race 7, post 10:11 p.m. ET) By Marcus Hersh

Assuming this field of 9 holds together, this is a fascinating race with all sorts of moving parts. Starting with asking whether you should just throw out Ria Antonia (#4, 5-1 M/L), whose owner has been instrumental in an unproductive 3yo campaign (so yes, we’re inclined to), there are others worthy of questioning, namely Sugar Shock (#5, 5-2) … doesn’t the way she struggled to win at 1-5 over the PrM surface suggest she might have peaked at OP this winter, especially with the poor Ky. Oaks effort on her form? She, too, must be viewed skeptically.

Thank You Marylou (#7) is the preferred choice, given how she’s been regrouped since her solid Oaks effort. In addition, the race shape (i.e., plenty of early speed) and her running style suggest things could play in favor of this Maker-trained filly and Cornelio Velasquez.

The play: key #7 in verticals with several others who could be a decent price, including Awesome Jill (#1), New York shipper Size (#3), Tiz Windy (#6), and two-time CD winner Senior Prom (#8). For the sentimentally inclined, Tiz Windy’s beloved owner-breeder, Jim Tafel, passed away this week at age 90.

The Cornhusker (Prairie Meadows Grade 3, Race 9) by Randy Goulding

GOLDEN TICKET is easily the class of the field and if he runs his best race he is going to be tough to handle. He is coming back pretty quickly, however, and excluding his second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, his best races came when he was coming off lengthy layoffs. Nonetheless, the past five years McPeek has a 29 percent strike rate with horses coming back in 15 days or less that were running in Graded Stakes. This is GOLDEN TICKET’S easiest spot since he romped here following his second in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster last year and is clearly the one to beat.

GROUND TRANSPORT either bounced in the Grade 2 Brooklyn or found 1 1/2 miles beyond his reach. He’ll appreciate moving back to the distance he earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in a minor stakes at Laurel March 22.

CARVE looked good winning a $62,500 optional race on the same day GOLDEN TICKET finished fifth in the Foster. Toss his race in the Pimlico Special and he’s been pretty solid in all of his starts as a 4-year-old. The only knock is he has come up empty in three starts at the distance.

ERIUGENA wasn’t a factor in the Brooklyn but he may have bounced after earning his career-best Beyer Speed Figure in a $62,500 optional claiming race at Churchill two back. He is lacking in class but there is a lot of potential speed in the field and the shape of the race could work in his favor.

BELLARMINE is also a bit weak in the class department but he owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and is a pretty sharp horse right now. The horse that beat him two back finished a close fourth in the Grade 2 Dixie on the turf at Pimlico in his next start and then won a $200K stakes going two miles on the turf at Belmont.

We’ll use GOLDEN TICKET on top and below GROUND TRANSPORT and CARVE in the exacta and use ERIUGENA and the improving BELLARMINE as the main players below them in the exotics.