Goulding: Woodbine pick four for Sunday, Sept. 13
It is hard to resist the late pick four at Woodbine. It has a guaranteed pool of $500,000, and it includes the Grade 2, $300,000 Canadian for fillies and mares and the Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile.
The sequence starts with the Canadian in Race 9. My top pick in what appears to be a wide-open race is HOOP OF COLOUR (3). She is undefeated in two starts in North America, and her second win came in the Grade 2 Santa Ana at Santa Anita on March 15. She can fire fresh, and over the past five years, her trainer, Graham Motion, has a 23 percent strike rate with horses going a mile or longer on turf while coming off a layoff of 180 days or more. STRUT THE COURSE (4) won the Grade 2 Dance Smartly going the same distance on this course and is coming off a solid effort on Polytrack in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron. I’ll also use BUTTON DOWN (2) and UCHENNA (7).
Race 10: OBVIOUSLY (1) hasn’t raced since he finished fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita on Nov. 1, but he runs well as a fresh horse and has reportedly been training extremely well in California. Three of the last nine horses trainer Phil D’Amato brought back from a layoff of 180 days or more who were going a mile or longer won. Obviously should be able to set a moderate pace over a turf course that has been known to favor speed. GRAND ARCH (2) is the obvious threat. He looked great beating Ironicus in the Grade 2 Fourstardave at Saratoga, and Ironicus came back to set a track record in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga on Sept. 15. I will also add REPORTING STAR (11), who upset the Grade 2 Play the King going seven furlongs, and LEA (10). Lea is better on dirt, a Grade 1 winner, but he also won the Grade 3 Commonwealth on turf as a 3-year-old.
Race 11: TURN TO REALITY (5) looks like the one to beat. She broke a step slow and got hung out pretty wide on the first turn in her narrow loss at this level Aug. 23. It was her first start running on Lasix and wearing blinkers. She could be tough to handle if she leaves there running. I’ll also use CRACK THAT WHIP (6) and KAVIKA (8).
Race 12: PADDY POINT (5) ran well when she debuted on Polytrack, and she should love the move to turf. She is by $1.2 million earner Paddy O’Prado, who won the Grade 1 Secretariat over the Arlington Park turf course. Her dam won on the lawn and placed in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo as a 2-year-old. Over the past five years, Paddy Point’s trainer, Ashlee Brnjas, has a 26 percent strike rate with horses racing on grass for the first time. I’ll also use CONQUEST VALKRIE (8) and LA SOUL (9).
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