Graded stakes analyses: Arlington Park

G3 The Stars and Stripes by Randy Goulding

SUNTRACER hasn’t won going this far but he just missed to Grade 2 winner War Dancer in the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap in his last start and anything close to a similar performance wins this. He also didn’t get beat by that much in the Grade 2 Elkhorn running over a track rated good at Keeneland in his previous race, and the only major concern is the 6-time winner hasn’t actually won a race since October 6, 2012. Nonetheless, he came close to winning this race last year, has been facing mostly tougher company, and he appears to be on top of his game right now. He has certainly worked well enough leading up to this and the past five years his trainer, Chris Block, has a 19 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days that were running in turf routes.

SUNTRACER has performed well over surfaces that were less than firm but struggled over yielding courses. If does come up wet we would probably head towards THE PIZZA MAN.

THE PIZZA MAN is clearly the main threat and the only small concern is that he is going to be going 12-furlongs with just a single race behind him this year. Nonetheless, the past five years Brueggemann has a 21 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff so he could take a big step forward here. The only time he went this far was in this race last year where he finished a nose behind SUNTRACER. He went into it with three races behind him, though.

None of the horses in the field has a win in a graded race on turf in North America but the Brazilian-bred OLYMPIC THUNDER won a Grade 1 in his home country, and he was just a neck short of winning the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup going this distance at Kentucky Downs last year. He also figures to be forwardly placed in race they probably won’t be in any hurry early.

SETON HALL is a sharp horse right now and has a win at the distance. He should be included in the exotics.

MISTER MARTI GRAS probably doesn’t want to go this far and he’s entered in the Arlington Handicap where he seems better suited to the 1 /4 miles distance. We’ll assume that is where he is headed.

SUNTRACER looks playable if the track isn’t too soft and he goes off close to his 3-1 morning line odds. We’ll key him on top of THE PIZZA MAN, OLYMPIC THUNDER and SETON HALL in the exotics. MORO TAP, third in the Louisville in his latest, should also be considered for the exotics.

G3 Arlington Handicap Analysis By Byron King

WAR DANCER is in peak form, coming off a game victory in the Louisville Handicap after a runner-up finish with a wide trip in the Elkorn at Keeneland. Although both races were going longer than the Arlington Handicap’s distance of 1 ¼ miles, this horse has won at this trip, winning the Virginia Derby at 1 ¼ miles last summer; must further respect his consistency on turf – he has been first or second in 10 races on the lawn. ADMIRAL KITTEN won the Secretariat on this course last year at 3, and began the year with a win in the John Connally at Sam Houston. But he has gone unplaced in his last three starts, and can’t match the top one on current form. FINNEGANS WAKE is just 2 for 20 and seemingly an unlikely winner, but is a price horse to throw on the bottom of the exotics. He has kept quality company this year and could rally for a slice.

G3 Modesty Handicap By Marcus Hersh

The Modesty Handicap, well, it’s a 14-horse skullbuster. No two ways about it.

Let’s start with the few horses I don’t think can win, and would use in exotics only to cover near-random results: Embarr (1), Street of Gold (2), Maid on a Mission (11), and the also-eligible, should she draw in, Wave of the Wand. Those are all 30/1 shots, but there are other 30/1s I could see sneaking into the trifecta – namely the two Chris Block-trained horses, I O IRELAND (10) and ALETTE (12).

I’m not especially keen on the chances of DANCE AGAIN (7), FRIVOLOUS (8), ANA LUISA (9), nor even I’M ALREADY SEXY (13), and since the latter two are 6/1 and 8/1 on the morning line (I’d guess the 6/1 is too low and the 8/1 is too high, but they’re in the ballpark), we’re getting a little somewhere.

That leaves, to this way of thinking, the primary contenders EVERY WAY (3), GULSARY (4), KEPI (5), TABREED (6), and WHITE ROSE (14). It’s a lot, but it’s ,manageable, and I suppose on a main pick 4 ticket (this is the cashing leg of an all-stakes 50-cent pick 4 with a $100,000 guarantee) these are the horse’s I’d use – while feeling like I’d left too many out.

I might have taken White Rose on top had she not drawn post 14. During the last 10 Arlington meets there have been only two turf races between nine and 10 furlongs that went with 14 runners, but the wide-draw post stats in such races are discouraging: Posts 11 and wider have gone just 4-109 the last decade, while posts 10 and wider are 13-219. White Rose is a 4-year-old with upside who just broke through with a career-best performance in a Churchill allowance race, and it’s encouraging to see come back with two sharp dirt works since that race, but she will have to be spectacular to win from this draw.

Every Way has a much better post, 3, and is appealing at anything close to her 15/1 morning line. This is a turf horse who has made only one of four starts this year on turf. She lost that race, a minor Houston Stakes, but ran well in defeat, rallying strongly into a very slow pace to just miss. The fact she’s by City Zip might produce skepticism concerning Every Way’s suitability to this 9.5-furlong trip that’s farther than she’s ever raced, but she has His Majesty in the third generation of her female family and Blushing Groom in her fourth, and my guess is Every Way, who ran well on this course last season, is going to stay the trip. Her tactical speed also is a plus in this bulky field.

Gulsary took a few starts to find herself this year after a solid fall-winter campaign in SoCal, but she appears to be back on form now, though I’m not entirely convinced she’s quite good enough to win. Kepi, an Illinois-bred, has a small but loyal legion of supporters. She’s 17-19 third or better in grass races, but personally I’ve never regarded her as graded-stakes quality.

Tabreed makes her first start since November, but the fact trainer Christophe Clement has been blanked for a couple years with long-layoff comebackers in graded stakes is one of those trivial stats waiting to be busted up by a good-priced winner. She definitely stays, and not to go all jockey-oligist, but the fact the barn brings Joe Bravo in to ride – and that Bravo brings himself from his cozy MTH base -- seems a positive vibe.

Best of luck, and remember – spread if you can.

G3 American Derby By Marcus Hersh

Rain, rain stay away. We want to see what SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS can do on a firm turf course, please.

Sadly, the rain might be coming, with storms considered likely now (60% chance via Nat’l Weather Service) Friday night into Saturday. We can’t say that Schoolofhardrocks won’t handle a wet course, but considering his two grass races came on low-cut, fast-playing SoCal grass, the prospect of taking a short price on a yielding or soft course feels highly unappealing.

And I do think Schoolofhardrocks will be a short price. He’s 3/1 on the morning line, but there’s a buzz, and the colt will look good on speed figures as well as to anyone who has seen his most recent race.

That race was his first in blinkers and first in a turf route, and in it Schoolofhardrocks put everything together. Granted, it was an N1X allowance, but he faced older horses, and as trainer Wayne Catalano pointed out regarding his entry here of the maiden winner HIGHBALL, a 3-year-old stakes often is no more difficult than a major-meet N1X turf allowance against elders this time of year.

Distance does not seem an issue for Schoolofhardrocks, and unless he fails to perform on unsuitable going, he looms a favored winner.

I don’t have a good read on DIVINE OATH, the Todd Pletcher-trained ship-in who’s 7/2 on the line. Did he win that pair of 7.5fs turf races at Gulfstream this winter – defeating solid 3yos Ring Weekend and Big Bazinga – because the distance was ideal, or did he win despite the distance, and is a horse that wants more ground?
Divine Oath rallied mildly in the Penn Mile, a race that seemed good enough at the time, but one that took a little hit when its one-two finishers, Bobby’s Kitten and Global View, ran poorly in the Belmont Derby. It’s also interesting that this horse, who comes from the immediate family of Personal Ensign and generally doesn’t have a glaringly turf-leaning pedigree, has never been tried on dirt. I’m going against him.

If the course does take rain, upgrade the chances of Euro imports CHIEF BARKER and OUR CHANNEL. Chief Barker has disappointed in his two races this year. He beat the ill-fated high-class Chriselliam last season in England, and was purchased privately – in great part for the Arlington 3-year-old turf series – late last year. His American Turf at Churchill was a total dud, but Chief Barker did show signs of life in the Arlington Classic, and his win over Chriselliam came on good-soft turf.

Our Channel got here last weekend. Feel free not to hold his Epsom Derby against him. Suffice it to say, this is not the Epsom Derby: Beyond quality, this race is at one and three-sixteenths miles, not a mile and a half, and Our Channel’s best win, in the Derby Trial, came at roughly this trip. The colt has pace and could be a factor from start to finish at fair odds.

AFORTABLE was an eye-catching Keeneland turf winner in his 3-year-old debut, and was victimized by falling much too far behind a slow pace when favored in the Arlington Classic. This race hardly is speed-laden, but expect Afortable to be more forwardly placed.

Highball won a Churchill maiden turf route last out and HEISINFRONT tallied there in a first-level allowance at two turns on grass. But while the latter is one class advanced over the former, I’m not sure which one is better – or if either is quite good enough.