Goulding: Woodbine pick four for Sunday, July 5
The early pick four at Woodbine on Sunday is guaranteed to have $150,000 in the pool, and I am going to build a ticket around (7) BELIVEAU in the first leg of the sequence.
Beliveau overcame a poor start to handily win his debut on Polytrack and came back to beat open company when he tried turf in his second start in the $132,000 Victoria on June 20. The stewards took his number down for bumping with runner-up Hollywood Hideaway in the late stages of the six-furlong race. Nonetheless, it was a solid effort, and he should appreciate being back on the main track while facing Ontario-breds.
The only concern is that he is coming back pretty quickly. He is in excellent hands with trainer Mark Casse though, and he’s reunited with Patrick Husbands, who rode him to his impressive win. Adding to his appeal is the DRF Formulator Fact that over the past five years in non-graded stakes at Woodbine, Casse and Husbands have teamed up to win at a 26 percent rate.
In race 5, (6) PUNTROOSKIE is clearly the horse to beat, and if he beaks alertly, he is probably the winner. However, he has been known to spot his opponents a few lengths at the start, so I’ll add (1) SNIPER, (2) CONSTANTINO, and (3) FLASHY MARGARRITTA.
Sniper just missed in both of his starts this year and attracts the services of the leading rider. Constantino beat Sniper in his first start this year and then had a brutal trip in his next start. Flashy Margaritta took a huge step forward in his second start in 2014 and could do the same here after tiring in his initial outing of 2015 on June 14. He also looks like the one they will have to catch.
(5) B C BUD should be a short price to win race 6. He just missed in his first two races and could be sitting on a peak effort. (6) MECHANICAL ran well in is first and third starts and got stuck on the rail two back. (10) GUITAR GEORGE was favored in both of his races as a 2-year-old and has been working well enough. (11) LIGHT EM UP has a strong set of works showing and comes out of a barn that can have them ready to roll first time out. His dam won the Grade 3 Duchess, and all four of his siblings to race are winners.
(2) WATSDACHANCES looked great in winning the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico in her first start as a 5-year-old, and anything trainer Chad Brown runs on turf has to be respected. She is the obvious favorite in the Grade 2, $200,000 Dance Smartly, which ends the sequence. (4) SOLID APPEAL is an appealing longshot. She won this race in 2013 and could turn things around with the blinkers going back on. Plus, there isn’t a lot of speed in the field, and she figures to be forwardly placed. (7) STRUT THE COURSE, the 2014 champion older mare in Canada, had a rough trip in the Grade 2 Nassau and figures to take a big step forward in her second start this year. (8) SKY TREASURE has to prove she can handle the distance, but she loves this course and is coming off a sharp win in the one-mile Nassau.
The ticket:
Race 4: 7
Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 6: 5, 6, 10, 11
Race 7: 2, 4, 7, 8
The $1 ticket will cost $64.