Goulding: Belmont early pick four for Sunday, June 2, 2019

With possible severe thunder showers in the afternoon, I decided to focus on the early pick four instead of the late one, where anything can happen if the storm shows up. If you can forgive (5) RECESS for being eased in the slop in her last start, she looks formidable in the first leg, race 2. It is a bit of a gamble, but it might be worth building a small ticket around her.

Race 2: Either of Recess’s two races on turf would likely be good enough to win this $40K maiden claimer, and the drop into a maiden claimer for the first time makes sense. Adding to her appeal is that over the past five years, trainer Todd Pletcher has a 37 percent strike rate and a $2.15 ROI with horses moving from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. Horses of interest for larger tickets are (4) WICKED WATERS, (6) MOYNE SPUN, and (11) ROSSELINI. Wicked Waters makes his first start for Bond, who can put one over at a price, and he has strong numbers with new shooters. Rossellini takes the plunge for Mott and could move forward in just her third start.

Race 3: (3) POTOMAC is the logical horse. He has been freshened since he won the $166K More to Tell, and his 100 Beyer Speed Figure stands out. He does his best running late though, and not sure he’ll get an honest pace to work with. (5) COLTANDMISSISSIPPI looks like the one they will have to run down, and he should be full of confidence following his sharp win going seven furlongs at this level May 11. He’s never won going this far on dirt, but he has on turf, so this should be within his reach. (1) MIGHTY MANFRED didn’t fire in latest in the slop at Oaklawn, but he is capable of winning with his best stuff, and first off the claim for Asmussen can be a good thing.

Race 4: Some kind of argument could be made for any of the horses in the field, so hitting the all button in a puzzler.

Race 5: Was looking at a serous play with (6) ATHWAAQ but had to regroup after she was scratched. (1) ALLEY TO CAVALRY gets back to her favorite surface and could make a big impact in her second start for Levine. (3) MOM I FORGIVE YOU improved substantially in her first start on turf. Blinkers off can be a good thing for a horse with speed, and along with Jose Oritz, that’s what you get with (7) DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS. She also ran okay on turf earlier in her career. (8) AVOCADO TOAST drops to a new low, and considering the winner and runner-up in her last both came back to win $75,000 stakes races, she is going to appreciate the substantially easier company.

Here’s the 50-cent ticket, which costs $36: 5 / 1,3,5 / all / 1,3,7,8